Meiping Sun

Recent changes in freezing level heights in High Asia and their impact on glacier changes

The heights of the atmospheric freezing level have increased over most glacierized areas of High Asia during 1971-2010, especially in the Altai Mountains, the eastern Tianshan Mountains, and the northeastern margins of the Tibetan Plateau. The systematic increase of freezing level heights (FLHs) is evidenced from both radiosonde and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data. Eleven glaciers with long-term observations are selected in typical high-elevation mountain ranges to examine the relationship between changes in FLHs and cryospheric response. Long-term trends in glacier mass balance and equilibrium line altitude (ELA) show significant correlations with changes in FLHs. A rise of 10 m in summer FLH causes mass balance of reference glaciers in High Asia to decrease by between 7 and 38mm (water equivalent) and ELA to increase by between 3.1 and 9.8m, respectively, depending on location. Both relationships are statistically significant (p<0.01) for most reference glaciers. Thus, rapid deglaciation in these high mountain ranges during recent decades is related to the increase in FLH. Similar relationships may exist in other high-elevation glaciers of High Asia with changes in FLHs having significant ecological and social consequences, especially in arid and semiarid regions.

Changes in temperature extremes in the Yangtze River Basin, 1962–2011

Based on daily maximum and minimum temperature observed by the China Meteorological Administration at 115 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Basin from 1962 to 2011, the methods of linear regression, principal component analysis and correlation analysis are employed to investigate the temporal variability and spatial distribution of temperature extremes. Sixteen indices of extreme temperature are selected. The results are as follows: (1) The occurrence of cold days, cold nights, ice days, frost days and cold spell duration indicator has significantly decreased by −0.84, −2.78, −0.48, −3.29 and −0.67 days per decade, respectively. While the occurrence of warm days, warm nights, summer days, tropical nights, warm spell duration indicator and growing season length shows statistically significant increasing trends at rates of 2.24, 2.86, 2.93, 1.80, 0.83 and 2.30 days per decade, respectively. The tendency rate of the coldest day, coldest night, warmest day, warmest night and diurnal temperature range is 0.33, 0.47, 0.16, 0.19 and −0.07°C per decade, respectively. (2) The magnitudes of changes in cold indices (cold nights, coldest day and coldest night) are obviously greater than those of warm indices (warm nights, warmest day and warmest night). The change ranges of night indices (warm nights and cold nights) are larger than those of day indices (warm days and cold days), which indicates that the change of day and night temperature is asymmetrical. (3) Spatially, the regionally averaged values of cold indices in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin are larger than those in the middle and lower reaches. However, the regionally averaged values of most warm indices (except warm spell duration indicator) and growing season length in the middle and lower reaches are larger than those in the upper reaches. (4) The extreme temperature indices are well correlated with each other except diurnal temperature range.

Spatial-temporal characteristics of lake area variations in Hoh Xil region from 1970 to 2011

As one of the areas with numerous lakes on the Tibetan Plateau, the Hoh Xil region plays an extremely important role in the fragile plateau eco-environment. Based on topographic maps in the 1970s and Landsat TM/ETM+ remote sensing images in the 1990s and the period from 2000 to 2011, the data of 83 lakes with an area above 10 km2 each were obtained by digitization method and artificial visual interpretation technology, and the causes for lake variations were also analyzed. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows. (1) From the 1970s to 2011, the lakes in the Hoh Xil region firstly shrank and then expanded. In particular, the area of lakes generally decreased during the 1970s–1990s. Then the lakes expanded from the 1990s to 2000 and the area was slightly higher than that in the 1970s. The area of lakes dramatically increased after 2000. (2) From 2000 to 2011, the lakes with different area ranks in the Hoh Xil region showed an overall expansion trend. Meanwhile, some regional differences were also discovered. Most of the lakes expanded and were widely distributed in the northern, central and western parts of the region. Some lakes were merged together or overflowed due to their rapid expansion. A small number of lakes with the trend of area decrease or strong fluctuation were scattered in the central and southern parts of the study area. And their variations were related to their own supply conditions or hydraulic connection with the downstream lakes or rivers. (3) The increase in precipitation was the dominant factor resulting in the expansion of lakes in the Hoh Xil region. The secondary factor was the increase in meltwater from glaciers and frozen soil due to climate warming.

RS analysis of glaciers change in the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China, during the recent decades

