Max Nielsen

Price Formation and Market Integration on the European First-hand Market for Whitefish

Total Allowable catches (TACs) for whitefish in European Union (EU) waters have been reduced each year for the past five years, thereby reducing fleet revenue. During the same period prices increased, partly offsetting income reductions. However, price changes depend on the structure of the market within which they are formed. Therefore, this paper examines the structure of the European first-hand market for whitefish. A Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model in Error Correction form (ECM) is used to analyse landing prices among the main fishing nations, using co-integration tests and tests for the Law of One Price (LOP) to determine the degree of market integration. A partially integrated European first-hand market for whitefish is identified and as a part of this, a perfectly spatially integrated cod market. The existence of this relatively loose market integration is explained by the presence of rigidities on the supply side. The implications are discussed in relation to reductions in EU whitefish TACs and quotas and the market policies applied.

Market Integration of Farmed Trout in Germany

Price formation and integration of markets supplied by both farmed and captured fish is studied. Markets for trout and potential substitutes imported to Germany are analysed, and market delineation and market leaders identified. It is found that markets for small portion-sized farmed trout with white meat are related to, rather than completely separate from, other fish markets, and that markets for these trout are more closely linked to markets for captured fish than to farmed salmon. The implications are that although the part of the trout business operating with small freshwater ponds remains relatively unaffected by developments in other fish markets, careful attention should be paid to markets for and management of capture fisheries like cod, halibut, redfish, and mackerel, than to markets for farmed salmon.

Management of and Economic Returns from Selected Fisheries in the Nordic Countries

Abstract There is potential to increase the economic returns in many fisheries by improving fisheries management. In this article, maximum and estimated current resource rents are analyzed using a standardized methodology for five case studies of fisheries with different management regimes: individual quotas (Norway), individual transferable quotas (Iceland), co-management (Denmark), vessel catch limits (Sweden), and tradable days-at-sea regulation (Faroe Islands). The Danish co-managed fishery had the highest estimated current rent, corresponding to 51% of landing value compared to a maximum rent of 62%. The Danish case was followed by the Icelandic ITQ fishery (estimated current 30%, maximum 66%), Faroese tradable days-at-sea (current 28%, maximum 55%), Swedish vessel catch limits (current 3%, maximum 74%), and Norwegian individual quotas (estimated current −22%, maximum 43%). Fishery characteristics other than management might influence the estimated resource rent, and the results are discussed in relation to biological sustainability. The method used across fisheries and countries for the estimation of the current economic rent, based on standardized opportunity costs of labor and capital, exaggerates the current positive rent for the ITQ fishery and the negative rent for the individual quota fishery. JEL Classification Codes: Q22, Q27

Market Integration between Farmed and Wild Fish: Evidence from the Whitefish Market in Germany

ABSTRACT Following decade-long growth in worldwide farming of pangasius and tilapia, imports to Germany, a main European market, have been reduced since 2010. One reason for this might be supply growth of wild species at the total German whitefish market, if market integration exists between farmed and wild-caught whitefish. This article examines market integration between farmed (pangasius and tilapia) and wild-caught (Alaska pollock, cod, and saithe) frozen whitefish in Germany and finds close integration. Hence, prices of frozen pangasius and tilapia fillets in Germany are determined not only by supply of these species, but more importantly by the much larger supplies of wild-caught cod and Alaska pollock. The implication of the presence of market integration is that the small-scale Asian farmers are secured against severe price reductions in Germany arising from farm productivity growth. However, market integration also makes them dependent on quotas and supply of competing wild-caught whitefish. JEL Codes: C32, F15, Q21, Q22.

Price Effects of Changing Quantities Supplied at the Integrated European Fish Market

Abstract This article analyses the effect that changes in the quantities supplied from EU fish stocks have on fish prices. As opposed to earlier studies, this one is European- wide, taking international market integration into account. Average own-price flexibilities for fresh captured fish are found to be −1.1. This implies that price flexibilities previously estimated for single European countries underestimate price changes at the European level caused by quantity changes. Results indicate that changing quantities can increase revenues from individual species with large own-price flexibilities, provided that stocks supply a significant share of the total EU supply. That is found to be the case for sole and anchovies, but not for cod and hake. Thus, for sole the short-run decline in fishermens incomes following quota and quantity reductions are partly compensated by rising prices. For anchovies it only happens when quotas are reduced for several stocks simultaneously. JEL Classification Code: Q32, Q21, Q22

Causality in demand: a co-integrated demand system for trout in Germany

This article focuses on causality in demand. A methodology where causality is imposed and tested within an empirical co-integrated demand model, not prespecified, is suggested. The methodology allows different causality of different products within the same demand system. The methodology is applied to fish demand. On the German market for farmed trout and substitutes, it is found that supply sources, i.e. aquaculture and fishery, are not the only determinant of causality. Storing, tightness of management and aggregation level of integrated markets might also be important. The methodological implication is that more explicit focus on causality in demand analyses provides improved information. The results suggest that frozen trout forms part of a large European whitefish market, where prices of fresh trout are formed on a relatively separate market. Redfish is a substitute on both markets. The policy implication is that increased production of trout causes a downward pressure on fresh trout prices, but frozen trout prices remain relatively unaffected.

