Melissa A. Kenney

Methods for translating narrative scenarios into quantitative assessments of land use change

In the land use and land cover (LULC) literature, narrative scenarios are qualitative descriptions of plausible futures associated with a combination of socio-economic, policy, technological, and climate changes. LULC models are then often used to translate these narrative descriptions into quantitative characterizations of possible future societal and ecological impacts and conditions. To respect the intent of the underlying scenario descriptions, this process of translation needs to be thoughtful, transparent, and reproducible. This paper evaluates the current state of the art in scenario translation methods and outlines their relative advantages and disadvantages, as well as the respective roles of stakeholders and subject matter experts. We summarize our findings in the form of a decision matrix that can assist land use planners, scientists, and modelers in choosing a translation method appropriate to their situation. Assessments of land use and land cover change often employ narrative scenarios.Detailed evaluation of policy actions and outcomes requires quantitative model output.We review methods of translating narrative scenarios into model-based assessments.A summary table provides guidance for choosing a method suitable for the situation.

Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges

Two foundational questions about sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect these trajectories?” Answering these questions requires an ability to forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most ecological forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting the needs of near-term (daily to decadal) environmental decision-making nor allowing comparison of specific, quantitative predictions to new observational data, one of the strongest tests of scientific theory. Near-term forecasts provide the opportunity to iteratively cycle between performing analyses and updating predictions in light of new evidence. This iterative process of gaining feedback, building experience, and correcting models and methods is critical for improving forecasts. Iterative, near-term forecasting will accelerate ecological research, make it more relevant to society, and inform sustainable decision-making under high uncertainty and adaptive management. Here, we identify the immediate scientific and societal needs, opportunities, and challenges for iterative near-term ecological forecasting. Over the past decade, data volume, variety, and accessibility have greatly increased, but challenges remain in interoperability, latency, and uncertainty quantification. Similarly, ecologists have made considerable advances in applying computational, informatic, and statistical methods, but opportunities exist for improving forecast-specific theory, methods, and cyberinfrastructure. Effective forecasting will also require changes in scientific training, culture, and institutions. The need to start forecasting is now; the time for making ecology more predictive is here, and learning by doing is the fastest route to drive the science forward.

National Climate Assessment Indicators: Background, Development, and Examples

Indicators are usually thought of as measurements or calculations that represent important features of the status, trend, or performance of a system of interest (e.g. the economy, agriculture, air quality). They are often used for the most practical of reasons – one cannot measure everything important about systems of interest, so there is a practical need to identify major features that can be reported periodically and used to guide both research and decisions (NRC 2000).

Building an integrated U.S. National Climate Indicators System

During the development of the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment, an indicators system was recommended as a foundational product to support a sustained assessment process (Buizer et al. 2013). The development of this system, which we call the National Climate Indicators System (NCIS), has been an important early product of a sustained assessment process. In this paper, we describe the scoping and development of recommendations and prototypes for the NCIS, with the expectation that the process and lessons learned will be useful to others developing suites of indicators. Key factors of initial success are detailed, as well as a robust vision and decision criteria for future development; we also provide suggestions for voluntary support of the broader scientific community, and for funding priorities, including a research team to coordinate and prototype the indicators, system, and process. Moving forward, sufficient coordination and scientific expertise to implement and maintain the NCIS, as well as creation of a structure for scientific input from the broader community, will be crucial to its success.

Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

The Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment workshop, sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for the National Climate Assessment (NCA), was held on April 28-29, 2011 at The Madison Hotel in Washington, DC. A group of 56 experts (see list in Appendix B) convened to share their experiences. Participants brought to bear a wide range of disciplinary expertise in the social and natural sciences, sector experience, and knowledge about developing and implementing indicators for a range of purposes. Participants included representatives from federal and state government, non-governmental organizations, tribes, universities, and communities. The purpose of the workshop was to assist the NCA in developing a strategic framework for climate-related physical, ecological, and socioeconomic indicators that can be easily communicated with the U.S. population and that will support monitoring, assessment, prediction, evaluation, and decision-making. The NCA indicators are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The workshop participants were asked to provide input on a number of topics, including: (1) categories of societal indicators for the NCA; (2) alternative approaches to constructing indicators and the better approaches for NCA to consider; (3) specific requirements and criteria for implementing the indicators; and (4) sources of data for and creators of such indicators. Socioeconomic indicators could include demographic, cultural, behavioral, economic, public health, and policy components relevant to impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation to climate change as well as both proactive and reactive responses to climate change. Participants provided inputs through in-depth discussion in breakout sessions, plenary sessions on break-out results, and several panels that provided key insights about indicators, lessons learned through experience with developing and implementing indicators, and thoughts on how the NCA could proceed to develop indicators for the NCA.

Reconceptualizing the Role of Infrastructure in Resilience

The Sustainable Adaptive Gradients in the Coastal Environment (SAGE) research collaboration network is composed of U.S., Caribbean, and European engineers, geoscientists, ecologists, social scientists, planners, and policy makers. The goal of SAGE is to establish international, cross-disciplinary networks of researchers working on resilient coastal infrastructure (gray, green, and cultural), with a focus on understanding how varying coastal characteristics contribute toward resilient adaptation strategies (funded under National Science Foundation grant ICER-1338767).

Call for new AAAS harassment policy

![Figure][1] AAAS Leshner Leadership Institute fellows are calling on AAAS to instate a harassment policy that rescinds honors in the case of misconduct. ILLUSTRATION: ADAPTED BY C. AYCOCK/ SCIENCE FROM ISTOCK.COM/SORBETTO AND ISTOCK.COM/PURUAN As fellows of the AAAS Leshner Leadership Institute for Public Engagement with Science (“Public engagement helps scientists tackle global challenges,” A. Q. Hoy, Association Affairs, 27 July, p. [372][2]), we are writing to express concern that AAAS (the publisher of Science ) continues to honor scientists who have engaged in harassment. Harassment, including sexual and gender harassment, is scientific misconduct, and its effects influence the daily lives of scientists, especially those who are from underrepresented populations. Honoring harassers sends a message to the entire scientific community that a harassers individual scientific achievements are considered more valuable than their victims as well as more valuable than the severe, widespread effects of a culture of harassment on the careers, livelihoods, and scientific potential of a much broader population. Currently, no clear mechanism exists for preventing individuals who have damaged science by engaging in harassment from receiving and retaining awards, titles, and honors from AAAS. We urge AAAS to adopt a strong, enforceable policy to address harassment and discrimination, along with other types of scientific misconduct, among honorees (including elected fellows and award recipients). A meaningful policy would be applied prospectively and retroactively, require disclosure of institutional findings of professional misconduct, establish transparent and accountable procedures to report incidents, and make recommendations for appropriate responses, including revoking honors. Such an awards and honors policy would send a message that behavior that harms, degrades, and discriminates is incompatible with attaining the highest levels of scientific recognition. We would welcome its application to our own and future Leshner cohorts. We were selected as Leshner fellows for our commitment to public engagement and institutional change. An inclusive scientific community is necessary for fulfilling these goals. By taking a leadership role on this important issue, we believe that AAAS can serve as a model for other institutions and professional societies. 1. An expanded version of our letter and a list of signatories is available at [https://sites.google.com/view/timesupaaas][3]. [1]: pending:yes [2]: /lookup/doi/10.1126/science.361.6400.372 [3]: http://sites.google.com/view/timesupaaas

Tracking a changing climate: citizen science contributions to climate change indicator systems

A longer workshop report will be available this spring at http://1.usa.gov/1KsdhWp Indicators can be thought of as a way to measure or calculate the status, trend, or performance of a given system. As an example, many businesses look at the unemployment index to gauge the health of the economy. Similarly, climate-relevant indicators—whether ecological, physical, or societal—can help communicate key aspects of the changing environment, point out vulnerabilities, and inform decision making at local, state, and national levels. Indicators are an important part of the vision for the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA).