Melodie A. McGeoch

Global Biodiversity: Indicators of Recent Declines

Global Biodiversity Target Missed In 2002, the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) committed to a significant reduction in the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010. There has been widespread conjecture that this target has not been met. Butchart et al. (p. 1164, published online 29 April) analyzed over 30 indicators developed within the CBDs framework. These indicators include the condition or state of biodiversity (e.g., species numbers, population sizes), the pressures on biodiversity (e.g., deforestation), and the responses to maintain biodiversity (e.g., protected areas) and were assessed between about 1970 and 2005. Taken together, the results confirm that we have indeed failed to meet the 2010 targets. An analysis of 30 indicators shows that the Convention on Biological Diversity’s 2010 targets have not been met. In 2002, world leaders committed, through the Convention on Biological Diversity, to achieve a significant reduction in the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010. We compiled 31 indicators to report on progress toward this target. Most indicators of the state of biodiversity (covering species’ population trends, extinction risk, habitat extent and condition, and community composition) showed declines, with no significant recent reductions in rate, whereas indicators of pressures on biodiversity (including resource consumption, invasive alien species, nitrogen pollution, overexploitation, and climate change impacts) showed increases. Despite some local successes and increasing responses (including extent and biodiversity coverage of protected areas, sustainable forest management, policy responses to invasive alien species, and biodiversity-related aid), the rate of biodiversity loss does not appear to be slowing.

THE SELECTION, TESTING AND APPLICATION OF TERRESTRIAL INSECTS AS BIOINDICATORS

Although the uses and merits of terrestrial insects as indicators have been extensively discussed, there is a lack of clear definition, goal directedness and hypothesis testing in studies in the field. In an attempt to redress some of these issues and outline an approach for further studies, three categories of terrestrial insect indicators, corresponding to differences in their application, are proposed, i.e. environmental, ecological and biodiversity indicators. The procedures in terrestrial insect bioindicator studies should start with a clear definition of the study objectives and proposed use of the bioindicator, as well as with a consideration of the scale at which the study is to be carried out. Bioindication studies are conducted at a variety of spatial and temporal scales within the context of earth‐system processes, but the objectives of the study will largely determine the scale at which it would be optimally conducted. There is a tendency for studies to be conducted below their space‐time scaling functions, giving them apparent predictability. The selection of potential indicator taxa or groups is then based on a priori suitability criteria, the identification of predictive relationships between the indicator and environmental variables and, most importantly, the development and testing of hypotheses according to the correlative patterns found. Finally, recommendations for the use of the indicator in monitoring should be made. Although advocating rigorous, long‐term protocols to identify indicators may presently be questionable in the face of the urgency with which conservation decisions have to be made, this approach is critical if bioindicators are to be used with any measurable degree of confidence.

Essential Biodiversity Variables

A global system of harmonized observations is needed to inform scientists and policy-makers. Reducing the rate of biodiversity loss and averting dangerous biodiversity change are international goals, reasserted by the Aichi Targets for 2020 by Parties to the United Nations (UN) Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) after failure to meet the 2010 target (1, 2). However, there is no global, harmonized observation system for delivering regular, timely data on biodiversity change (3). With the first plenary meeting of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) soon under way, partners from the Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON) (4) are developing—and seeking consensus around—Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) that could form the basis of monitoring programs worldwide.

Phenotypic plasticity mediates climate change responses among invasive and indigenous arthropods

Synergies between global change and biological invasion have been identified as a major potential threat to global biodiversity and human welfare. The global change-type drought characteristic of many temperate terrestrial ecosystems is especially significant because it will apparently favour invasive over indigenous species, adding to the burden of conservation and compromising ecosystem service delivery. However, the nature of and mechanisms underlying this synergy remain poorly explored. Here we show that in a temperate terrestrial ecosystem, invasive and indigenous springtail species differ in the form of their phenotypic plasticity such that warmer conditions promote survival of desiccation in the invasive species and reduce it in the indigenous ones. These differences are consistent with significant declines in the densities of indigenous species and little change in those of invasive species in a manipulative field experiment that mimicked climate change trends. We suggest that it is not so much the extent of phenotypic plasticity that distinguishes climate change responses among these invasive and indigenous species, as the form that this plasticity takes. Nonetheless, this differential physiological response provides support for the idea that in temperate terrestrial systems experiencing global change-type drought, invasive species may well be at an advantage relative to their indigenous counterparts.

