Melinda Mills

Why do people postpone parenthood? Reasons and social policy incentives

BACKGROUND Never before have parents in most Western societies had their first children as late as in recent decades. What are the central reasons for postponement? What is known about the link between the delay of childbearing and social policy incentives to counter these trends? This review engages in a systematic analysis of existing evidence to extract the maximum amount of knowledge about the reasons for birth postponement and the effectiveness of social policy incentives. METHODS The review followed the PRISMA procedure, with literature searches conducted in relevant demographic, social science and medical science databases (SocINDEX, Econlit, PopLine, Medline) and located via other sources. The search focused on subjects related to childbearing behaviour, postponement and family policies. National, international and individual-level data sources were also used to present summary statistics. RESULTS There is clear empirical evidence of the postponement of the first child. Central reasons are the rise of effective contraception, increases in womens education and labour market participation, value changes, gender equity, partnership changes, housing conditions, economic uncertainty and the absence of supportive family policies. Evidence shows that some social policies can be effective in countering postponement. CONCLUSIONS The postponement of first births has implications on the ability of women to conceive and parents to produce additional offspring. Massive postponement is attributed to the clash between the optimal biological period for women to have children with obtaining additional education and building a career. A growing body of literature shows that female employment and childrearing can be combined when the reduction in work-family conflict is facilitated by policy intervention.

Fertility in Advanced Societies: A Review of Research

This paper provides a review of fertility research in advanced societies, societies in which birth control is the default option. The central aim is to provide a comprehensive review that summarizes how contemporary research has explained ongoing and expected fertility changes across time and space (i.e., cross- and within-country heterogeneity). A secondary aim is to provide an analytical synthesis of the core determinants of fertility, grouping them within the analytical level in which they operate. Determinants are positioned at the individual and/or couple level (micro-level), social relationships and social networks (meso-level); and, by cultural and institutional settings (macro-level). The focus is both on the quantum and on the tempo of fertility, with a particular focus on the postponement of childbearing. The review incorporates both theoretical and empirical contributions, with attention placed on empirically tested research and whether results support or falsify existing theoretical expectations. Attention is also devoted to causality and endogeneity issues. The paper concludes with an outline of the current challenges and opportunities for future research.RésuméCet article présente un aperçu des recherches dans le domaine de la fécondité réalisées dans les sociétés dites avancées, c’est-à-dire les sociétés dans lesquelles le contrôle des naissances est l’option par défaut. L’objectif principal est de fournir une vue d’ensemble complète résumant comment la recherche contemporaine explique les changements de fécondité actuelle et prévue dans le temps et dans l’espace (c’est-à-dire l’hétérogénéité à l’intérieur d’un pays ou entre pays). Un second objectif vise à fournir une synthèse des principaux déterminants de la fécondité en les regroupant par niveau d’analyse dans lequel ils se situent. Les déterminants sont ainsi situés au niveau individuel ou au niveau du couple (niveau micro), au niveau des relations sociales et des réseaux sociaux (niveaux méso) et au niveau des cadres institutionnels et culturels (niveau macro). L’accent est mis tant sur l’intensité que le calendrier de la fécondité avec un intérêt particulier sur le report de la procréation. Cette synthèse de la littérature concerne les recherches tant théoriques qu’empiriques, une attention particulière étant portée à celles qui sont testées empiriquement et dont les résultats confirment ou infirment les théories explicatives existantes. De même nous nous sommes particulièrement intéressés aux problèmes de causalité et d’endogénéité. En conclusion, un tableau des défis actuels et des perspectives futures en matière de recherche est esquissé.

Comparative Research Persistent Problems and Promising Solutions

The enduring importance and utility of comparative research in sociology are as old as the discipline itself. Although comparative research flourishes within this discipline, methodological problems persist. After defining comparative research, this article outlines some of its central problems, including: (1) case selection, unit, level and scale of analysis; (2) construct equivalence; (3) variable or case orientation; and (4) causality. The discussion finishes with a brief introduction of the critical and innovative articles within this special issue that not only address these problems, but also present promising solutions.

