Meghan D Mooney

A shortened verbal autopsy instrument for use in routine mortality surveillance systems

BackgroundVerbal autopsy (VA) is recognized as the only feasible alternative to comprehensive medical certification of deaths in settings with no or unreliable vital registration systems. However, a barrier to its use by national registration systems has been the amount of time and cost needed for data collection. Therefore, a short VA instrument (VAI) is needed. In this paper we describe a shortened version of the VAI developed for the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) Gold Standard Verbal Autopsy Validation Study using a systematic approach.MethodsWe used data from the PHMRC validation study. Using the Tariff 2.0 method, we first established a rank order of individual questions in the PHMRC VAI according to their importance in predicting causes of death. Second, we reduced the size of the instrument by dropping questions in reverse order of their importance. We assessed the predictive performance of the instrument as questions were removed at the individual level by calculating chance-corrected concordance and at the population level with cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy. Finally, the optimum size of the shortened instrument was determined using a first derivative analysis of the decline in performance as the size of the VA instrument decreased for adults, children, and neonates.ResultsThe full PHMRC VAI had 183, 127, and 149 questions for adult, child, and neonatal deaths, respectively. The shortened instrument developed had 109, 69, and 67 questions, respectively, representing a decrease in the total number of questions of 40-55xa0%. The shortened instrument, with text, showed non-significant declines in CSMF accuracy from the full instrument with text of 0.4xa0%, 0.0xa0%, and 0.6xa0% for the adult, child, and neonatal modules, respectively.ConclusionsWe developed a shortened VAI using a systematic approach, and assessed its performance when administered using hand-held electronic tablets and analyzed using Tariff 2.0. The length of a VA questionnaire was shortened by almost 50xa0% without a significant drop in performance. The shortened VAI developed reduces the burden of time and resources required for data collection and analysis of cause of death data in civil registration systems.

Improving performance of the Tariff Method for assigning causes of death to verbal autopsies

BackgroundReliable data on the distribution of causes of death (COD) in a population are fundamental to good public health practice. In the absence of comprehensive medical certification of deaths, the only feasible way to collect essential mortality data is verbal autopsy (VA). The Tariff Method was developed by the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) to ascertain COD from VA information. Given its potential for improving information about COD, there is interest in refining the method. We describe the further development of the Tariff Method.MethodsThis study uses data from the PHMRC and the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia studies. Gold standard clinical diagnostic criteria for hospital deaths were specified for a target cause list. VAs were collected from families using the PHMRC verbal autopsy instrument including health care experience (HCE). The original Tariff Method (Tariff 1.0) was trained using the validated PHMRC database for which VAs had been collected for deaths with hospital records fulfilling the gold standard criteria (validated VAs). In this study, the performance of Tariff 1.0 was tested using VAs from household surveys (community VAs) collected for the PHMRC and NHMRC studies. We then corrected the model to account for the previous observed biases of the model, and Tariff 2.0 was developed. The performance of Tariff 2.0 was measured at individual and population levels using the validated PHMRC database.ResultsFor median chance-corrected concordance (CCC) and mean cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy, and for each of three modules with and without HCE, Tariff 2.0 performs significantly better than the Tariff 1.0, especially in children and neonates. Improvement in CSMF accuracy with HCE was 2.5xa0%, 7.4xa0%, and 14.9xa0% for adults, children, and neonates, respectively, and for median CCC with HCE it was 6.0xa0%, 13.5xa0%, and 21.2xa0%, respectively. Similar levels of improvement are seen in analyses without HCE.ConclusionsTariff 2.0 addresses the main shortcomings of the application of the Tariff Method to analyze data from VAs in community settings. It provides an estimation of COD from VAs with better performance at the individual and population level than the previous version of this method, and it is publicly available for use.

