Mauricio Lima

Review article. Studying climate effects on ecology through the use of climate indices: the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation and beyond

Whereas the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects weather and climate variability worldwide, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) represents the dominant climate pattern in the North Atlantic region. Both climate systems have been demonstrated to considerably influence ecological processes. Several other large–scale climate patterns also exist. Although less well known outside the field of climatology, these patterns are also likely to be of ecological interest. We provide an overview of these climate patterns within the context of the ecological effects of climate variability. The application of climate indices by definition reduces complex space and time variability into simple measures, ‘packages of weather’. The disadvantages of using global climate indices are all related to the fact that another level of problems are added to the ecology–climate interface, namely the link between global climate indices and local climate. We identify issues related to: (i) spatial variation; (ii) seasonality; (iii) non–stationarity; (iv) nonlinearity; and (v) lack of correlation in the relationship between global and local climate. The main advantages of using global climate indices are: (i) biological effects may be related more strongly to global indices than to any single local climate variable; (ii) it helps to avoid problems of model selection; (iii) it opens the possibility for ecologists to make predictions; and (iv) they are typically readily available on Internet.

Extreme climatic events shape arid and semiarid ecosystems

6 Climatic changes associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can have a dramatic impact on ter- restrial ecosystems worldwide, but especially on arid and semiarid systems, where productivity is strongly lim- ited by precipitation. Nearly two decades of research, including both short-term experiments and long-term studies conducted on three continents, reveal that the initial, extraordinary increases in primary productivity percolate up through entire food webs, attenuating the relative importance of top-down control by predators, providing key resources that are stored to fuel future production, and altering disturbance regimes for months or years after ENSO conditions have passed. Moreover, the ecological changes associated with ENSO events have important implications for agroecosystems, ecosystem restoration, wildlife conservation, and the spread of disease. Here we present the main ideas and results of a recent symposium on the effects of ENSO in dry ecosystems, which was convened as part of the First Alexander von Humboldt International Conference on the El Nino Phenomenon and its Global Impact (Guayaquil, Ecuador, 16-20 May 2005).

Mice, rats, and people: the bio‐economics of agricultural rodent pests

Wiley is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

El Niño–Southern Oscillation–Driven Rainfall Variability and Delayed Density Dependence Cause Rodent Outbreaks in Western South America: Linking Demography and Population Dynamics

It is well known that some rodent populations display dramatic density fluctuations in semiarid regions of western South America after the unusual rainfall levels associated with El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO) disturbances. These correlated phenomena have led some ecologists to believe that rodent outbreaks are determined solely by density‐independent factors (e.g., rainfall regime). However, demographic studies have detected strong delayed density‐dependent effects in one of the most irruptive rodent species, the leaf‐eared mouse Phyllotis darwini. We tested the effects of rainfall and delayed density‐dependent factors by constructing a structured model based on demographic data estimated from a capture‐mark‐recapture study of this species in Chile. A model including both rainfall and delayed density‐dependent effects predicts the observed population dynamics rather accurately over a 10‐yr period. Interestingly, small changes in model parameters result in large changes in model dynamics, which strongly suggests that local variations in demographic features are important in explaining the asynchronous pattern in outbreak occurrences. These findings suggest that inextricably intertwined endogenous and exogenous forces cause rodent outbreaks in western South America. The former are characterized by delayed nonlinear feedbacks, whereas the latter are characterized by the positive effects of the El Niño phases and the negative effects of the La Niña phases of the ENSO disturbance.

Population dynamics of two sympatric rodents in a variable environment: rainfall, resource availability, and predation

Precipitation plays an important role in the dynamics of species found in arid and semiarid environments. However, population fluctuations generally are driven by a combination of multiple factors whose relative contribution may vary through time and among species. We monitored fluctuations of species in three trophic levels for >17 years at a semiarid community in north-central Chile. The region is strongly affected by the El Niño Southern Oscillation, resulting in high variation in rainfall that triggers dramatic changes in food resource availability, with strong effects on upper trophic levels. We focused our analyses on the role played by endogenous and exogenous (climatic) factors on the dynamics of two important rodent species in the community, Octodon degus and Phyllotis darwini. We documented population fluctuations of several orders of magnitude in response to wet and dry episodes of different strength and duration. P. darwini reached similar maximum densities, regardless of the duration of high-rainfall events, whereas O. degus showed additive effects of multiple wet years. Time series diagnostic tools revealed oscillations with a 5-year periodicity in rainfall, which may be the cause of the same periodicity and a weak second-order signal observed in the rodent dynamics. However, the dynamics of both rodent species were dominated by strong first-order processes, suggesting an important role of direct density dependence. Intraspecific competition, expressed as the ratio of rodent density/rainfall (or food resources) explained more than two-thirds of the variation in the population rate of change, whereas less than one-third was explained by lagged rainfall (or food resources). We detected no significant effects of predation. Our results contribute to a growing number of examples of dynamics governed by the combined effect of density dependence and climatic forcing. They also reveal strong bottom-up regulation that may be common in other arid environments.