Gender Roles, Gender (In)equality and Fertility: An Empirical Test of Five Gender Equity Indices

The division of gender roles in the household and societal level gender (in)equality have been situated as one of the most powerful factors underlying fertility behaviour. Despite continued theoretical attention to this issue by demographers, empirical research integrating gender roles and equity in relation to fertility remains surprisingly sparse. This paper first provides a brief review of previous research that has examined gender roles and fertility followed by a comparison of six prominent gender equality indices: Gender-related Development Index (GDI), Gender Empowerment Measure (GEM), Gender Gap Index (GGI), Gender Equality Index (GEI), the European Union Gender Equality Index (EU-GEI) and the Social Institutions and Gender Index (SIGI). The paper then tests how five of these indices impact fertility intentions and behaviour using a series of multilevel (random-coefficient) logistic regression models, applying the European Social Survey (2004/5). The GDI, with its emphasis on human development, adjusted for gender, has the strongest and significant effect on fertility intentions. The EU-GEI, which focuses on the universal caregiver model, uncovers that more equity significantly lowers fertility intentions, but only for women. The remaining indicators show no significant impact. The paper concludes with a reflection and suggestions for future research.

Human Fertility, Molecular Genetics, and Natural Selection in Modern Societies

Research on genetic influences on human fertility outcomes such as number of children ever born (NEB) or the age at first childbirth (AFB) has been solely based on twin and family-designs that suffer from problematic assumptions and practical limitations. The current study exploits recent advances in the field of molecular genetics by applying the genomic-relationship-matrix based restricted maximum likelihood (GREML) methods to quantify for the first time the extent to which common genetic variants influence the NEB and the AFB of women. Using data from the UK and the Netherlands (N = 6,758), results show significant additive genetic effects on both traits explaining 10% (SE = 5) of the variance in the NEB and 15% (SE = 4) in the AFB. We further find a significant negative genetic correlation between AFB and NEB in the pooled sample of –0.62 (SE = 0.27, p-value = 0.02). This finding implies that individuals with genetic predispositions for an earlier AFB had a reproductive advantage and that natural selection operated not only in historical, but also in contemporary populations. The observed postponement in the AFB across the past century in Europe contrasts with these findings, suggesting an evolutionary override by environmental effects and underscoring that evolutionary predictions in modern human societies are not straight forward. It emphasizes the necessity for an integrative research design from the fields of genetics and social sciences in order to understand and predict fertility outcomes. Finally, our results suggest that we may be able to find genetic variants associated with human fertility when conducting GWAS-meta analyses with sufficient sample size.

A Causal Approach to Interrelated Family Events: A Cross-National Comparison fo Cohabitation, Non-marital Conception, and Marriage

One of the most important advances brought about by life course and event history studies is the use of parallel or interdependent processes as explaining factors in transition rate models. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a causal approach to the study of interrelated family events. Various types of interdependent processes are described first, followed by two event history perspectives: the ‘system’ and ‘causal’ approach. The authors assert that the causal approach is more appropriate from an analytical point of view as it provides a straightforward solution to simultaneity, cause-effect lags, and temporal shapes of effects. Based on comparative cross-national applications in West and East Germany, Canada, Latvia, and the Netherlands, we demonstrate the usefulness of the causal approach by analyzing two highly interdependent family processes: entry into marriage (for individuals who are in a consensual union) as the dependent process and first pregnancy/childbirth as the explaining one. Both statistical and theoretical explanations are explored emphasizing the need for conceptual reasoning.

Preferences for the sex-composition of children in Europe: a multilevel examination of its effect on progression to a third child

Comparative research on the preferred sex of children in Western societies has generally focused on women only and ignored the role of gender equity and the need for childrens economic support in old age. A multilevel analysis extends existing research by examining, for both men and women and across 24 European countries, the effect of the preferred sex-composition of offspring on whether parents have or intend to have a third child. Using the European Social Survey (2004/5), a multilevel (random coefficient) ordered logit regression of that intention (N=3,323) and a binary logistic multilevel model of the transition to a third child (N=6,502) demonstrate the presence of a mixed-sex preference. In countries with a high risk of poverty in old age, a preference for sons is found, particularly for men. In societies where there is lower gender equity, both men and women have a significant preference for boys.