Population health and regional variations of disease burden in Japan, 1990–2015: a systematic subnational analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Summary Background Japan has entered the era of super-ageing and advanced health transition, which is increasingly putting pressure on the sustainability of its health system. The level and pace of this health transition might vary across regions within Japan and concern is growing about increasing regional variations in disease burden. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive, comparable framework. We used data from GBD 2015 with the aim to quantify the burden of disease and injuries, and to attribute risk factors in Japan at a subnational, prefecture-level. Methods We used data from GBD 2015 for 315 causes and 79 risk factors of death, disease, and injury incidence and prevalence to measure the burden of diseases and injuries in Japan and in the 47 Japanese prefectures from 1990 to 2015. We extracted data from GBD 2015 to assess mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), life expectancy, and healthy life expectancy (HALE) in Japan and its 47 prefectures. We split extracted data by prefecture and applied GBD methods to generate estimates of burden, and attributable burden due to known risk factors. We examined the prefecture-level relationships of common health system inputs (eg, health expenditure and workforces) to the GBD outputs in 2015 to address underlying determinants of regional health variations. Findings Life expectancy at birth in Japan increased by 4·2 years from 79·0 years (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 79·0 to 79·0) to 83·2 years (83·1 to 83·2) between 1990 and 2015. However, the gaps between prefectures with the lowest and highest life expectancies and HALE have widened, from 2·5 to 3·1 years and from 2·3 to 2·7 years, respectively, from 1990 to 2015. Although overall age-standardised death rates decreased by 29·0% (28·7 to 29·3) from 1990 to 2015, the rates of mortality decline in this period substantially varied across the prefectures, ranging from −32·4% (−34·8 to −30·0) to −22·0% (−20·4 to −20·1). During the same time period, the rate of age-standardised DALYs was reduced overall by 19·8% (17·9 to 22·0). The reduction in rates of age-standardised YLDs was very small by 3·5% (2·6 to 4·3). The pace of reduction in mortality and DALYs in many leading causes has largely levelled off since 2005. Known risk factors accounted for 34·5% (32·4 to 36·9) of DALYs; the two leading behavioural risk factors were unhealthy diets and tobacco smoking in 2015. The common health system inputs were not associated with age-standardised death and DALY rates in 2015. Interpretation Japan has been successful overall in reducing mortality and disability from most major diseases. However, progress has slowed down and health variations between prefectures is growing. In view of the limited association between the prefecture-level health system inputs and health outcomes, the potential sources of regional variations, including subnational health system performance, urgently need assessment. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Japan Ministry of Education, Science, Sports and Culture, Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, AXA CR Fixed Income Fund and AXA Research Fund.

Cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in Brazil and states during 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2015

BackgroundReliable data on cause of death (COD) are fundamental for planning and resource allocation priorities. We used GBD 2015 estimates to examine levels and trends for the leading causes of death in Brazil from 1990 to 2015.MethodsWe describe the main analytical approaches focused on both overall and specific causes of death for Brazil and Brazilian states.ResultsThere was an overall improvement in life expectancy at birth from 1990 to 2015, but with important heterogeneity among states. Reduced mortality due to diarrhea, lower respiratory infections, and other infectious diseases contributed the most for increasing life expectancy in most states from the North and Northeast regions. Reduced mortality due to cardiovascular diseases was the highest contributor in the South, Southeast, and Center West regions. However, among men, intentional injuries reduced life expectancy in 17 out of 27 states. Although age-standardized rates due to ischemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease declined over time, these remained the leading CODs in the country and states. In contrast, leading causes of premature mortality changed substantially - e.g., diarrheal diseases moved from 1st to 13th and then the 36th position in 1990, 2005, and 2015, respectively, while violence moved from 7th to 1st and to 2nd. Overall, the total age-standardized years of life lost (YLL) rate was reduced from 1990 to 2015, bringing the burden of premature deaths closer to expected rates given the country’s Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In 1990, IHD, stroke, diarrhea, neonatal preterm birth complications, road injury, and violence had ratios higher than the expected, while in 2015 only violence was higher, overall and in all states, according to the SDI.ConclusionsA widespread reduction of mortality levels occurred in Brazil from 1990 to 2015, particularly among children under 5 years old. Major shifts in mortality rates took place among communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders. The mortality profile has shifted to older ages with increases in non-communicable diseases as well as premature deaths due to violence. Policymakers should address health interventions accordingly.

