Melissa Songer

Fragmentation of Asia's remaining wildlands: implications for Asian elephant conservation

Habitat loss and fragmentation are main causes for Asian elephant population declines. We mapped wildlands - large, unfragmented and undeveloped areas - asking: (1) Where are the largest wildlands that constitute elephant habitats? (2) What proportion of these wildlands is protected? (3) What is their potential for elephant conservation? Our study demonstrates that wildlands constitute only 51% of the Asian elephant range. Myanmar has the largest wildland (∼170,000 km2), followed by Thailand and India. In Principal Components Analysis (PCA), the first two components explained 73% of the variation in fragmentation among ranges. We identified three fragmentation clusters from the PCA. Cluster A contains large ranges with unfragmented wildlands; cluster B includes ranges with well-developed transportation networks and large human populations; and cluster C contains ranges with severely fragmented wildlands. In cluster A, we identified four ranges with elephant populations >1000 animals: ARYO, MYUC, BNMH and BITE. Together with ranges that support >1000 elephants in cluster B, these A ranges have great potential for long-term elephant conservation. We propose that fragmentation clusters and population size can be used to identify different elephant monitoring and management zones.

Forest cover change patterns in Myanmar (Burma) 1990-2000

Myanmar is one of the most forested countries in mainland South-east Asia. These forests support a large number of important species and endemics and have great value for global efforts in biodiversity conservation. Landsat satellite imagery from the 1990s and 2000s was used to develop a countrywide forest map and estimate deforestation. The country has retained much of its forest cover, but forests have declined by 0.3% annually. Deforestation varied considerably among administrative units, with central and more populated states and divisions showing the highest losses. Ten deforestation hotspots had annual deforestation rates well above the countrywide average. Major reasons for forest losses in these hotspots stemmed from increased agricultural conversion, fuelwood consumption, charcoal production, commercial logging and plantation development. While Myanmar continues to be a stronghold for closed canopy forests, several areas have been experiencing serious deforestation. Most notable are the mangrove forests in the Ayeyarwady delta region and the remaining dry forests at the northern edge of the central dry zone.

Modeling Impacts of Climate Change on Giant Panda Habitat

Giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) are one of the most widely recognized endangered species globally. Habitat loss and fragmentation are the main threats, and climate change could significantly impact giant panda survival. We integrated giant panda habitat information with general climate models (GCMs) to predict future geographic distribution and fragmentation of giant panda habitat. Results support a major general prediction of climate change—a shift of habitats towards higher elevation and higher latitudes. Our models predict climate change could reduce giant panda habitat by nearly 60% over 70 years. New areas may become suitable outside the current geographic range but much of these areas is far from the current giant panda range and only 15% fall within the current protected area system. Long-term survival of giant pandas will require the creation of new protected areas that are likely to support suitable habitat even if the climate changes.

Setting Priorities for Tiger Conservation: 2005–2015

Publisher Summary Tigers are increasingly disappearing from the ecosystems where they evolved and the nation states in which they live. Their vast range in Asia has been reduced to a small number of isolated populations, they are hunted intensively for the trade in tiger parts, and the prey on which they depend is reduced throughout much of their range. Many different people and organizations are striving to reverse these trends. Species conservation planning is the science and art of allocating conservation efforts to those priority places and actions that will provide the greatest returns for species survival and ecological function in the wild. It requires clearly stated goals, an assessment of the current status of the species, a directed process for selecting where to work, and a mechanism to measure success. The field of species conservation planning as a whole has changed over the past decade. Species conservation planning has also changed in terms of the data and methods available. This chapter outlines the datasets and methods used, presents the essential results, and sets measurable conservation goals against which future efforts—successful or otherwise—can be measured.Publisher Summary Tigers are increasingly disappearing from the ecosystems where they evolved and the nation states in which they live. Their vast range in Asia has been reduced to a small number of isolated populations, they are hunted intensively for the trade in tiger parts, and the prey on which they depend is reduced throughout much of their range. Many different people and organizations are striving to reverse these trends. Species conservation planning is the science and art of allocating conservation efforts to those priority places and actions that will provide the greatest returns for species survival and ecological function in the wild. It requires clearly stated goals, an assessment of the current status of the species, a directed process for selecting where to work, and a mechanism to measure success. The field of species conservation planning as a whole has changed over the past decade. Species conservation planning has also changed in terms of the data and methods available. This chapter outlines the datasets and methods used, presents the essential results, and sets measurable conservation goals against which future efforts—successful or otherwise—can be measured.