The Heihe River Basin is the second largest inland river basin in Northwest China and it is also a hotspot in arid hydrology, water resources and other aspects of researches in cold regions. In addition, the Heihe River Basin has complete landscape, moderate watershed size, and typical social ecological environmental problems. So far, there has been no detailed assessment of glaciers change information of the whole river basin. 1:50,000 topographic map data, Landsat TM/ETM+ remote sensing images and digital elevation model data were used in this research. Through integrated computer automatic interpretation and visual interpretation methods, the object-oriented image feature extraction method was applied to extract glacier outline information. Glaciers change data were derived from analysis, and the glacier variation and its response to climate change in the period 1956/1963–2007/2011 were also analyzed. The results show that: (1) In the period 1956/1963–2007/2011, the Heihe River Basin’s glaciers had an evident retreat trend, the total area of glaciers decreased from 361.69 km2 to 231.17 km2; shrinking at a rate of 36.08%, with average single glacier area decrease 0.14 km2; the total number of the glaciers decreased from 967 to 800. (2) Glaciers in this basin are mainly distributed at elevations of 4300–4400 m, 4400–4500 m and 4500–4600 m; and there are significant regional differences in glaciers distribution and glaciers change. (3) Compared with other western mountain glaciers, glaciers retreat in the Heihe River Basin has a higher rate. (4) Analysis of the six meteorological stations’ annual average temperature and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010 suggests that the mean annual temperature increased significantly and the annual precipitation also showed an increasing trend. It is concluded that glacier shrinkage is closely related with temperature rising, besides, glacier melting caused by rising temperatures greater than glacier mass supply by increased precipitation to some extent.

Glacier changes in the Qilian Mountains in the past half-century: Based on the revised First and Second Chinese Glacier Inventory

Glaciers are the most important fresh-water resources in arid and semi-arid regions of western China. According to the Second Chinese Glacier Inventory (SCGI), primarily compiled from Landsat TM/ETM+ images, the Qilian Mountains had 2684 glaciers covering an area of 1597.81±70.30 km2 and an ice volume of ~84.48 km3 from 2005 to 2010. While most glaciers are small (85.66% are <1.0 km2), some larger ones (12.74% in the range 1.0–5.0 km2) cover 42.44% of the total glacier area. The Laohugou Glacier No.12 (20.42 km2) located on the north slope of the Daxue Range is the only glacier >20 km2 in the Qilian Mountains. Median glacier elevation was 4972.7 m and gradually increased from east to west. Glaciers in the Qilian Mountains are distributed in Gansu and Qinghai provinces, which have 1492 glaciers (760.96 km2) and 1192 glaciers (836.85 km2), respectively. The Shule River basin contains the most glaciers in both area and volume. However, the Heihe River, the second largest inland river in China, has the minimum average glacier area. A comparison of glaciers from the SCGI and revised glacier inventory based on topographic maps and aerial photos taken from 1956 to 1983 indicate that all glaciers have receded, which is consistent with other mountain and plateau areas in western China. In the past half-century, the area and volume of glaciers decreased by 420.81 km2 (–20.88%) and 21.63 km3 (–20.26%), respectively. Glaciers with areas <1.0 km2 decreased the most in number and area recession. Due to glacier shrinkage, glaciers below 4000 m completely disappeared. Glacier changes in the Qilian Mountains presented a clear longitudinal zonality, i.e., the glaciers rapidly shrank in the east but slowly in the central-west. The primary cause of glacier recession was warming temperatures, which was slightly mitigated with increased precipitation.

Hydrological processes of glacier and snow melting and runoff in the Urumqi River source region, eastern Tianshan Mountains, China

Hydrological processes were compared, with and without the influence of precipitation on discharge, to identify the differences between glacierized and non-glacierized catchments in the Urumqi River source region, on the northern slope of the eastern Tianshan Mountains, during the melting season (May–September) in 2011. The study was based on hydrological data observed at 10-min intervals, meteorological data observed at 15-min intervals, and glacier melting and snow observations from the Empty Cirque, Zongkong, and Urumqi Glacier No.1 gauging stations. The results indicated that the discharge differed markedly among the three gauging stations. The daily discharge was more than the nightly discharge at the Glacier No.1 gauging station, which contrasted with the patterns observed at the Zongkong and Empty Cirque gauging stations. There was a clear daily variation in the discharge at the three gauging stations, with differences in the magnitude and duration of the peak discharge. When precipitation was not considered, the time-lags between the maximum discharge and the highest temperature were 1–3 h, 10–16 h, and 5–11 h at the Glacier No.1, Empty Cirque, and Zongkong gauging stations, respectively. When precipitation was taken into consideration, the corresponding time-lags were 0–1 h, 13 h, and 6–7 h, respectively. Therefore, the duration from the generation of discharge to confluence was the shortest in the glacierized catchment and the longest in the catchment where was mainly covered by snow. It was also shown that the hydrological process from the generation of discharge to confluence shortened when precipitation was considered. The factors influencing changes in the discharge among the three gauging stations were different. For Glacier No.1 station, the discharge was mainly controlled by heat conditions in the glacierized region, and the discharge displayed an accelerated growth when the temperature exceeded 5°C in the melt season. It was found that the englacial and subglacial drainage channel of Glacier No.1 had become simpler during the past 20 years. Its weaker retardance and storage of glacier melting water resulted in rapid discharge confluence. It was also shown that the discharge curve and the time-lag between the maximum discharge and the highest temperature could be used to reveal the evolution of the drainage system and the process of glacier and snow melting at different levels of glacier coverage.