Fatores de risco relacionados à carga global de doença do Brasil e Unidades Federadas, 2015

Objective:nTo analyze the global burden of disease related to disability adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to selected risk factors in Brazil and its 27 Federated Units.nnnMethods:nDatabases from the Global Burden of Disease study in Brazil and its Federated Units were used, estimating the summary exposure value (SEV) for selected environmental, behavioral, and metabolic risk factors (RFs), and their combinations. The DALYs were used as the main metric. The ranking of major RFs between 1990 and 2015 was compiled, comparing data by sex and states.nnnResults:nThe analyzed RFs account for 38.8% of the loss of DALYs in the country. Dietary risks was the main cause of DALYs in 2015. In men, dietary risks contributed to 12.2% of DALYs and in women, to 11.1%. Other RFs were high systolic blood pressure, high body mass index, smoking, high fasting plasma glucose and, among men, alcohol and drug use. The main RFs were metabolic and behavioral. In most states, dietary risks was the main RF, followed by high blood pressure.nnnConclusion:nDietary risks leads the RF ranking for Brazil and its Federated Units. Men are more exposed to behavioral risk factors, and women are more exposed to metabolic ones.RESUMO: Objetivo: Analisar a carga global de doenca, quanto aos anos de vida ajustados por incapacidade (disability adjusted life years - DALYs) atribuidos a fatores de risco (FRs) selecionados, para Brasil e 27 Unidades Federadas (UFs). Metodos: Foram utilizadas bases de dados do estudo Carga Global de Doenca (Global Burden of Disease - GBD) para Brasil e UFs estimando a sintese de exposicao de risco (summary exposure value - SEV) para FRs selecionados, incluindo os ambientais, comportamentais, metabolicos e suas combinacoes. Os DALYs foram usados como metrica principal do estudo. Construiu-se o ranking dos principais FRs entre 1990 e 2015, com comparacoes por sexo e UF. Resultados: Os FRs analisados explicariam 38,8% da perda de DALYs no pais. A dieta inadequada foi a principal causa de DALYs em 2015. Em homens, a dieta inadequada contribuiu com 12,2% dos DALYs, e, em mulheres, com 11,1% deles. Outros FRs importantes foram: pressao arterial sistolica elevada, indice de massa corporal (IMC) elevado, tabagismo, glicose serica elevada; entre homens, destaca-se o uso de alcool e drogas. Os principais FRs foram metabolicos e comportamentais. Na maioria das UFs, predominou a dieta inadequada, seguida da pressao arterial elevada. Conclusao: A dieta inadequada lidera o ranking de FRs para Brasil e UF. Os homens estao mais expostos aos FRs comportamentais, e as mulheres, aos metabolicos.

What is the optimal recall period for verbal autopsies? Validation study based on repeat interviews in three populations

BackgroundOne key contextual feature in Verbal Autopsy (VA) is the time between death and survey administration, or recall period. This study quantified the effect of recall period on VA performance by using a paired dataset in which two VAs were administered for a single decedent.MethodsThis study used information from the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) Study, which collected VAs for “gold standard” cases where cause of death (COD) was supported by clinical criteria. This study repeated VA interviews within 3–52 months of death in PHMRC study sites in Andhra Pradesh, India, and Bohol and Manila, Philippines. The final dataset included 2113 deaths interviewed twice and with recall periods ranging from 0 to 52xa0months. COD was assigned by the Tariff method and its accuracy determined by comparison with the gold standard COD.ResultsThe probability of a correct diagnosis of COD decreased by 0.55% per month in the period after death. Site of data collection and survey module also affected the probability of Tariff Method correctly assigning a COD. The probability of a correct diagnosis in VAs collected 3–11 months after death will, on average, be 95.9% of that in VAs collected within 3 months of death.ConclusionsThese findings suggest that collecting VAs within 3 months of death may improve the quality of the information collected, taking the need for a period of mourning into account. This study substantiates the WHO recommendation that it is reasonable to collect VAs up to 1 year after death providing it is accepted that probability of a correct diagnosis is likely to decline month by month during this period.

