Maurício Cortez Reis

Desemprego: o custo da desinformação

The relationship between skill and unemployment rate is an inverted U-shape and youth unemployment rate is 2.5 higher than adult unemployment rate in Brazil. This paper argues that these facts are due to asymmetric information in the labor market. Semi-skilled workers have higher asymmetric information because they are a very heterogeneous group and their educational level offers little information to the employer about the workers productivity ability. The asymmetric information is higher for young workers because some information about the productivity is revealed as the worker accumulates experience in the labor market. Assuming that asymmetric information leads to homogeneous wages, the evidences are consistent with our hypothesis. The employers have less information about the young and semi-skilled productivities and asymmetric information is positively correlated with unemployment rate.

Escolaridade dos pais, desempenho no mercado de trabalho e desigualdade de rendimentos

Parents’ education is highly associated with workers’ performance in the Brazilian labor market. Then, family background may play a role in determining the astonishing level of income inequality in Brazil. Using data from the social mobility supplement of the 1996 PNAD (Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicilio), this paper investigates the relationship between labor earnings inequality and schooling of the parents of the workers. The results show that parental education, both through its influence on the educational level of the workers and on the returns to schooling, is related tothe unequal distribution of labor earnings in Brazil, although the former channel seems to be much more important.

Os Impactos das Mudanças na Demanda por Trabalho Qualificado sobre o Desemprego por Nível de Qualificação durante os Anos Noventa no Brasil

O aumento da taxa de desemprego no Brasil durante a decada de noventa foi muito mais intenso para os trabalhadores com niveis mais baixos de qualificacao. O objetivo deste artigo e avaliar o papel das mudancas na demanda por trabalho qualificado para as diferencas observadas nas trajetorias do desemprego por nivel qualificacao. Para isso, e utilizado um modelo em que a economia esta sujeita a choques agregados, que incidem sobre todos os tipos de trabalhadores da mesma forma, e choques relativos, que representam mudancas na estrutura da demanda por trabalho. Usando dados da PNAD (Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicilio) de 1990 a 1999 sao estimados os parâmetros do modelo a partir do qual sao calculados os impactos de cada um dos choques sobre as variacoes nas taxas de desemprego por nivel de qualificacao. De acordo com as evidencias empiricas encontradas, choques relativos levaram a um aumento na demanda por trabalhadores qualificados em comparacao com os semi-qualificados e os nao-qualificados, resultando em uma reducao do desemprego dos qualificados em relacao aos demais grupos.

Sheepskin Effects and the Relationship Between Earnings and Education: Analyzing the Evolution Over Time in Brazil

This paper seeks to analyze trends in sheepskin effects and earnings-education relationship on the Brazilian labor Market from 1982 to 2004. Using data from PNAD – the Brazilian National Household Sample Survey – are estimated earnings equations including linear years of schooling, and splines and discontinuous functions for completed degrees, as well as semi-parametric regressions. Empirical evidence reports a reduction in the sheepskin effects from 1982 to 2004, indicating that a diploma or degree completion in Brazil has been loosing its value over time. At the same time, the relationship between log earnings and education has become more convex. Similar trends are verified when the analysis is carried out separately by region.

Desemprego dos jovens no Brasil: os efeitos da estabilização da inflação em um mercado de trabalho com escassez de informação

Apos a estabilizacao da inflacao com o Plano Real em 1994, a taxa de desemprego dos jovens no Brasil aumentou significativamente em relacao aos adultos. De acordo com o argumento proposto neste artigo, a maior rigidez salarial provocada pela estabilizacao da inflacao e o elevado grau de incerteza dos empregadores sobre a produtividade dos trabalhadores mais jovens foram importantes para explicar esse resultado. Como parte das informacoes sobre a produtividade e revelada com a experiencia no mercado de trabalho, a estabilizacao deve ter limitado a capacidade das firmas ajustarem o salario real a medida que adquirem mais informacoes sobre os trabalhadores jovens. Com isso, os ajustes nas situacoes em que a produtividade do trabalhador se revela inferior ao salario real passam a ser feitos atraves do emprego. Usando dados da PNAD para o periodo de 1981 a 2002 sao encontradas evidencias consistentes com esse argumento, ja que reducoes na taxa de inflacao parecem ter aumentado o desemprego e reduzido a duracao media do emprego de todos os grupos etarios, mas de maneira mais acentuada para os trabalhadores jovens.

Uma análise da transição dos jovens para o primeiro emprego no Brasil

This paper analyzes the probability of leaving unemployment for young first-time job seekers. Estimates indicate that the probability of finding a job seems to be positively affected by previous work experience. Also, young people who have been previously employed have similar unemployment spells to adults. Also according to evidence, the difference in exit probability between workers with previous experience and first-time job seekers is larger for good quality jobs.

Oferta de trabalho e ciclo econômico: os efeitos trabalhador adicional e desalento no Brasil

The discouragement effect was introduced by Long (1953). According to this effect, unemployed workers choose to leave the workforce during recessions, when expected wages and the likelihood of getting a job are lower. The added worker effect acts in the opposite direction. Reductions in household income during recessions could induce other members of the family to enter the labor market in order to maintain the level of consumption unchanged. The added worker effect has been estimated through the temporary entry of married women – whose husbands become unemployed – into the workforce. In this paper, we investigate empirically how the added worker and discouragement effects influence the labor participation rate in Brazil, using data from the PME. The added worker effect is represented by the difference in the probability of participation between wives whose husbands lost their jobs and wives whose husbands remained employed. The discouragement effect is estimated by the impact of changes in macroeconomic cycles, which are represented by deviations of the average labor earnings in each period from a given reference value, on participation. The results show that both effects play a role in determining the labor participation rate in Brazil.