Maxwell B. Joseph

Quantitative evidence for the effects of multiple drivers on continental-scale amphibian declines

Since amphibian declines were first proposed as a global phenomenon over a quarter century ago, the conservation community has made little progress in halting or reversing these trends. The early search for a “smoking gun” was replaced with the expectation that declines are caused by multiple drivers. While field observations and experiments have identified factors leading to increased local extinction risk, evidence for effects of these drivers is lacking at large spatial scales. Here, we use observations of 389 time-series of 83 species and complexes from 61 study areas across North America to test the effects of 4 of the major hypothesized drivers of declines. While we find that local amphibian populations are being lost from metapopulations at an average rate of 3.79% per year, these declines are not related to any particular threat at the continental scale; likewise the effect of each stressor is variable at regional scales. This result - that exposure to threats varies spatially, and populations vary in their response - provides little generality in the development of conservation strategies. Greater emphasis on local solutions to this globally shared phenomenon is needed.

Chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis has nonamphibian hosts and releases chemicals that cause pathology in the absence of infection

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, a pathogenic chytrid fungus implicated in worldwide amphibian declines, is considered an amphibian specialist. Identification of nonamphibian hosts could help explain the virulence, heterogeneous distribution, variable rates of spread, and persistence of B. dendrobatidis in freshwater ecosystems even after amphibian extirpations. Here, we test whether mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki) and crayfish (Procambarus spp. and Orconectes virilis), which are syntopic with many amphibian species, are possible hosts for B. dendrobatidis. Field surveys in Louisiana and Colorado revealed that zoosporangia occur within crayfish gastrointestinal tracts, that B. dendrobatidis prevalence in crayfish was up to 29%, and that crayfish presence in Colorado wetlands was a positive predictor of B. dendrobatidis infections in cooccurring amphibians. In experiments, crayfish, but not mosquitofish, became infected with B. dendrobatidis, maintained the infection for at least 12 wk, and transmitted B. dendrobatidis to amphibians. Exposure to water that previously held B. dendrobatidis also caused significant crayfish mortality and gill recession. These results indicate that there are nonamphibian hosts for B. dendrobatidis and suggest that B. dendrobatidis releases a chemical that can cause host pathology, even in the absence of infection. Managing these biological reservoirs for B. dendrobatidis and identifying this chemical might provide new hope for imperiled amphibians.

Taming wildlife disease: bridging the gap between science and management

Summary Parasites and pathogens of wildlife can threaten biodiversity, infect humans and domestic animals, and cause significant economic losses, providing incentives to manage wildlife diseases. Recent insights from disease ecology have helped transform our understanding of infectious disease dynamics and yielded new strategies to better manage wildlife diseases. Simultaneously, wildlife disease management (WDM) presents opportunities for large‐scale empirical tests of disease ecology theory in diverse natural systems. To assess whether the potential complementarity between WDM and disease ecology theory has been realized, we evaluate the extent to which specific concepts in disease ecology theory have been explicitly applied in peer‐reviewed WDM literature. While only half of WDM articles published in the past decade incorporated disease ecology theory, theory has been incorporated with increasing frequency over the past 40 years. Contrary to expectations, articles authored by academics were no more likely to apply disease ecology theory, but articles that explain unsuccessful management often do so in terms of theory. Some theoretical concepts such as density‐dependent transmission have been commonly applied, whereas emerging concepts such as pathogen evolutionary responses to management, biodiversity–disease relationships and within‐host parasite interactions have not yet been fully integrated as management considerations. Synthesis and applications. Theory‐based disease management can meet the needs of both academics and managers by testing disease ecology theory and improving disease interventions. Theoretical concepts that have received limited attention to date in wildlife disease management could provide a basis for improving management and advancing disease ecology in the future.

Does life history mediate changing disease risk when communities disassemble

Biodiversity loss sometimes increases disease risk or parasite transmission in humans, wildlife and plants. Some have suggested that this pattern can emerge when host species that persist throughout community disassembly show high host competence - the ability to acquire and transmit infections. Here, we briefly assess the current empirical evidence for covariance between host competence and extirpation risk, and evaluate the consequences for disease dynamics in host communities undergoing disassembly. We find evidence for such covariance, but the mechanisms for and variability around this relationship have received limited consideration. This deficit could lead to spurious assumptions about how and why disease dynamics respond to community disassembly. Using a stochastic simulation model, we demonstrate that weak covariance between competence and extirpation risk may account for inconsistent effects of host diversity on disease risk that have been observed empirically. This model highlights the predictive utility of understanding the degree to which host competence relates to extirpation risk, and the need for a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying such relationships.

“One Health” or Three? Publication Silos Among the One Health Disciplines

The One Health initiative is a global effort fostering interdisciplinary collaborations to address challenges in human, animal, and environmental health. While One Health has received considerable press, its benefits remain unclear because its effects have not been quantitatively described. We systematically surveyed the published literature and used social network analysis to measure interdisciplinarity in One Health studies constructing dynamic pathogen transmission models. The number of publications fulfilling our search criteria increased by 14.6% per year, which is faster than growth rates for life sciences as a whole and for most biology subdisciplines. Surveyed publications clustered into three communities: one used by ecologists, one used by veterinarians, and a third diverse-authorship community used by population biologists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, and experts in human health. Overlap between these communities increased through time in terms of author number, diversity of co-author affiliations, and diversity of citations. However, communities continue to differ in the systems studied, questions asked, and methods employed. While the infectious disease research community has made significant progress toward integrating its participating disciplines, some segregation—especially along the veterinary/ecological research interface—remains.

Multimodal signalling in the North American barn swallow: a phenotype network approach.