Causes of death among children aged 5–14 years in the WHO European Region: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Summary Background The mortality burden in children aged 5–14 years in the WHO European Region has not been comprehensively studied. We assessed the distribution and trends of the main causes of death among children aged 5–9 years and 10–14 years from 1990 to 2016, for 51 countries in the WHO European Region. Methods We used data from vital registration systems, cancer registries, and police records from 1980 to 2016 to estimate cause-specific mortality using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. Findings For children aged 5–9 years, all-cause mortality rates (per 100u2008000 population) were estimated to be 46·3 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 45·1–47·5) in 1990 and 19·5 (18·1–20·9) in 2016, reflecting a 58·0% (54·7–61·1) decline. For children aged 10–14 years, all-cause mortality rates (per 100u2008000 population) were 37·9 (37·3–38·6) in 1990 and 20·1 (18·8–21·3) in 2016, reflecting a 47·1% (43·8–50·4) decline. In 2016, we estimated 10u2008740 deaths (95% UI 9970–11u2008542) in children aged 5–9 years and 10u2008279 deaths (9652–10u2008897) in those aged 10–14 years in the WHO European Region. Injuries (road injuries, drowning, and other injuries) caused 4163 deaths (3820–4540; 38·7% of total deaths) in children aged 5–9 years and 4468 deaths (4162–4812; 43·5% of total) in those aged 10–14 years in 2016. Neoplasms caused 2161 deaths (1872–2406; 20·1% of total deaths) in children aged 5–9 years and 1943 deaths (1749–2101; 18·9% of total deaths) in those aged 10–14 years in 2016. Notable differences existed in cause-specific mortality rates between the European subregions, from a two-times difference for leukaemia to a 20-times difference for lower respiratory infections between the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and EU15 (the 15 member states that had joined the European Union before May, 2004). Interpretation Marked progress has been made in reducing the mortality burden in children aged 5–14 years over the past 26 years in the WHO European Region. More deaths could be prevented, especially in CIS countries, through intervention and prevention efforts focusing on the leading causes of death, which are road injuries, drowning, and lower respiratory infections. The findings of our study could be used as a baseline to assess the effect of implementation of programmes and policies on child mortality burden. Funding WHO and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Acidentes de transporte terrestre: estudo Carga Global de Doenças, Brasil e unidades federadas, 1990 e 2015

Objective:nTo describe the global burden of disease due to road traffic accidents in Brazil and federated units in 1990 and 2015.nnnMethods:nThis is an analysis of secondary data from the 2015 Global Burden of Disease study estimates. The following estimates were used: standardized mortality rates and years of life lost by death or disability, potential years of life lost due to premature death, and years of unhealthy living conditions. The Mortality Information System was the main source of death data. Underreporting and redistribution of ill-defined causes and nonspecific codes were corrected.nnnResults:nAround 52,326 deaths due to road traffic accidents were estimated in Brazil in 2015. From 1990 to 2015, mortality rates decreased from 36.9 to 24.8/100 thousand people, a reduction of 32.8%. Tocantins and Piauí have the highest mortality risks among the federated units (FU), with 41.7/100 and 33.1/100 thousand people, respectively. They both present the highest rates of potential years of life lost due to premature deaths.nnnConclusion:nRoad traffic accidents are a public health problem. Using death- or disability-adjusted life years in studies of these causes is important because there are still no sources to know the magnitude of sequelae, as well as the weight of early deaths. Since its data are updated every year, the Global Burden of Disease study may provide evidence to formulate traffic security and health attention policies, which are guided to the needs of the federated units and of different groups of traffic users.

