Maurice Wilkinson

A Quarterly Econometric Model of United States Livestock and Feed Grain Markets and Some of Its Policy Implications

This paper discusses the structural equations, forecasting properties, dynamic characteristics, and economic policy implications of a quarterly econometric model of U.S. livestock and feedgrain markets. Quarterly, semi-annual, and annual endogenous variables are incorporated by allowing individual structural equations to be estimated and to enter into the solution of the model with different periodicities. Commodity prices are determined by market equilibrium conditions rather than by autoregressive and other time-series techniques. Dynamic multipliers give the effect of changes in corn exports, beef imports, government grain stocks, corn yield, consumer income, and the support price for corn on producer and retail prices and acreage planted.

Contribution of the ocean sector to the United States economy.

The national income accounts have been reorganized to estimate the contribution to the gross national product of the ocean sector and its various subsectors for the year 1972. The new account is the first within the national income accounts to be organized along geographic, rather than productive, sectors. If properly updated and disseminated, this new account will give government and business interests a solid and consistent data base to measure, and choose among, the alternative uses of the oceans.

Aggregate inventory behavior in large European economies

Abstract Inventory fluctuations are known to be an important propagation mechanism for U.S. business cycles. This paper compares the significance of inventory fluctuations in the U.S. with four other major industrial economies in Europe. A general model of aggregate inventory demand is specified which seeks to encompass the models presented in recent studies of inventory behavior. This model is estimated for the large European economies —United Kingdom, West Germany, France and Italy. The preferred models that result from this analysis are compared with the empirical evidence for the U.S.

Stabilization policies for united states feed grain and livestock markets

This paper studies economic policy toward feed grain and livestock markets by applying optimal control theory to a quarterly microeconometric model. The results indicate that: (1) farm prices and the retail cost of meat can be stabilized by optimal control relative to unregulated markets, (2) the support price for corn and beef import controls are the most effective instruments while management of corn stocks is neither necessary nor a substitute for other instruments, (3) beef import controls are essential to stabilize producer prices for livestock commodities and (4) there is a definitive limit to the stabilization gain that can be achieved by a more intensive use of the instruments.

Forecasting Accuracy of the McGraw-Hill Anticipatory Data

Abstract This study analyzes the forecast accuracy of the McGraw-Hill (M-H) anticipations with one- to four-year horizons of investment, sales and capacity for major manufacturing industries for the period 1948–71. Average absolute percentage errors are presented for each anticipation series. In comparison to the BEA survey of one-year investment anticipations, the M-H data are generally less accurate. On the other hand, in forecasting experiments the M-H series are shown to be more accurate predictors than several naive statistical models and yield lower forecast errors than the accelerator and neoclassical econometric models of investment behavior.

Evidences of Long Swings in the Growth of Swedish Population and Related Economic Variables, 1860–1965

T HIS paper presents evidence of long swings in the growth of Swedish population and investigates the question of the possible sources or causes of these demographic movements. I do not have a completely identified model of long swings to offer for empirical testing at this time. It is first necessary to determine the extent to which the long swings are diffused in Sweden and to provide a reliable reference chronology. With this information, the task of seeking the cause and effect relationships can proceed. Nevertheless, an analysis is attempted of the cause and effect relationship underlying Swedish emigration and the interaction of the major economic and demographic variables. In the light of these results, suggestions for further research are offered.

Consumer Demand for Meat and the Evaluation of Agricultural Policy

This study utilizes an econometric model of equilibrium in the U.S. livestock and feedgrain markets to investigate a number of questions of economic methodology and policy. Both nonlinear consumer demand equations that obey the constraints of neoclassical demand theory and a model of supply are used. This approach allows for the measurement of the effects on consumer welfare of actual government policies. In particular, the model is employed to analyze the welfare effects of an actual policy situation — the sale of U.S. grain to the Soviet Union in the third quarter of 1972.

An economic analysis of the international transfer of marine technology

Abstract This paper develops a general economic framework for the analysis of international technology transfer, provides an analysis and categorization of countries, and concludes with a case study on the Peruvian fish‐meal industry. The economic framework focuses upon the impact of technology transfer on the resource allocation choices of a country and the analytical techniques or models available to facilitate the making of these choices. The optimization of investment is first considered and then the discussion is broadened to include the concepts of an efficient technology frontier and a social‐welfare function. The paper also dwells upon cost‐benefit analysis and other measurement techniques relevant to technology transfer and social‐choice considerations. A categorization of countries, using several indicators, is then attempted with need, potential, and interest as the determining parameters. Finally, the Peruvian fish‐meal industry is considered as a case study with the theoretical arguments deve...