Predicting insect pest status under climate change scenarios: combining experimental data and population dynamics modelling

Climate change could profoundly affect the status of agricultural insect pests. Several approaches have been used to predict how the temperature and precipitation changes could modify the abundances, distributions or status of insect pests. In this article it is demonstrated how the use of simple models, such as Ricker’s classic equation, including a mechanistic representation of the influence of exogenous forces may improve our predictive capacity of the dynamic behaviour of insect populations. Using data from classical experiments in population ecology, we evaluate how temperature and humidity influence the density of two stored grain insect pest, Tribolium confusum and Callosobruchus chinensis, and then, using the A2 and B2 scenarios proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the previous modelling, we develop predictions over the future pest status of T. confusum along South America austral region, and specifically for eight cities in the continental Chilean territory. Tribolium confusum and C. chinensis show qualitatively different responses to the exogenous forcing of temperature and humidity, respectively. Our simulations predict a change in the equilibrium density of T. confusum from 10 to 14% under the moderate B2 scenario and 12 to 22% under the extreme A2 scenario to the period, 2071–2100. Both results imply a severe change in the pest status of this species in the southern region. This study illustrates how the use of theoretically based models may improve our predictive capacity. This approach provides an opportunity to examine the link between invasive species and climate change and how new suitable habitat may become available for species whose niche space is limited in some degree by climatic conditions. The use of different scenarios allows us to examine the sensitivity of the predictions, and to improve the communication with the general public and decision‐makers; a key aspect in integrated pest management.

Population dynamics of small mammals in semi-arid regions: a comparative study of demographic variability in two rodent species.

The seasonally determined demographic structure of two semi-arid rodents, both agricultural pest species (the leaf–eared mouse (Phyllotis darwini) in Chile and the multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis) in Tanzania), is analysed using capture–mark–recapture (CMR) statistical models and measures for elasticity (the relative change in the growth rate due to a relative unit change in the parameter of concern) derived from projection linear matrix models. We demonstrate that reproduction and survival during the breeding season contribute approximately equally to population growth in the leaf–eared mouse, whereas the multimammate mouse is characterized by a more clearly defined seasonal structure into breeding and non–breeding seasons and that reproduction contributes far more than survival during the breeding season. On this basis, we discuss evolutionary and applied (pest control) issues. Regarding the evolution of life histories (leading to a maximization of the overall net annual growth rate), we suggest that for the leaf–eared mouse, features favouring survival throughout the year will provide selective value, but that during the main breeding season, features favouring reproduction and survival are about equally favourable. For the multimammate mouse, features favouring survival are particularly important outside the breeding season, whereas during the breeding season features favouring reproduction are more important. Regarding pest control (aiming at reducing the overall net annual growth rate), we suggest that (ignoring economic considerations) affecting survival outside the main breeding season is particularly effective for the leaf–eared mouse, a feature that is even more the case for the multimammate mouse. In sum, we demonstrate through this comparative study that much is to be learnt from studying the dynamics of fluctuating small rodents––a focal issue within much of population ecology.

Population dynamics of a South American rodent: seasonal structure interacting with climate, density dependence and predator effects

Understanding the role of interactions between intrinsic feedback loops and external climatic forces is one of the central challenges within the field of population ecology. For rodent dynamics, the seasonal structure of the environment necessitates changes between two stages: reproductive and non–reproductive. Nevertheless, the interactions between seasonality, climate, density dependence and predators have been generally ignored. We demonstrate that direct climate effects, the nonlinear effect of predators and the nonlinear first–order feedback embedded in a seasonal structure are key elements underlying the large and irregular fluctuations in population numbers exhibited by a small rodent in a semi–arid region of central Chile. We found that factors influencing population growth rates clearly differ between breeding and non–breeding seasons. In addition, we detected nonlinear density dependencies as well as nonlinear and differential effects of generalist and specialist predators. Recent climatic changes may account for dramatic perturbations of the rodents population dynamics. Changes in the predator guild induced by climate are likely to result, through the food web, in a large impact on small rodent demography and population dynamics. Assuming such interactions to be typical of ecological systems, we conclude that appropriate predictions of the ecological consequences of climate change will depend on having an in–depth understanding of the community–weather system.

CHIHUAHUAN DESERT KANGAROO RATS: NONLINEAR EFFECTS OF POPULATION DYNAMICS, COMPETITION, AND RAINFALL

Using long-term data on two kangaroo rats in the Chihuahuan Desert of North America, we fitted logistic models including the exogenous effects of seasonal rainfall patterns. Our aim was to test the effects of intraspecific interactions and seasonal rainfall in explaining and predicting the numerical fluctuations of these two kangaroo rats. We found that logistic models fit both data sets quite well; Dipodomys merriami showed lower maximum per capita growth rates than Dipodomys ordii, and in both cases logistic models were nonlinear. Summer rainfall appears to be the most important exogenous effect for both rodent populations; models including this variable were able to predict independent data better than models including winter rainfall. D. merriami was also negatively affected by another kangaroo rat (Dipodomys spectabilis), consistent with previous experimental evidence. We hypothesized that summer rainfall influences the carrying capacity of the environment by affecting seed availability and the intensity of intraspecific competition.

Deciphering the Effects of Climate on Animal Populations: Diagnostic Analysis Provides New Interpretation of Soay Sheep Dynamics

Soay sheep on the island of Hirta exhibit periodic population collapses that have been proposed to result from nonlinear interactions between weather, population density, and age structure. Here we employ a diagnostic approach to reanalyze the data from 1985 to 2004 and find that climate mainly affects the equilibrium population size, thus acting as a lateral perturbation. From this, we derive a simple energetic model for a population interacting with its food supply in the presence of variable winter weather. This model explains the strong nonlinearity in the Soay sheep population regulation function and provides a framework for evaluating climatic perturbations. We examined two integrative climatic indexes, one representing effects on forage production and the other representing the severity of winter weather. Results suggest that the latter has the main effect on Soay sheep population dynamics. Models incorporating this variable provided fairly accurate predictions of Soay sheep population fluctuations. The diagnostic approach offers an objective way to develop simple, nonstructured population models that are useful for understanding the causes of population fluctuations and predicting population changes, provided they are based on a careful consideration of the underlying biological and/or ecological mechanisms.