Mauricio Lima Barreto

International study of temperature, heat and urban mortality: the ‘ISOTHURM’ project

BACKGROUND This study describes heat- and cold-related mortality in 12 urban populations in low- and middle-income countries, thereby extending knowledge of how diverse populations, in non-OECD countries, respond to temperature extremes. METHODS The cities were: Delhi, Monterrey, Mexico City, Chiang Mai, Bangkok, Salvador, São Paulo, Santiago, Cape Town, Ljubljana, Bucharest and Sofia. For each city, daily mortality was examined in relation to ambient temperature using autoregressive Poisson models (2- to 5-year series) adjusted for season, relative humidity, air pollution, day of week and public holidays. RESULTS Most cities showed a U-shaped temperature-mortality relationship, with clear evidence of increasing death rates at colder temperatures in all cities except Ljubljana, Salvador and Delhi and with increasing heat in all cities except Chiang Mai and Cape Town. Estimates of the temperature threshold below which cold-related mortality began to increase ranged from 15 degrees C to 29 degrees C; the threshold for heat-related deaths ranged from 16 degrees C to 31 degrees C. Heat thresholds were generally higher in cities with warmer climates, while cold thresholds were unrelated to climate. CONCLUSIONS Urban populations, in diverse geographic settings, experience increases in mortality due to both high and low temperatures. The effects of heat and cold vary depending on climate and non-climate factors such as the population disease profile and age structure. Although such populations will undergo some adaptation to increasing temperatures, many are likely to have substantial vulnerability to climate change. Additional research is needed to elucidate vulnerability within populations.

Health conditions and health-policy innovations in Brazil: the way forward.

Brazil is a large complex country that is undergoing rapid economic, social, and environmental change. In this Series of six articles, we have reported important improvements in health status and life expectancy, which can be ascribed largely to progress in social determinants of health and to implementation of a comprehensive national health system with strong social participation. Many challenges remain, however. Socioeconomic and regional disparities are still unacceptably large, reflecting the fact that much progress is still needed to improve basic living conditions for a large proportion of the population. New health problems arise as a result of urbanisation and social and environmental change, and some old health issues remain unabated. Administration of a complex, decentralised public-health system, in which a large share of services is contracted out to the private sector, together with many private insurance providers, inevitably causes conflict and contradiction. The challenge is ultimately political, and we conclude with a call for action that requires continuous engagement by Brazilian society as a whole in securing the right to health for all Brazilian people.

Effect of vitamin A supplementation on diarrhoea and acute lower-respiratory-tract infections in young children in Brazil

A beneficial effect of periodic vitamin A supplementation on childhood mortality has been demonstrated, but the effect on morbidity is less clear. We investigated the effect of vitamin A supplementation on diarrhoea and acute lower-respiratory-tract infections (ALRI) in children from northeastern Brazil in a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled community trial. 1240 children aged 6-48 months were assigned vitamin A or placebo every 4 months for 1 year. They were followed up at home three times a week, and data about the occurrence and severity of diarrhoea and ALRI were collected. Any child with cough and respiratory rate above 40 breaths per min was visited by a paediatrician. The overall incidence of diarrhoea episodes was significantly lower in the vitamin-A-supplemented group than in the placebo group (18.42 vs 19.58 x 10(-3) child-days; rate ratio 0.94 [95% Cl 0.90-0.98]). The benefit of supplementation was greater as regards severe episodes of diarrhoea; the incidence was 20% lower in the vitamin A group than in the placebo group (rate ratio 0.80 [0.65-0.98]). With the standard definition of diarrhoea (> or = 3 liquid or semi-liquid stools in 24 h) the effect of vitamin A on mean daily prevalence did not reach significance, but as the definition of diarrhoea was made more stringent (increasing number of stools per day), a significant benefit became apparent, reaching for diarrhoea with 6 or more liquid or semi-liquid stools in 24 h a 23% lower prevalence. We found no effect of vitamin A supplementation on the incidence of ALRI. The reduction in severity of diarrhoea may be the most important factor in the lowering of mortality by vitamin A supplementation.

Ambiente familiar e desenvolvimento cognitivo infantil: uma abordagem epidemiológica

OBJETIVO: Analisar a associacao entre a qualidade do estimulo domestico e o desempenho cognitivo infantil, identificando o impacto da escolaridade materna sobre a qualidade dessa estimulacao. METODOS: Estudo de corte transversal, com 350 criancas entre 17 e 42 meses, examinadas em 1999, em areas centrais e perifericas de Salvador, Estado da Bahia. Utilizou-se um questionario socioeconomico, o inventario Home Observation for Measurement of the Environment Scale (HOME) para mensurar a estimulacao no ambiente familiar, e a escala Bayley de desenvolvimento infantil. Foram realizadas analises univariadas e multiplas, por meio da regressao linear, considerando nivel de significância de 5%. RESULTADOS: Encontrou-se associacao positiva (beta=0,66) e estatisticamente significante entre a qualidade da estimulacao no ambiente domestico e o desempenho cognitivo infantil. Parte do efeito da estimulacao sobre a cognicao foi mediada pela condicao materna de trabalho e seu nivel de escolaridade. Verificou-se que as criancas ocupando as primeiras ordens de nascimento, convivendo com reduzido numero de menores de cinco anos, usufruem de melhor qualidade da estimulacao no ambiente domestico. Esse padrao de estimulacao se mantem entre criancas convivendo com seus pais, cujas maes possuem melhor escolaridade, trabalham fora e convivem com companheiros no ambiente familiar. CONCLUSOES: Confirma-se a importância da qualidade do estimulo domestico para o desenvolvimento cognitivo infantil, alem do relevante papel das condicoes materiais e dinâmica familiar. Os achados apontam a pertinencia de acoes de intervencao que favorecam a qualidade do ambiente e da relacao cuidador-crianca para o desenvolvimento cognitivo.