Principais causas da mortalidade na infância no Brasil, em 1990 e 2015: estimativas do estudo de Carga Global de Doença

Objective:nTo analyze under-5 mortality rates and leading causes in Brazil and states in 1990 and 2015, using the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2015 estimates.nnnMethods:nThe main sources of data for all-causes under-5 mortality and live births estimates were the mortality information system, surveys, and censuses. Proportions and rates per 1,000 live births (LB) were calculated for total deaths and leading causes.nnnResults:nEstimates of under-5 deaths in Brazil were 191,505 in 1990, and 51,226 in 2015, 90% of which were infant deaths. The rates per 1,000 LB showed a reduction of 67.6% from 1990 to 2015, achieving the proposed target established by the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The reduction generally was more than 60% in states, with a faster reduction in the poorest Northeast region. The ratio of the highest and lowest rates in the states decreased from 4.9 in 1990 to 2.3 in 2015, indicating a reduction in socioeconomic regional disparities. Although prematurity showed a 72% reduction, it still remains as the leading cause of death (COD), followed by diarrheal diseases in 1990, and congenital anomalies, birth asphyxia and septicemia neonatal in 2015.nnnConclusion:nUnder-5 mortality has decreased over the past 25 years, with reduction of regional disparities. However, pregnancy and childbirth-related causes remain as major causes of death, together with congenital anomalies. Intersectoral and specific public health policies must be continued to improve living conditions and health care in order to achieve further reduction of under-5 mortality rates in Brazil.RESUMO: Objetivo: Analisar as taxas de mortalidade e as principais causas de morte na infância no Brasil e estados, entre 1990 e 2015, utilizando estimativas do estudo Carga Global de Doenca (Global Burden of Disease - GBD) 2015. Metodos: As fontes de dados foram obitos e nascimentos estimados com base nos dados do Sistema de Informacoes sobre Mortalidade (SIM), censos e pesquisas. Foram calculadas proporcoes e taxas por mil nascidos vivos (NV) para o total de obitos e as principais causas de morte na infância. Resultados: O numero estimado de obitos para menores de 5 anos, no Brasil, foi de 191.505, em 1990, e 51.226, em 2015, sendo cerca de 90% mortes infantis. A taxa de mortalidade na infância no Brasil sofreu reducao de 67,6%, entre 1990 e 2015, cumprindo a meta estabelecida nos Objetivos de Desenvolvimento do Milenio (ODM). A reducao total das taxas foi, em geral, acima de 60% nos estados, sendo maior na regiao Nordeste. A disparidade entre as regioes foi reduzida, sendo que a razao entre o estado com a maior e a menor taxa diminuiu de 4,9, em 1990, para 2,3, em 2015. A prematuridade, apesar de queda de 72% nas taxas, figurou como a principal causa de obito em ambos os anos, seguida da doenca diarreica, em 1990, e das anomalias congenitas, da asfixia no parto e da sepse neonatal, em 2015. Conclusao: A queda nas taxas de mortalidade na infância representa um importante ganho no periodo, com reducao de disparidades geograficas. As causas relacionadas ao cuidado em saude na gestacao, no parto e no nascimento figuram como as principais em 2015, em conjunto com as anomalias congenitas. Politicas publicas intersetoriais e de saude especificas devem ser aprimoradas.

Mortality due to noncommunicable diseases in Brazil, 1990 to 2015, according to estimates from the Global Burden of Disease study

CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE:nNoncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading health problem globally and generate high numbers of premature deaths and loss of quality of life. The aim here was to describe the major groups of causes of death due to NCDs and the ranking of the leading causes of premature death between 1990 and 2015, according to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 study estimates for Brazil.nnnDESIGN AND SETTING:nCross-sectional study covering Brazil and its 27 federal states.nnnMETHODS:nThis was a descriptive study on rates of mortality due to NCDs, with corrections for garbage codes and underreporting of deaths.nnnRESULTS:nThis study shows the epidemiological transition in Brazil between 1990 and 2015, with increasing proportional mortality due to NCDs, followed by violence, and decreasing mortality due to communicable, maternal and neonatal causes within the global burden of diseases. NCDs had the highest mortality rates over the whole period, but with reductions in cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases and cancer. Diabetes increased over this period. NCDs were the leading causes of premature death (30 to 69 years): ischemic heart diseases and cerebrovascular diseases, followed by interpersonal violence, traffic injuries and HIV/AIDS.nnnCONCLUSION:nThe decline in mortality due to NCDs confirms that improvements in disease control have been achieved in Brazil. Nonetheless, the high mortality due to violence is a warning sign. Through maintaining the current decline in NCDs, Brazil should meet the target of 25% reduction proposed by the World Health Organization by 2025.