Mauro Rodrigues

Tecnologia e demanda por qualificação na indústria brasileira

The main aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between skill upgrading and measures of technology in Brazilian manufacturing for the last two decades. We use R&D intensity as a proxy for technological change. We find robust evidence of technology-skill complementarity, especially for the period between 1994 and 1997. Furthermore, when U.S. R&D intensity is used as an instrument for Brazilian R&D intensity, its impact on skill demand rises threefold. This provides us with evidence that technological transfer is impacting skill-upgrading in Brazil.

Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth: A Myth?

The impact of real exchange rate movements on GDP growth is a hotly debated issue both in policy and academic circles. In this paper we provide evidence suggesting that there is not a robust statistical association between misalignment and growth for a broad panel of countries. Controlling for country fixed effects, time effects and initial GDP, a more depreciated currency is associated with higher growth. However, this positive association vanishes after controlling for the savings rate. We do not find such positive relationship either for large panel of countries or for a subsample of emerging economies.

Previdência e Taxa de Juros no Brasil

O presente trabalho relaciona a alta taxa de juros real brasileira com o elevado gasto em previdencia sob um regime de reparticao. Para tanto, utilizamos uma versao padrao do modelo de geracoes sobrepostas, com um regime de previdencia misto (isto e, parte capitalizacao e parte reparticao). O modelo e calibrado para a economia brasileira no periodo 2000-2014. Considera-se um estado estacionario inicial de modo a reproduzir a taxa de juros real media nesse periodo, sob um regime totalmente do tipo reparticao. Simula-se entao uma mudanca para replicar os gastos em previdencia do Chile, um pais com um sistema majoritariamente do tipo capitalizacao. Em nossa especificacao preferida, o modelo preve uma queda de 1 ponto percentual na taxa de juros real (ao ano) de longo prazo. Isso corresponde a 18% do diferencial medio de juros entre Brasil e Chile no periodo 2000-2014.