Meijun Qian

China's Financial System: Past, Present, and Future

We examine and compare the role of China’s financial system in supporting the growth of firms and the economy with that in other countries, and explore directions of future development. First, we find that the current financial system is dominated by a large but inefficient banking sector, and reducing the amount of non-performing loans among the major banks to normal levels is the most important objective for reforming the financial system in the short run. Second, despite the fast growth of the stock market, its role of resource allocation in the economy has been both limited and ineffective. Further development of China’s financial markets is the most important long-term objective. Third, we find that the most successful part of the financial system, in terms of supporting the growth of the overall economy, is a non-standard sector that consists of alternative financing channels, governance mechanisms, coalitions, and institutions. This sector should co-exist with banking and markets in the future in order to continue to support the growth of the Hybrid Sector (non-state, non-listed firms). Finally, in order to sustain stable economic growth, China should aim to prevent and halt damaging financial crises, including a banking sector crisis, a real estate or stock market crash, and a “twin crisis” in the currency market and banking sector.

A Review of China’s Financial System and Initiatives for the Future

We provide a comprehensive review of China’s financial system and explore directions of future development. First, the current financial system is dominated by a large banking sector. In recent years, banks have made considerable progress in reducing the amount of non-performing loans and improving their efficiency. It is important that these efforts are continued. Second, the role of the stock market in allocating resources in the economy has been limited and ineffective. Further development of China’s stock market and other financial markets is the most important task in the long term. Third, the most successful part of the financial system, in terms of supporting the growth of the overall economy, is a non-standard sector that consists of alternative financing channels, governance mechanisms, and institutions. This sector should co-exist with banks and markets in the future in order to continue to support the growth of the Hybrid Sector (non-state, non-listed firms). Finally, in order to sustain stable economic growth, China should aim to prevent and halt damaging financial crises, including a banking sector crisis, a real estate or stock market crash, and a “twin crisis” in the currency market and banking sector.

Expropriation of Minority Shareholders in Politically Connected Firms

The conflict of interests between controlling and minority shareholders is an important issue in firms with concentrated ownership. We document that the controlling shareholders’ expropriation behavior through tunneling or self-dealing is much severer in politically connected firms. The results are not due to firms with high tendency of expropriation establishing connection for protection, but because of a less concern of capital market punishment. We show that expropriation is severer only in firms whose political connection secures bank loan access. These findings are consistent with the view that the firms’ financing condition is an important dimension that influences corporate governance.

Creditor Rights and LBOs

This paper examines the relation between legal conditions and leveraged buyouts (LBOs) in 49 countries. The data indicate that sophisticated PE fund managers carrying out large international LBOs can only partially mitigate costs associated with inefficient legal protections. LBOs are more active in countries with strong creditor rights. Club deals are more likely to occur in countries with weak creditor rights. Cross-border LBO investment is more common from strong creditor rights countries to weak creditor rights countries. Premiums offered to shareholders are on average negatively correlated with creditor rights for both domestic and cross-border LBOs.

Stale Prices and the Performance Evaluation of Mutual Funds

Staleness in measured prices imparts a positive statistical bias and a negative dilution effect on mutual fund performance. First, evaluating performance with nonsynchronous data generates a spurious component of alpha. Second, stale prices create arbitrage opportunities for high-frequency traders whose trades dilute the portfolio returns and hence fund performance. This paper introduces a model that evaluates fund performance while controlling directly for these biases. Empirical tests of the model show that alpha net of these biases is on average positive although not significant and about 40 basis points higher than alpha measured without controlling for the impacts of stale pricing. The difference between the net alpha and the measured alpha consists of 3 components: a statistical bias, the dilution effect of long-term fund flows, and the dilution effect of arbitrage flows. Whereas the former 2 components are small, the latter is large and widespread in the fund industry.