Successes and failures in the control of infectious diseases in Brazil: social and environmental context, policies, interventions, and research needs

Despite pronounced reductions in the number of deaths due to infectious diseases over the past six decades, infectious diseases are still a public health problem in Brazil. In this report, we discuss the major successes and failures in the control of infectious diseases in Brazil, and identify research needs and policies to further improve control or interrupt transmission. Control of diseases such as cholera, Chagas disease, and those preventable by vaccination has been successful through efficient public policies and concerted efforts from different levels of government and civil society. For these diseases, policies dealt with key determinants (eg, the quality of water and basic sanitation, vector control), provided access to preventive resources (such as vaccines), and successfully integrated health policies with broader social policies. Diseases for which control has failed (such as dengue fever and visceral leishmaniasis) are vector-borne diseases with changing epidemiological profiles and major difficulties in treatment (in the case of dengue fever, no treatment is available). Diseases for which control has been partly successful have complex transmission patterns related to adverse environmental, social, economic, or unknown determinants; are sometimes transmitted by insect vectors that are difficult to control; and are mostly chronic diseases with long infectious periods that require lengthy periods of treatment.

Effect of a conditional cash transfer programme on childhood mortality: a nationwide analysis of Brazilian municipalities

BACKGROUND In the past 15 years, Brazil has undergone notable social and public health changes, including a large reduction in child mortality. The Bolsa Familia Programme (BFP) is a widespread conditional cash transfer programme, launched in 2003, which transfers cash to poor households (maximum income US

Impact of the Family Health Program on Infant Mortality in Brazilian Municipalities

70 per person a month) when they comply with conditions related to health and education. Transfers range from

HTLV-I in the general population of Salvador, Brazil: a city with African ethnic and sociodemographic characteristics

18 to

Effect of BCG revaccination on incidence of tuberculosis in school-aged children in Brazil: the BCG-REVAC cluster-randomised trial.

175 per month, depending on the income and composition of the family. We aimed to assess the effect of the BFP on deaths of children younger than 5 years (under-5), overall and resulting from specific causes associated with poverty: malnutrition, diarrhoea, and lower respiratory infections. METHODS The study had a mixed ecological design. It covered the period from 2004-09 and included 2853 (of 5565) municipalities with death and livebirth statistics of adequate quality. We used government sources to calculate all-cause under-5 mortality rates and under-5 mortality rates for selected causes. BFP coverage was classified as low (0·0-17·1%), intermediate (17·2-32·0%), high (>32·0%), or consolidated (>32·0% and target population coverage ≥100% for at least 4 years). We did multivariable regression analyses of panel data with fixed-effects negative binomial models, adjusted for relevant social and economic covariates, and for the effect of the largest primary health-care scheme in the country (Family Health Programme). FINDINGS Under-5 mortality rate, overall and resulting from poverty-related causes, decreased as BFP coverage increased. The rate ratios (RR) for the effect of the BFP on overall under-5 mortality rate were 0·94 (95% CI 0·92-0·96) for intermediate coverage, 0·88 (0·85-0·91) for high coverage, and 0·83 (0·79-0·88) for consolidated coverage. The effect of consolidated BFP coverage was highest on under-5 mortality resulting from malnutrition (RR 0·35; 95% CI 0·24-0·50) and diarrhoea (0·47; 0·37-0·61). INTERPRETATION A conditional cash transfer programme can greatly contribute to a decrease in childhood mortality overall, and in particular for deaths attributable to poverty-related causes such as malnutrition and diarrhoea, in a large middle-income country such as Brazil. FUNDING National Institutes of Science and Technology Programme, Ministry of Science and Technology, and Council for Scientific and Technological Development Programme (CNPq), Brazil.

Effect of city-wide sanitation programme on reduction in rate of childhood diarrhoea in northeast Brazil: assessment by two cohort studies

OBJECTIVES We evaluated the effects of the Family Health Program (FHP), a strategy for reorganization of primary health care at a nationwide level in Brazil, on infant mortality at a municipality level. METHODS We collected data on FHP coverage and infant mortality rates for 771 of 5561 Brazilian municipalities from 1996 to 2004. We performed a multivariable regression analysis for panel data with a negative binomial response by using fixed-effects models that controlled for demographic, social, and economic variables. RESULTS We observed a statistically significant negative association between FHP coverage and infant mortality rate. After we controlled for potential confounders, the reduction in the infant mortality rate was 13.0%, 16.0%, and 22.0%, respectively for the 3 levels of FHP coverage. The effect of the FHP was greater in municipalities with a higher infant mortality rate and lower human development index at the beginning of the study period. CONCLUSIONS The FHP had an important effect on reducing the infant mortality rate in Brazilian municipalities from 1996 to 2004. The FHP may also contribute toward reducing health inequalities.