Max Post van der Burg

Land use and wetland drainage affect water levels and dynamics of remaining wetlands

Depressional wetlands are productive and unique ecosystems found around the world. Their value is due, in part, to their dynamic nature, in which water levels fluctuate in response to climate, occasionally drying out. However, many wetlands have been altered by consolidation drainage, where multiple, smaller wetlands are drained into fewer, larger, wetlands causing higher water levels. We evaluated whether current (2003–2010) water surface areas were greater than historical (1937–1969) water surface areas of 141 randomly selected semipermanent and permanent wetlands across the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota, USA. We also evaluated whether differences between historical and current hydrology of these wetlands were attributable to consolidation drainage. For each of these wetlands, we digitized water surface areas from aerial photography during historical and current eras. Our results indicated that water surface areas are currently 86% greater in sample wetlands than they were historically and that differences can be attributed to consolidation drainage. Water surface areas of consolidated wetlands in extensively drained landscapes were 197% greater than those with no drainage and now require more extreme drought conditions to dry out. Wetlands in extensively drained catchments were larger, dry out less frequently, and have more surface-water connections to other wetlands via ditches. These factors make conditions more favorable for the presence of fish that decrease abundances of aquatic invertebrates and reduce the productivity and quality of these wetlands for many species. Our results support the idea that intact wetlands serve an important role in water storage and groundwater recharge and reduce down-stream runoff.

Adaptive Management of Bull Trout Populations in the Lemhi Basin

Abstract The bull trout Salvelinus confluentus, a stream-living salmonid distributed in drainages of the northwestern United States, is listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act because of rangewide declines. One proposed recovery action is the reconnection of tributaries in the Lemhi Basin. Past water use policies in this core area disconnected headwater spawning sites from downstream habitat and have led to the loss of migratory life history forms. We developed an adaptive management framework to analyze which types of streams should be prioritized for reconnection under a proposed Habitat Conservation Plan. We developed a Stochastic Dynamic Program that identified optimal policies over time under four different assumptions about the nature of the migratory behavior and the effects of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis on subpopulations of bull trout. In general, given the current state of the system and the uncertainties about the dynamics, the optimal policy would be to connect streams that...

Successes and Challenges from Formation to Implementation of Eleven Broad-Extent Conservation Programs

Integration of conservation partnerships across geographic, biological, and administrative boundaries is increasingly relevant because drivers of change, such as climate shifts, transcend these boundaries. We explored successes and challenges of established conservation programs that span multiple watersheds and consider both social and ecological concerns. We asked representatives from a diverse set of 11 broad-extent conservation partnerships in 29 countries 17 questions that pertained to launching and maintaining partnerships for broad-extent conservation, specifying ultimate management objectives, and implementation and learning. Partnerships invested more funds in implementing conservation actions than any other aspect of conservation, and a programs context (geographic extent, United States vs. other countries, developed vs. developing nation) appeared to substantially affect program approach. Despite early successes of these organizations and benefits of broad-extent conservation, specific challenges related to uncertainties in scaling up information and to coordination in the face of diverse partner governance structures, conflicting objectives, and vast uncertainties regarding future system dynamics hindered long-term success, as demonstrated by the focal organizations. Engaging stakeholders, developing conservation measures, and implementing adaptive management were dominant challenges. To inform future research on broad-extent conservation, we considered several challenges when we developed detailed questions, such as what qualities of broad-extent partnerships ensure they complement, integrate, and strengthen, rather than replace, local conservation efforts and which adaptive management processes yield actionable conservation strategies that account explicitly for dynamics and uncertainties regarding multiscale governance, environmental conditions, and knowledge of the system?

Integrating info-gap decision theory with robust population management: a case study using the Mountain Plover

Wildlife managers often make decisions under considerable uncertainty. In the most extreme case, a complete lack of data leads to uncertainty that is unquantifiable. Information-gap decision theory deals with assessing management decisions under extreme uncertainty, but it is not widely used in wildlife management. So too, robust population management methods were developed to deal with uncertainties in multiple-model parameters. However, the two methods have not, as yet, been used in tandem to assess population management decisions. We provide a novel combination of the robust population management approach for matrix models with the information-gap decision theory framework for making conservation decisions under extreme uncertainty. We applied our model to the problem of nest survival management in an endangered bird species, the Mountain Plover (Charadrius montanus). Our results showed that matrix sensitivities suggest that nest management is unlikely to have a strong effect on population growth rate, confirming previous analyses. However, given the amount of uncertainty about adult and juvenile survival, our analysis suggested that maximizing nest marking effort was a more robust decision to maintain a stable population. Focusing on the twin concepts of opportunity and robustness in an information-gap model provides a useful method of assessing conservation decisions under extreme uncertainty.