International market integration and demand: An analysis of the Norwegian and Danish herring market

This article provides a method where pre-tests for international market integration are used to identify market structures before estimating demand systems. The method is applied to the analysis of the European herring market. A Vector Auto Regressive model in Error Correction form is used to identify co-integration vectors between price series and, based on this, to test for the Law of One Price. The Law of One Price is in force between the landing markets for herring in the two largest global supplier countries, Norway and Denmark. Therefore, an inverse demand function is estimated for the combined Norwegian and Danish market. The results are used in the interpretation of the significant increase in the prices of herring on the Danish ex-vessel market in 2001, given the stability of the Danish market. The implication is that even though Denmark did not export to the main Norwegian export markets in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, the Danish landing price is influenced by the situation there.This article provides a method where pre-tests for international market integration are used to identify market structures before estimating demand systems. The method is applied to the analysis of the European herring market. A Vector Auto Regressive model in Error Correction form is used to identify co-integration vectors between price series and, based on this, to test for the Law of One Price. The Law of One Price is in force between the landing markets for herring in the two largest global supplier countries, Norway and Denmark. Therefore, an inverse demand function is estimated for the combined Norwegian and Danish market. The results are used in the interpretation of the significant increase in the prices of herring on the Danish ex-vessel market in 2001, given the stability of the Danish market. The implication is that even though Denmark did not export to the main Norwegian export markets in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, the Danish landing price is influenced by the situation there.

Price formation of the salmon aquaculture futures market

ABSTRACT This study examines price formation of the internationally traded salmon futures exchange. Analyzing data from 2006 to 2015, the study identifies the co-integration relationship between the spot market price and 1–6-, 9- and 12-month futures contract prices. With exception of the 12-month maturity futures price, the unbiasedness hypothesis is shown to hold, thus evidence of risk neutrality and efficiency among the co-integrated pairs. Further, it is evident that the spot price provides leadership role in the price discovery function for the 1-, 2- and 6-months futures contract. On the contrary, the 3-, 4-, 5-, 9- and 12-months futures contracts provide the expected leadership role in the price discovery function, a case that supports a matured market that can be considered a necessary price risk management tool. The mixed finding is an indication of a maturing or near matured futures market. Analysis of the term structure of futures volatilities reveal that the shorter the length of the futures contract, the more volatility there is. This is because salmon prices exhibit short-term cyclical and seasonal patterns like other agricultural commodities. As such, salmon producers will be better off hedging in far month futures contracts, ceteris paribus.

Agency rivalry in a shared regulatory space and its impact on social welfare: The case of aquaculture regulation

ABSTRACT This article is grounded in public choice theory and develops a framework to explain how non-benevolent behavior on the part of public regulators and the resulting lack of collaboration between different agencies have been affecting aquaculture growth. Although regulators are assumed to work for the best interest of the people, they can have their own rational agendas; such as career advancement, self-aggrandizement and loyalty for a particular political ideology. We show that when officials are non-benevolent and agencies have unequal relative decision-making power, it is likely that a more powerful agency dictates policies in favor of its own agenda, even when such policies may not necessarily lead to optimal social welfare. In the case of aquaculture, higher relative power of a pro-environment agency leads to underdevelopment of the sector, as is the case in developed countries, whereas larger relative power of a pro-industry agency leads to higher growth, as is the case in developing countries.

Market Integration of Cold and Warmwater Shrimp in Europe

ABSTRACT This study examines market integration between the cold and warmwater shrimp value chain in the UK, Denmark, Italy, Sweden, and Norway using cointegration methods. For all countries, market integration exists between cold and warmwater unprocessed shrimp imports, where the law of one price (LOP) holds in three of the five cases. For processed shrimp, the LOP holds in three of four integrated cases, and for retail sales in the UK and Denmark, the LOP fails to hold in the presence of market integration. Unprocessed coldwater shrimp leads the market in northern Europe. Downstream, prices adjust within a few months, indicating that a shrimp is a shrimp. In the short-run, the coldwater value chain seems to be protected from competition, but provides opportunities for a shift in consumer demand towards warmwater in the long-run. This implies that coldwater shrimp prices are determined by demand and supply of warmwater shrimp, which is 15 times larger. JEL Codes: C32, F15, Q21, Q22.