Mapping Distinct Forest Types Improves Overall Forest Identification Based on Multi-Spectral Landsat Imagery for Myanmar’s Tanintharyi Region

We investigated the use of multi-spectral Landsat OLI imagery for delineating mangrove, lowland evergreen, upland evergreen and mixed deciduous forest types in Myanmar’s Tanintharyi Region and estimated the extent of degraded forest for each unique forest type. We mapped a total of 16 natural and human land use classes using both a Random Forest algorithm and a multivariate Gaussian model while considering scenarios with all natural forest classes grouped into a single intact or degraded category. Overall, classification accuracy increased for the multivariate Gaussian model with the partitioning of intact and degraded forest into separate forest cover classes but slightly decreased based on the Random Forest classifier. Natural forest cover was estimated to be 80.7% of total area in Tanintharyi. The most prevalent forest types are upland evergreen forest (42.3% of area) and lowland evergreen forest (21.6%). However, while just 27.1% of upland evergreen forest was classified as degraded (on the basis of canopy cover <80%), 66.0% of mangrove forest and 47.5% of the region’s biologically-rich lowland evergreen forest were classified as degraded. This information on the current status of Tanintharyi’s unique forest ecosystems and patterns of human land use is critical to effective conservation strategies and land-use planning.

Water Use Patterns of Sympatric Przewalski's Horse and Khulan: Interspecific Comparison Reveals Niche Differences.

Acquiring water is essential for all animals, but doing so is most challenging for desert-living animals. Recently Przewalski’s horse has been reintroduced to the desert area in China where the last wild surviving member of the species was seen before it vanished from China in the1960s. Its reintroduction placed it within the range of a close evolutionary relative, the con-generic Khulan. Determining whether or not these two species experience competition and whether or not such competition was responsible for the extinction of Przewalski’s horses in the wild over 50 years ago, requires identifying the fundamental and realized niches of both species. We remotely monitored the presence of both species at a variety of water points during the dry season in Kalamaili Nature Reserve, Xinjiang, China. Przewalski’s horses drank twice per day mostly during daylight hours at low salinity water sources while Khulans drank mostly at night usually at high salinity water points or those far from human residences. Spatial and temporal differences in water use enables coexistence, but suggest that Przewalski’s horses also restrict the actions of Khulan. Such differences in both the fundamental and realized niches were associated with differences in physiological tolerances for saline water and human activity as well as differences in aggression and dominance.

Assessment of Mining Extent and Expansion in Myanmar Based on Freely-Available Satellite Imagery

Using freely-available data and open-source software, we developed a remote sensing methodology to identify mining areas and assess recent mining expansion in Myanmar. Our country-wide analysis used Landsat 8 satellite data from a select number of mining areas to create a raster layer of potential mining areas. We used this layer to guide a systematic scan of freely-available fine-resolution imagery, such as Google Earth, in order to digitize likely mining areas. During this process, each mining area was assigned a ranking indicating our certainty in correct identification of the mining land use. Finally, we identified areas of recent mining expansion based on the change in albedo, or brightness, between Landsat images from 2002 and 2015. We identified 90,041 ha of potential mining areas in Myanmar, of which 58% (52,312 ha) was assigned high certainty, 29% (26,251 ha) medium certainty, and 13% (11,478 ha) low certainty. Of the high-certainty mining areas, 62% of bare ground was disturbed (had a large increase in albedo) since 2002. This four-month project provides the first publicly-available database of mining areas in Myanmar, and it demonstrates an approach for large-scale assessment of mining extent and expansion based on freely-available data.

Roads to Recovery or Catastrophic Loss: How Will the Next Decade End for Wild Tigers?

Publisher Summary This chapter summarizes the trends revealed by two range-wide analyses on the conservation potential of tigers, performed a decade apart. The analysis is focuses on the managing large landscapes that harbor populations of tigers across all the ecotypes they inhabit. The second range-wide assessment is used to present three possible future scenarios for tigers. The first scenario extends the status quo of current rates of decline in tiger habitat and connectivity. The second projects the consequences of modest habitat restoration on landscapes and populations. The third invokes the importance of governments, NGOs, and others to make strong, lasting commitments to save tiger lands and tigers. The latter also predicts the disastrous effects of a legalized trade in farmed tigers on wild populations that will exacerbate other more regional effects such as the spread of logging into remaining habitats and the growth of the palm oil industry in the region.

Rapid forest clearing in a Myanmar proposed national park threatens two newly discovered species of geckos (Gekkonidae: Cyrtodactylus)

Myanmar’s recent transition from military rule towards a more democratic government has largely ended decades of political and economic isolation. Although Myanmar remains heavily forested, increased development in recent years has been accompanied by exceptionally high rates of forest loss. In this study, we document the rapid progression of deforestation in and around the proposed Lenya National Park, which includes some of the largest remaining areas of lowland evergreen rainforest in mainland Southeast Asia. The globally unique forests in this area are rich in biodiversity and remain a critical stronghold for many threatened and endangered species, including large charismatic fauna such as tiger and Asian elephant. We also conducted a rapid assessment survey of the herpetofauna of the proposed national park, which resulted in the discovery of two new species of bent-toed geckos, genus Cyrtodactylus. We describe these new species, C. lenya sp. nov. and C. payarhtanensis sp. nov., which were found in association with karst (i.e., limestone) rock formations within mature lowland wet evergreen forest. The two species were discovered less than 35 km apart and are each known from only a single locality. Because of the isolated nature of the karst formations in the proposed Lenya National Park, these geckos likely have geographical ranges restricted to the proposed protected area and are threatened by approaching deforestation. Although lowland evergreen rainforest has vanished from most of continental Southeast Asia, Myanmar can still take decisive action to preserve one of the most biodiverse places on Earth.

Losing a jewel-Rapid declines in Myanmar's intact forests from 2002-2014

New and rapid political and economic changes in Myanmar are increasing the pressures on the country’s forests. Yet, little is known about the past and current condition of these forests and how fast they are declining. We mapped forest cover in Myanmar through a consortium of international organizations and environmental non-governmental groups, using freely-available public domain data and open source software tools. We used Landsat satellite imagery to assess the condition and spatial distribution of Myanmar’s intact and degraded forests with special focus on changes in intact forest between 2002 and 2014. We found that forests cover 42,365,729 ha or 63% of Myanmar, making it one of the most forested countries in the region. However, severe logging, expanding plantations, and degradation pose increasing threats. Only 38% of the country’s forests can be considered intact with canopy cover >80%. Between 2002 and 2014, intact forests declined at a rate of 0.94% annually, totaling more than 2 million ha forest loss. Losses can be extremely high locally and we identified 9 townships as forest conversion hotspots. We also delineated 13 large (>100,000 ha) and contiguous intact forest landscapes, which are dispersed across Myanmar. The Northern Forest Complex supports four of these landscapes, totaling over 6.1 million ha of intact forest, followed by the Southern Forest Complex with three landscapes, comprising 1.5 million ha. These remaining contiguous forest landscape should have high priority for protection. Our project demonstrates how open source data and software can be used to develop and share critical information on forests when such data are not readily available elsewhere. We provide all data, code, and outputs freely via the internet at (for scripts: https://bitbucket.org/rsbiodiv/; for the data: http://geonode.themimu.info/layers/geonode%3Amyan_lvl2_smoothed_dec2015_resamp)