Estimating Nest Density When Detectability is Incomplete: Variation in Nest Attendance and Response to Disturbance by Western Meadowlarks

Abstract. Researchers commonly model nest density as a function of ecological variables, but nests, like birds, can be undetected while present. In the Nebraska Sandhills in 2007, we used the rope-drag method on previously located Western Meadowlark (Sturnella neglecta) nests to model nest-detection error and nest density. Detecting nests by rope dragging (commonly used for nests of grassland birds) is conditional on two primary sources of nest availability, adults attending nests and adults flushing from nests in response to disturbance from the rope, the behavioral cue necessary for nest detection. On the basis of our trials with rope dragging, the probability of adults attending nests was 0.46. The probability of trials eliciting flight responses from adults was 0.19, indicating that observed estimates of nest density were subject to detection error and negatively biased. We compared our ability to detect differences in nest densities between two habitat types with a statistical power analysis, using (1) t-tests with estimates of apparent, uncorrected density and (2) a Bayesian hierarchical model incorporating nest-detection error. Our power analysis indicates that accounting for detection error in a hierarchical model increased statistical power for revealing differences in nest densities by habitat type. We discuss mechanisms underlying detection error for nests of grassland birds and make recommendations for sampling and modeling to maximize the reality of models for nest detectability and density.

Monitoring and modeling wetland chloride concentrations in relationship to oil and gas development

Extraction of oil and gas via unconventional methods is becoming an important aspect of energy production worldwide. Studying the effects of this development in countries where these technologies are being widely used may provide other countries, where development may be proposed, with some insight in terms of concerns associated with development. A fairly recent expansion of unconventional oil and gas development in North America provides such an opportunity. Rapid increases in energy development in North America have caught the attention of managers and scientists as a potential stressor for wildlife and their habitats. Of particular concern in the Northern Great Plains of the U.S. is the potential for chloride-rich produced water associated with unconventional oil and gas development to alter the water chemistry of wetlands. We describe a landscape scale modeling approach designed to examine the relationship between potential chloride contamination in wetlands and patterns of oil and gas development. We used a spatial Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach to assess multiple models explaining chloride concentrations in wetlands. These models included effects related to oil and gas wells (e.g. age of wells, number of wells) and surficial geology (e.g. glacial till, outwash). We found that the model containing the number of wells and the surficial geology surrounding a wetland best explained variation in chloride concentrations. Our spatial predictions showed regions of localized high chloride concentrations. Given the spatiotemporal variability of regional wetland water chemistry, we do not regard our results as predictions of contamination, but rather as a way to identify locations that may require more intensive sampling or further investigation. We suggest that an approach like the one outlined here could easily be extended to more of an adaptive monitoring approach to answer questions about chloride contamination risk that are of interest to managers.

Consolidation drainage and climate change may reduce Piping Plover habitat in the Great Plains

Abstract Many waterbird species utilize a diversity of aquatic habitats; however, with increasing anthropogenic needs to manage water regimes there is global concern over impacts to waterbird popul...

A Bayesian approach for temporally scaling climate for modeling ecological systems.

Abstract With climate change becoming more of concern, many ecologists are including climate variables in their system and statistical models. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is a drought index that has potential advantages in modeling ecological response variables, including a flexible computation of the index over different timescales. However, little development has been made in terms of the choice of timescale for SPEI. We developed a Bayesian modeling approach for estimating the timescale for SPEI and demonstrated its use in modeling wetland hydrologic dynamics in two different eras (i.e., historical [pre‐1970] and contemporary [post‐2003]). Our goal was to determine whether differences in climate between the two eras could explain changes in the amount of water in wetlands. Our results showed that wetland water surface areas tended to be larger in wetter conditions, but also changed less in response to climate fluctuations in the contemporary era. We also found that the average timescale parameter was greater in the historical period, compared with the contemporary period. We were not able to determine whether this shift in timescale was due to a change in the timing of wet–dry periods or whether it was due to changes in the way wetlands responded to climate. Our results suggest that perhaps some interaction between climate and hydrologic response may be at work, and further analysis is needed to determine which has a stronger influence. Despite this, we suggest that our modeling approach enabled us to estimate the relevant timescale for SPEI and make inferences from those estimates. Likewise, our approach provides a mechanism for using prior information with future data to assess whether these patterns may continue over time. We suggest that ecologists consider using temporally scalable climate indices in conjunction with Bayesian analysis for assessing the role of climate in ecological systems.

Benefits and Limitations of Using Decision-Analytic Tools to Assess Uncertainty and Prioritize Landscape Conservation Cooperative Information Needs

Abstract The Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) are a network of partnerships throughout North America that are tasked with integrating science and management to support more effective deli...

Understanding and Finding Solutions to the Problem of Sedimentation in the National Wildlife Refuge System

Abstract The National Wildlife Refuge System (Refuge System) is a collection of public lands maintained by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service for migratory birds and other wildlife. Wetlands on individual National Wildlife Refuges (Refuges) may be at risk of increased sedimentation because of land use and water management practices. Increased sedimentation can reduce wetland habitat quality by altering hydrologic function, degrading water quality, and inhibiting growth of vegetation and invertebrates. On Refuges negatively affected by increased sedimentation, managers have to address complex questions about how to best remediate and mitigate the negative effects. The best way to account for these complexities is often not clear. On other Refuges, managers may not know whether sedimentation is a problem. Decision makers in the Refuge System may need to allocate resources to studying which Refuges could be at risk. Such analyses would help them understand where to direct support for managing increased sedim...