Complex signals, involving multiple components within and across modalities, are common in animal communication. However, decomposing complex signals into traits and their interactions remains a fundamental challenge for studies of phenotype evolution. We apply a novel phenotype network approach for studying complex signal evolution in the North American barn swallow (Hirundo rustica erythrogaster). We integrate model testing with correlation-based phenotype networks to infer the contributions of female mate choice and male–male competition to the evolution of barn swallow communication. Overall, the best predictors of mate choice were distinct from those for competition, while moderate functional overlap suggests males and females use some of the same traits to assess potential mates and rivals. We interpret model results in the context of a network of traits, and suggest this approach allows researchers a more nuanced view of trait clustering patterns that informs new hypotheses about the evolution of communication systems.

Habitat heterogeneity drives the host-diversity-begets-parasite-diversity relationship: evidence from experimental and field studies

Despite a century of research into the factors that generate and maintain biodiversity, we know remarkably little about the drivers of parasite diversity. To identify the mechanisms governing parasite diversity, we combined surveys of 8100 amphibian hosts with an outdoor experiment that tested theory developed for free-living species. Our analyses revealed that parasite diversity increased consistently with host diversity due to habitat (i.e. host) heterogeneity, with secondary contributions from parasite colonisation and host abundance. Results of the experiment, in which host diversity was manipulated while parasite colonisation and host abundance were fixed, further reinforced this conclusion. Finally, the coefficient of host diversity on parasite diversity increased with spatial grain, which was driven by differences in their species-area curves: while host richness quickly saturated, parasite richness continued to increase with neighbourhood size. These results offer mechanistic insights into drivers of parasite diversity and provide a hierarchical framework for multi-scale disease research.

Using multispecies occupancy models to improve the characterization and understanding of metacommunity structure

Two of the most prominent frameworks to develop in ecology over the past decade are metacommunity ecology, which seeks to characterize multispecies distributions across space, and occupancy modeling, which corrects for imperfect detection in an effort to better understand species occurrence patterns. Although their goals are complementary, metacommunity theory and statistical occupancy modeling methods have developed independently. For instance, the elements of metacommunity structure (EMS) framework uses species occurrence data to classify metacommunity structure and link it to underlying environmental gradients. While the efficacy of this approach relies on the quality of the data, few studies have considered how imperfect detection, which is widespread in ecological surveys and the major focus of occupancy modeling, affects the outcome. We introduce a framework that integrates multispecies occupancy models with the current EMS framework, detection error-corrected EMS (DECEMS). This method offers two distinct advantages. First, DECEMS reduces bias in characterizing metacommunity structure by using repeated surveys and occupancy models to disentangle species-specific occupancy and detection probabilities, ultimately bringing metacommunity structure classification into a more probabilistic framework. Second, occupancy modeling allows estimation of species-specific responses to environmental covariates, which will increase our ability to link species-level effects to metacommunity-wide patterns. After reviewing the EMS framework, we introduce a simple multispecies occupancy model and show how DECEMS can work in practice, highlighting that detection error often causes EMS to assign incorrect structures. To emphasize the broader applicability of this approach, we further illustrate that DECEMS can reduce the rate of structure misclassification by more than 20% in some cases, even proving useful when detection error rates are quite low (-10%). Integrating occupancy models and the EMS framework will lead to more accurate descriptions of metacommunity structure and to a greater understanding of the mechanisms by which different structures arise.

The Scaling of Host Density with Richness Affects the Direction, Shape, and Detectability of Diversity-Disease Relationships

Pathogen transmission responds differently to host richness and abundance, two unique components of host diversity. However, the heated debate around whether biodiversity generally increases or decreases disease has not considered the relationships between host richness and abundance that may exist in natural systems. Here we use a multi-species model to study how the scaling of total host community abundance with species richness mediates diversity-disease relationships. For pathogens with density-dependent transmission, non-monotonic trends emerge between pathogen transmission and host richness when host community abundance saturates with richness. Further, host species identity drives high variability in pathogen transmission in depauperate communities, but this effect diminishes as host richness accumulates. Using simulation we show that high variability in low richness communities and the non-monotonic relationship observed with host community saturation may reduce the detectability of trends in empirical data. Our study emphasizes that understanding the patterns and predictability of host community composition and pathogen transmission mode will be crucial for predicting where and when specific diversity-disease relationships should occur in natural systems.

Integrating occupancy models and structural equation models to understand species occurrence

Understanding the drivers of species occrrece s a fundamenal goal in basic and applied ecology. Occupancy models have emerged as a popular approach for inferring species occurrence because they account for problems associated with imperfect detection in field surveys. Current models, however, are limited because they assume covariates are independent (i.e., indirect effects do not occur). Here, we combined structural equation and occupancy models to investigate complex influences on species occurrence while accounting for imperfect detection. These two methods are inherently compatible because they both provide means to make inference on latent or unobserved quantities based on observed data. Our models evaluated the direct and indirect roles of cattle grazing, water chemistry, vegetation, nonnative fishes, and pond permanence on the occurrence of six pond-breeding amphibians, two of which are threatened: the California tiger salamander (Ambysloma californiense) and the California red-legged frog (Rana draytonil). While cattle had strong effects on pond vegetation and water chemistry, their overall effects on amphibian occurrence were small compared to the consistently negative effects of nonnative fish. Fish strongly reduced occurrence probabilities for four of five native amphibians, including both species of conservation concern. These results could help to identify drivers of amphibian declines and to prioritize strategies for amphibian conservation. More generally, this approach facilitates a more mechanistic representation of ideas about the causes of species distributions in space and time. As shown here, occupancy modeling and structural equation modeling are readily combined, and bring rich sets of techniques that may provide unique theoretical and applied insights into basic ecological questions.