The effects of social capital and social pressure on the intention to have a second or third child in France, Germany, and Bulgaria, 2004–05

This study investigates the importance of the effect of an individuals web of informal relationships with family and peers on the intention to have a second or third child. Drawing on sociological theories of social capital (help with childcare, emotional support) and social pressure, the study extends existing research by evaluating cross-national differences (between France, Germany, and Bulgaria) in the impact of personal network and institutional circumstances. It tests a non-linear relationship between social capital and fertility intentions. Social pressure and social capital are highly institutionally filtered, with the impact of personal network stronger where institutions are less family-supportive.

Subjective socioeconomic status and health in cross-national comparison

Research has established a robust association between subjective socioeconomic status (SES) and health outcomes, which holds over and above the associations between objective markers of SES and health. Furthermore, comparative research on health inequalities has shown considerable variation in the relationship between different objective markers of SES and health across countries. Drawing on data from 29 countries, we present the first cross-national study on the subjective SES-health relationship. For two health outcomes, namely self-rated health (SRH) and psychological wellbeing, we are able to confirm that subjective SES is related to health in all countries under study, even when income, education, and occupational prestige are accounted for. Furthermore, we document considerable variation in the strength of the subjective SES-health association across countries. This variation however is largely independent of country differences in income inequality and country affluence. The health benefits of a high subjective SES appear to be slightly larger in more affluent countries, but only for SRH, not for psychological wellbeing.

The Impact of Subjective Work Control, Job Strain and Work–Family Conflict on Fertility Intentions: a European Comparison

The link between employment and fertility is often only examined by focussing on women’s labour market status or the impact of part- versus full-time employment. This study introduces a new explanation by extending research to examine how women’s subjective perceptions of control or autonomy over work, job strain and work–family conflict influence fertility intentions. National-level measures of childcare enrolment under the age of three and the occurrence of part-time work are also included to examine their relation to fertility intentions and their interplay with perceptions of work. Using data from 23 countries from the 2004/5 European Social Survey (ESS), multilevel logistic regression models of fertility intentions are estimated separately for women without children and women with one child. Women with higher levels of work control are significantly more likely to intend to have a second child. Higher levels of job strain (time pressure) significantly lower fertility intentions for mothers in contexts where childcare availability is low. The prevalence of part-time work amongst the female work force significantly predicts the intention to become a mother but has different effects for women who work part-time themselves compared with full-time employees.RésuméLa relation entre emploi et fécondité est souvent étudiée en se centrant exclusivement sur le statut de la femme sur le marché du travail et sur l’impact du temps partiel par rapport au temps plein. Cette étude propose une nouvelle approche en étudiant la façon dont les perceptions subjectives de la femme relatives à son contrôle du travail ou à son autonomie, le stress lié au travail et le conflit travail-famille influencent les intentions de fécondité. Des mesures au niveau national des taux d’accueil d’enfants de moins de trois ans en structure collective et des possibilités de travail à temps partiel sont également prises en compte afin de comprendre à la fois leur impact et leur relation avec les perceptions subjectives du travail salarié et intentions de fécondité. A partir des données de l’Enquête sociale européenne de 2004/5 provenant de 23 pays, des modèles de régression logistique multi-niveaux, avec pour variable dépendante les intentions de fécondité, sont estimés pour les femmes sans enfant et celles avec un enfant. La probabilité de vouloir un deuxième enfant est significativement plus élevée chez les femmes qui ont un plus haut niveau de contrôle sur leur travail. De plus hauts niveaux de stress lié au travail (contraintes de temps) sont associés significativement à des plus faibles intentions de fécondité dans des contextes de faible taux d’accueil des enfants en bas âge. La prévalence du travail à temps partiel parmi les femmes actives est associée significativement à l’intention de devenir mère, mais avec des effets différents selon que les femmes aient elles-mêmes un travail à temps partiel ou à temps plein.