Occupancy frequency distributions: patterns, artefacts and mechanisms

Numerous hypotheses have been proposed to explain the shape of occupancy frequency distributions (distributions of the numbers of species occupying different numbers of areas). Artefactual effects include sampling characteristics, whereas biological mechanisms include organismal, niche‐based and metapopulation models. To date, there has been little testing of these models. In addition, although empirically derived occupancy distributions encompass an array of taxa and spatial scales, comparisons between them are often not possible because of differences in sampling protocol and method of construction. In this paper, the effects of sampling protocol (grain, sample number, extent, sampling coverage and intensity) on the shape of occupancy distributions are examined, and approaches for minimising artefactual effects recommended. Evidence for proposed biological determinants of the shape of occupancy distributions is then examined. Good support exists for some mechanisms (habitat and environmental heterogeneity), little for others (dispersal ability), while some hypotheses remain untested (landscape productivity, position in geographic range, range size frequency distributions), or are unlikely to be useful explanations for the shape of occupancy distributions (species specificity and adaptation to habitat, extinction–colonization dynamics). The presence of a core (class containing species with the highest occupancy) mode in occupancy distributions is most likely to be associated with larger sample units, and small homogenous sampling areas positioned well within and towards the range centers of a sufficient proportion of the species in the assemblage. Satellite (class with species with the lowest occupancy) modes are associated with sampling large, heterogeneous areas that incorporate a large proportion of the assemblage range. However, satellite modes commonly also occur in the presence of a core mode, and rare species effects are likely to contribute to the presence of a satellite mode at most sampling scales. In most proposed hypotheses, spatial scale is an important determinant of the shape of the observed occupancy distribution. Because the attributes of the mechanisms associated with these hypotheses change with spatial scale, their predictions for the shape of occupancy distributions also change. To understand occupancy distributions and the mechanisms underlying them, a synthesis of pattern documentation and model testing across scales is thus needed. The development of null models, comparisons of occupancy distributions across spatial scales and taxa, documentation of the movement of individual species between occupancy classes with changes in spatial scale, as well as further testing of biological mechanisms are all necessary for an improved understanding of the distribution of species and assemblages within their geographic ranges.

Relative roles of climatic suitability and anthropogenic influence in determining the pattern of spread in a global invader

Because invasive species threaten the integrity of natural ecosystems, a major goal in ecology is to develop predictive models to determine which species may become widespread and where they may invade. Indeed, considerable progress has been made in understanding the factors that influence the local pattern of spread for specific invaders and the factors that are correlated with the number of introduced species that have become established in a given region. However, few studies have examined the relative importance of multiple drivers of invasion success for widespread species at global scales. Here, we use a dataset of >5,000 presence/absence records to examine the interplay between climatic suitability, biotic resistance by native taxa, human-aided dispersal, and human modification of habitats, in shaping the distribution of one of the worlds most notorious invasive species, the Argentine ant (Linepithema humile). Climatic suitability and the extent of human modification of habitats are primarily responsible for the distribution of this global invader. However, we also found some evidence for biotic resistance by native communities. Somewhat surprisingly, and despite the often cited importance of propagule pressure as a crucial driver of invasions, metrics of the magnitude of international traded commodities among countries were not related to global distribution patterns. Together, our analyses on the global-scale distribution of this invasive species provide strong evidence for the interplay of biotic and abiotic determinants of spread and also highlight the challenges of limiting the spread and subsequent impact of highly invasive species.

Conservation of heterogeneity among dung beetles in the Maputaland Centre of Endemism, South Africa

Abstract In southern Africa the Maputaland Centre is one of the most significant, though less well-known, centres of biotic endemism. Here we examine variation in dung beetle assemblages between habitats and between reserves on two Maputaland reserves (Tembe Elephant Park and Sileza Nature Reserve). Dung beetle assemblages were found to be homogeneous within habitat types and within reserves, but assemblages differed between habitat types (Sand Forest and Mixed Woodland). There was, however, significant between-reserve heterogeneity in dung beetle assemblages for each particular habitat type. Given that there are significant differences in both dung beetles and plants, it is clear that these forests must be conserved in both Tembe and Sileza, especially because of increasing damage by elephants to Sand Forests in Tembe. We identify dung beetle indicator species that are specific to each habitat type in each reserve, and detector species that can be used to monitor changes in Sand Forests in those reserves. ©

The changing form of Antarctic biodiversity

Antarctic biodiversity is much more extensive, ecologically diverse and biogeographically structured than previously thought. Understanding of how this diversity is distributed in marine and terrestrial systems, the mechanisms underlying its spatial variation, and the significance of the microbiota is growing rapidly. Broadly recognizable drivers of diversity variation include energy availability and historical refugia. The impacts of local human activities and global environmental change nonetheless pose challenges to the current and future understanding of Antarctic biodiversity. Life in the Antarctic and the Southern Ocean is surprisingly rich, and as much at risk from environmental change as it is elsewhere.

Uncertainty in invasive alien species listing

Lists of invasive alien species (IAS) are essential for preventing, controlling, and reporting on the state of biological invasions. However, these lists suffer from a range of errors, with serious consequences for their use in science, policy, and management. Here we (1) collated and classified errors in IAS listing using a taxonomy of uncertainty; and (2) estimated the size of these errors using data from a completed listing exercise, with the purpose of better understanding, communicating, and dealing with them. Ten errors were identified. Most result from a lack of knowledge or measurement error (epistemic uncertainty), although two were a result of context dependence and vagueness (linguistic uncertainty). Estimates of the size of the effects of these errors were substantial in a number of cases and unknown in others. Most errors, and those with the largest estimated effect, result in underestimates of IAS numbers. However, there are a number of errors where the size and direction of the effect remains poorly understood. The effect of differences in opinion between specialists is potentially large, particularly for data-poor taxa and regions, and does not have a clearly directional or consistent effect on the size and composition of IAS lists. Five tactics emerged as important for reducing uncertainty in IAS lists, and while uncertainty will never be removed entirely, these approaches will significantly improve the transparency, repeatability, and comparability of IAS lists. Understanding the errors and uncertainties that occur during the process of listing invasive species, as well as the potential size and nature of their effects on IAS lists, is key to improving the value of these lists for governments, management agencies, and conservationists. Such understanding is increasingly important given positive trends in biological invasion and the associated risks to biodiversity and biosecurity.

Prioritizing species, pathways, and sites to achieve conservation targets for biological invasion

Prioritization is indispensable for the management of biological invasions, as recognized by the Convention on Biological Diversity, its current strategic plan, and specifically Aichi Target 9 that concerns invasive alien species. Here we provide an overview of the process, approaches and the data needs for prioritization for invasion policy and management, with the intention of informing and guiding efforts to address this target. Many prioritization schemes quantify impact and risk, from the pragmatic and action-focused to the data-demanding and science-based. Effective prioritization must consider not only invasive species and pathways (as mentioned in Aichi Target 9), but also which sites are most sensitive and susceptible to invasion (not made explicit in Aichi Target 9). Integrated prioritization across these foci may lead to future efficiencies in resource allocation for invasion management. Many countries face the challenge of prioritizing with little capacity and poor baseline data. We recommend a consultative, science-based process for prioritizing impacts based on species, pathways and sites, and outline the information needed by countries to achieve this. This should be integrated into a national process that incorporates a broad suite of social and economic criteria. Such a process is likely to be feasible for most countries.