Spatial-temporal variations of lake ice phenology in the Hoh Xil region from 2000 to 2011

Lake ice phenology, i.e. the timing of freeze-up and break-up and the duration of the ice cover, is regarded as an important indicator of changes in regional climate. Based on the boundary data of lakes, some moderate-high resolution remote sensing datasets including MODIS and Landsat TM/ETM+ images and the meteorological data, the spatial-temporal variations of lake ice phenology in the Hoh Xil region during the period 2000–2011 were analyzed by using RS and GIS technology. And the factors affecting the lake ice phenology were also identified. Some conclusions can be drawn as follows. (1) The time of freeze-up start (FUS) and freeze-up end (FUE) of lake ice appeared in the late October–early November, mid-November–early December, respectively. The duration of lake ice freeze-up was about half a month. The time of break-up start (BUS) and break-up end (BUE) of lake ice were relatively dispersed, and appeared in the early February–early June, early May–early June, respectively. The average ice duration (ID) and the complete ice duration (CID) of lakes were 196 days and 181 days, respectively. (2) The phenology of lake ice in the Hoh Xil region changed dramatically in the last 10 years. Specifically, the FUS and FUE time of lake ice showed an increasingly delaying trend. In contrast, the BUS and BUE time of lake ice presented an advance. This led to the reduction of the ID and CID of lake. The average rates of ID and CID were–2.21 d/a and–1.91 d/a, respectively. (3) The variations of phenology and evolution of lake ice were a result of local and climatic factors. The temperature, lake area, salinity and shape of the shoreline were the main factors affecting the phenology of lake ice. However, the other factors such as the thermal capacity and the geological structure of lake should not be ignored as well. (4) The spatial process of lake ice freeze-up was contrary to its break-up process. The type of lake ice extending from one side of lakeshore to the opposite side was the most in the Hoh Xil region.

Definition and classification system of glacial lake for inventory and hazards study

Glacial lakes are not only the important refresh water resources in alpine region, but also act as a trigger of many glacial hazards such as glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) and debris flow. Therefore, glacial lakes play an important role on the cryosphere, climate change and alpine hazards. In this paper, the issues of glacial lake were systematically discussed, then from the view of glacial lake inventory and glacial lake hazards study, the glacial lake was defined as natural water mainly supplied by modern glacial meltwater or formed in glacier moraine’s depression. Furthermore, a complete classification system of glacial lake was proposed based on its formation mechanism, topographic feature and geographical position. Glacial lakes were classified as 6 classes and 8 subclasses, i.e., glacial erosion lake (including cirque lake, glacial valley lake and other glacial erosion lake), moraine-dammed lake (including end moraine-dammed lake, lateral moraine-dammed lake and moraine thaw lake), ice-blocked lake (including advancing glacier-blocked lake and other glacier-blocked lake), supraglacial lake, subglacial lake and other glacial lake. Meanwhile, some corresponding features exhibiting on remote sensing image and quantitative indices for identifying different glacial lake types were proposed in order to build a universal and operational classification system of glacial lake.

Overflow probability of the Salt Lake in Hoh Xil Region

After the bursting of Huiten Nor in Hoh Xil Region in September, 2011, the topic on whether the water overflowed from the Salt Lake would enter into the Chumaer River and become the northernmost source of the Yangtze River has aroused wide concern from public and academic field. Based on Landsat TM/ETM+/OLI remote sensing images during 2010–2015, SRTM 1 arc-second data, Google Earth elevation data and the observation data from the Wudaoliang meteorological station, the study initially analyzed the variations of the Salt Lake and its overflowing condition and probability. The results showed that the area of the Salt Lake expanded sharply from October 2011 to April 2013, and then it stepped into a stable expansion period. On October 27, 2015, the area of the Salt Lake had arrived at 151.38 km2, which was about 3.35 times the area of the lake on March 3, 2010. The Salt Lake will overflow when its area reaches the range from 218.90 km2 to 220.63 km2. Due to the differences between SRTM DEM and Google Earth elevation data, the water level of the Salt Lake simulated would be 12 m or 9.6 m higher than the current level when the lake overflowed, and its reservoir capacity would increase by 23.71 km3 or 17.27 km3, respectively. Meanwhile, the overflowed water of the Salt Lake would run into the Qingshui River basin from its eastern part. Although the Salt Lake does not overflow in the coming decade, with watershed expansion of the Salt Lake and the projected precipitation increase in Hoh Xil region, the probability of water overflow from the Salt Lake and becoming a tributary of the Yangtze River will exist in the long term.

Increasing free-air 0℃ isotherm height in Southwest China from 1960 to 2010

Based on the radiosonde data observed at 14 stations in Southwest China from 1960 to 2010, as well as the corresponding surface air temperature, the long-term change of free-air 0°C isotherm height in Southwest China and the relationships between surface air temperature and 0°C isotherm height are discussed. The results indicated that the spatial distribution of 0°C isotherm height is generally related with latitude, but the huge massif or plateau may complicate the latitude pattern. The two main regimes influencing the spatial patterns of 0°C isotherm height in Southwest China are latitude and huge massif. The annual 0°C isotherm height has increased by 35 m per decade in the recent decades, which is statistically significant at the 0.001 level. Generally, the increasing trend can be examined for each seasonal series, especially in winter (53 m per decade). The diversity of trend magnitudes for annual and seasonal series can also be detected at a spatial view, but generally 0°C isotherm height correlated well with surface air temperature.