The Financial System Capacities of India and China

The extraordinary performance of China and Indias economies raises questions about the traditional measures of the size and depth of financial systems. While banks and markets have played a limited role in providing funds for corporate sectors and supporting economic growth in these two countries, non-state, non-listed firms, relying mostly on internal and alternative financing channels, have been growing faster than the state and listed sectors and contributing much of the growth. The alternative financing channels, excluded in the traditional measures of financial systems, operate outside legal institutions and are backed by alternative mechanisms such as reputation, relationships, and trust. We define the capacity of a financial system to be the total funding available for all corporate sectors in an economy. Our findings from China and India demonstrate that alternative finance can significantly expand the financial system capacity and promote growth at the firm level and economy wide.

The Financial System Capacities in China and India

In this paper we examine and compare the formal systems of law and finance in China and India and the alternative institutional arrangements and governing mechanisms in the two countries, and the relation between the development of these systems and their economic growth. China differs from most of the countries studied in the law, institutions, finance, and growth literature: Its legal and financial systems as well as institutions are all underdeveloped, but its economy has been growing at a very fast rate. More importantly, the growth in the Private Sector, where applicable legal and financial mechanisms are arguably poorer than those in the State and Listed sectors, is much faster than that of the other sectors. The system of alternative mechanisms and institutions plays an important role in supporting the growth in the Private Sector, and they are good substitutes for standard corporate governance mechanisms and financing channels. Despite its English commonl aw origin and British-style judicial system and democratic government, there is enough documented evidence to suggest that the effective level of investor protection and the quality of legal institutions in India are quite weak as well. Once again, this has evidently not prohibited growth. We find that to a large extent Indian firms conduct business outside the formal legal system and do not rely on formal financing channels from markets and banks for most of their financing needs. Instead, firms across the board, and in particular, small and medium firms, use non-legal methods based on reputation, trust and relationships to settle disputes and enforce contracts, and rely on alternative financing channels such as trade credits to finance their growth. The scope, methodologies, and results of our paper paint a more complete picture of the law-finance-growth nexus and how businesses and investors respond to the limitations of legal system and formal financial system than existing studies.

Women's Leadership and Corporate Performance

This paper examines the gender diversity in corporate boardrooms in Asia and the Pacific and how the diversity affects corporate performance. We find that boardroom gender diversity is low in Asia with 7.5% female representation on average in 2012, but showing a 1.8% improvement in 2013. The appointment of female directors and a gender-diverse boardroom are on average positively associated with a firm’s subsequent performance, but with large cross-country and cross-measurement differences. Firm performance is the highest when there are two females on the board. Using two-stage analyses, we find that (i) a firm’s past performance does not predict its choice to add female directors; (ii) cross-country differences in female corporate leadership respond to its economic demand and supply as measured by gender equality in college education, labor participation, wages, and infant survival; and (iii) female representation on the board, when determined by these economic factors, is a significant predictor of a firm’s future performance.

How gradualist are Chinese reforms? Evidence from rural income determinants

ABSTRACT Gradualist reform (GR) is a strategy that implements partial and incremental reforms at the beginning but gradually deepens the reforms over time. Using income determinants in rural China as the measure of the GR hypothesis, this paper provides a direct test of the widely accepted claim that China has followed a GR strategy. In the sense that reform deepens, production factors should become more important income determinants over time. Our difference-in-difference analysis, based on a large panel dataset from fixed-site rural surveys conducted between 1986 and 2002, shows that the efficiency of return to production factors deteriorated over time instead. Households that had more production resources, such as land and labor, or that devoted more labor and time to entrepreneurial activities experienced better income growth in the 1980s, but households with better political status did so in the 1990s. Further difference-in-difference analyses show that these income patterns are related to an inefficient credit allocation due to government interference in the 1990s compared to market mechanisms in the 1980s. Overall, the empirical evidence on the income determinants and on rural finance does not support the GR hypothesis on Chinas reform path.

The Impact of Investor Protection Law on Takeovers: The Case of Leveraged Buyouts

This paper examines the impact of investor protection on the value creation of LBOs. We find that target shareholders’ wealth gain is higher in countries with better investor protection. The impact of investor protection on takeover premium is larger for LBO than non-LBO transactions. We also find evidence suggesting that club LBOs are not priced lower than non-club deals after accounting for endogeneity problem. These results suggest that investor protection law may act as an important safeguard for minority shareholders in LBO transactions.