Max Wei

Deep carbon reductions in California require electrification and integration across economic sectors

Meeting a greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target of 80% below 1990 levels in the year 2050 requires detailed long-term planning due to complexity, inertia, and path dependency in the energy system. A detailed investigation of supply and demand alternatives is conducted to assess requirements for future California energy systems that can meet the 2050 GHG target. Two components are developed here that build novel analytic capacity and extend previous studies: (1) detailed bottom-up projections of energy demand across the building, industry and transportation sectors; and (2) a high-resolution variable renewable resource capacity planning model (SWITCH) that minimizes the cost of electricity while meeting GHG policy goals in the 2050 timeframe. Multiple pathways exist to a low-GHG future, all involving increased efficiency, electrification, and a dramatic shift from fossil fuels to low-GHG energy. The electricity system is found to have a diverse, cost-effective set of options that meet aggressive GHG reduction targets. This conclusion holds even with increased demand from transportation and heating, but the optimal levels of wind and solar deployment depend on the temporal characteristics of the resulting load profile. Long-term policy support is found to be a key missing element for the successful attainment of the 2050 GHG target in California.

Patterning a 50-nm period grating using soft x-ray spatial frequency multiplication

Soft x‐ray spatial frequency multiplication is a technique that has the capability of reducing by a factor of 2 or more the finest period grating that can be written by other methods. We describe two geometries for this technique: a single‐grating geometry that requires spatially coherent illumination, and a two‐grating geometry that can be used with incoherent illumination. Starting with a parent grating of period p and area A, gratings of period p/2, p/4, p/6 over an area A/3, A/5, A/7, respectively, can be printed in the single‐grating geometry. The two‐grating geometry produces the same final grating periods for parent gratings of period p, but the final grating area is limited only by the sizes of the parent gratings. As an initial demonstration of this technique, we have used the single‐grating geometry to pattern a 50‐nm period grating in polymethylmethacrylate over an area of 30 μm×100 μm, starting with a 100‐nm period parent grating with an area of 90 μm×100 μm. The x‐ray source was a synchrotron undulator at λ=18 A and required a 5‐min exposure time. Recent developments in coherent radiation from x‐ray undulator sources will give shorter exposure times and permit larger areas to be patterned in the single‐grating geometry.

Benefits of Leapfrogging to Superefficiency and Low Global Warming Potential Refrigerants in Room Air Conditioning

Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) emitted from uses such as refrigerants and thermal insulating foam, are now the fastest growing greenhouse gases (GHGs), with global warming potentials (GWP) thousands of times higher than carbon dioxide (CO2). Because of the short lifetime of these molecules in the atmosphere,1 mitigating the amount of these short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) provides a faster path to climate change mitigation than control of CO2 alone. This has led to proposals from Africa, Europe, India, Island States, and North America to amend the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (Montreal Protocol) to phase-down high-GWP HFCs. Simultaneously, energy efficiency market transformation programs such as standards, labeling and incentive programs are endeavoring to improve the energy efficiency for refrigeration and air conditioning equipment to provide life cycle cost, energy, GHG, and peak load savings. In this paper we provide an estimate of the magnitude of such GHG and peak electric load savings potential, for room air conditioning, if the refrigerant transition and energy efficiency improvement policies are implemented either separately or in parallel.

Electricity End Uses, Energy Efficiency, and Distributed Energy Resources Baseline

Author(s): Schwartz, Lisa; Wei, Max; Morrow, William; Deason, Jeff; Schiller, Steven R.; Leventis, Greg; Smith, Sarah; Leow, Woei Ling; Levin, Todd; Plotkin, Steven; Zhou, Yan

Analysis of Fuel Cell Markets in Japan and the US: Experience Curve Development and Cost Reduction Disaggregation:

Author(s): Wei, Max; Smith, Sarah J.; Sohn, Michael D. | Abstract: Fuel cells are both a longstanding and emerging technology for stationary and transportation applications, and their future use will likely be critical for the deep decarbonization of global energy systems. As we look into future applications, a key challenge for policy-makers and technology market forecasters who seek to track and/or accelerate their market adoption is the ability to forecast market costs of the fuel cells as technology innovations are incorporated into market products. Specifically, there is a need to estimate technology learning rates, which are rates of cost reduction versus production volume. Unfortunately, no literature exists for forecasting future learning rates for fuel cells. In this paper, we look retrospectively to estimate learning rates for two fuel cell deployment programs: (1) the micro-combined heat and power (CHP) program in Japan, and (2) the Self-Generation Incentive Program (SGIP) in California. These two examples have a relatively broad set of historical market data and thus provide an informative and international comparison of distinct fuel cell technologies and government deployment programs. We develop a generalized procedure for disaggregating experience-curve cost-reductions in order to disaggregate the Japanese fuel cell micro-CHP market into its constituent components, and we derive and present a range of learning rates that may explain observed market trends. Finally, we explore the differences in the technology development ecosystem and market conditions that may have contributed to the observed differences in cost reduction and draw policy observations for the market adoption of future fuel cell technologies. The scientific and policy contributions of this paper are the first comparative experience curve analysis of past fuel cell technologies in two distinct markets, and the first quantitative comparison of a detailed cost model of fuel cell systems with actual market data. The resulting approach is applicable to analyzing other fuel cell markets and other energy-related technologies, and highlights the data needed for cost modeling and quantitative assessment of key cost reduction components.

Retrospective North American CFL Experience Curve Analysis and Correlation to Deployment Programs

Author(s): Smith, Sarah J.; Wei, Max; Sohn, Michael D. | Abstract: Retrospective experience curves are a useful tool for understanding historic technology development, and can contribute to investment program analysis and future cost estimation efforts. This work documents our development of an analysis approach for deriving retrospective experience curves with a variable learning rate, and its application to develop an experience curve for compact fluorescent lamps for the global and North American markets over the years 1990-2007. Uncertainties and assumptions involved in interpreting data for our experience curve development are discussed, including the processing and transformation of empirical data, the selection of system boundaries, and the identification of historical changes in the learning rate over the course of 15 years. In the results that follow, we find that that the learning rate has changed at least once from 1990-2007. We also explore if, and to what degree, public deployment programs may have contributed to an increased technology learning rate in North America. We observe correlations between the changes in the learning rate and the initiation of new policies, abrupt technological advances, including improvements to ballast technology, and economic and political events such as trade tariffs and electricity prices. Finally, we discuss how the findings of this work (1) support the use of segmented experience curves for retrospective and prospective analysis and (2) may imply that investments in technological research and development have contributed to a change in market adoption and penetration.

Energy: Supply, Demand, and Impacts

Energy consumption in the Southwest United States was 12,500 trillion British thermal units (BTUs) in 2009, equal to 222 million BTUs per person (EIA 2010). Any change or disruption to the supply of energy is likely to have significant impacts. For example, a study found that electrical power blackouts and “sags” cost the United States about

Scenarios for Deep Carbon Emission Reductions from Electricity by 2050 in Western North America using the Switch Electric Power Sector Planning Model: California's Carbon Challenge Phase II, Volume II

80 billion every year in lost services, industrial capacity, and gross domestic product (LaCommare and Eto 2004).

White-light spacial frequency multiplication using soft x rays

In this study we use a state-of-the-art planning model for the electric power system - the SWITCH model - to investigate the evolution of the power systems of California and western North America from present-day to 2050 in the context of deep decarbonization of the economy. We find drastic power system carbon emission reductions to be feasible by 2050 under a wide range of possible futures. The average cost of power in 2050 is found to range between

Putting renewables and energy efficiency to work: How many jobs can the clean energy industry generate in the US?

149/MWh and