Mercedes Alda

Do pension funds managers display stock-picking and market timing ability? Evidence from the United Kingdom and Spain

ABSTRACT This paper examines the stock-picking and market timing abilities of pension funds managers in the UK and Spanish markets, analysing their use of privileged information to implement management strategies and considering the possible effects of portfolio size. We take the analysis further by correcting benchmark omission bias. Our results reveal some degree of stock-picking ability, but perverse market timing ability, as well as incorrect use of privileged information in timing strategies. These findings are consistent with the portfolio size effect, although they are influenced by benchmark omission bias. The results obtained are very similar for both UK and Spanish pensions funds managers.

Performance of Spanish pension funds: robust evidence from alternative models

This article investigates the performance of Spanish pension funds using a range of linear and nonlinear performance models. As the sample presents characteristics of higher-order moments, traditional performance measures are distorted. We generate alternative performance models which include higher-order risk factors that model skewness and kurtosis; factors that capture nonlinearity inherent in some of the underlying assets used in pension funds. The results suggest that Spanish pension funds exhibit positive market timing and selectivity ability. Moreover, this positive performance is robust to the model used to adjust performance for risk, including the higher-order risk factors. The stronger performing pension funds have a higher exposure to size and book-to-market risk. Also, small-sized funds and funds with less volatility exhibit stronger performance.

Perverse timing or biased coefficients

The aim of this work is to examine the influence of mutual fund flows on market timing models, thus providing unbiased timing coefficients. However, as this control is motivated by the existing relationship between mutual fund flows and market returns, we first analyse this relationship, considering previous and concurrent market returns. However, unlike existing studies, we do not consider future returns, since investors do not observe them when making investment decisions. Thus, we feel it is more appropriate to consider expected market returns. We construct the expected market returns by running an AR model and considering the available public information about the macro-economy. The relationship is analysed under different conditions, considering a variety of different mutual fund flow measures, and considering (or not) the sensitivity of mutual fund flows to positive and negative market returns. We also propose different controls for the traditional timing models, and we further analyse the reverse-causality problem. The study demonstrates, for a sample of equity mutual funds registered for sale in the USA, that the poor market timing performance found in this and other prior studies can be completely attributed to the perverse effect of the fund managers’ liquidity service.

Management fees: Determinants and influence of legal limits. Evidence from Spanish pension funds

Pension funds in Spain have become of considerable importance in recent years. In fact, many studies have focused on fund performance and the adverse impact of fees, although little work has been done on analysis of the determinants of fees. Even though fees are restricted by legal limits in many countries, traditional models do not take these limits into account, and results could be biased; therefore, censored models (such as Tobit or CLAD) may provide a better fit. In this work, we study the determinants of management fees in Spanish equity pension funds. We find a better fit in the CLAD model, which provides unbiased and consistent estimators. Additionally, older and larger pension funds charge greater management fees and these fees increase with low volatility. However, fund returns and market returns barely affect such fees.

Pension fund manager skills over the economic cycle: the (non-)specialization cost

ABSTRACT We study whether pension fund managers, as professionals of important social and financial products, are able to add value for their clients and adapt to economic changes. To this end, we analyze the performance and skills (market timing and stock picking) over the economic cycle from both pension fund and manager perspectives. This double analysis allows examining whether skills reside in managers and/or funds and control for manager substitutions. Despite the long-term nature of pension funds, we find that both fund and manager skills vary with market conditions, showing better evidence of stock-picking in booms, and of market timing in recessions. Nonetheless, top (bottom) funds and managers exhibit both (incorrect) skills in booms and in recessions. Some of the top (bottom) funds and managers are the best (worst) in both abilities in the same periods, but not in different periods, showing that not all managers have the ability to adapt to market conditions. Additionally, managers with limited skills tend to specialize because diversification requires multi-task skills and the non-specialization of these managers usually results in incorrect skills.

Pension Fund Herding and the Influence of Management Style

ABSTRACT In this article, we study the herding phenomenon in Spanish equity pension funds with European investment locations from 2002 to 2012, considering whether the development of different investment strategies by the managers results in herding. In addition, we analyze the performance-herding relationship, observing whether pension fund performance decreases or increases when pension funds herd. Using the herding measure of Lakonishok et al. [1992], we do not find strong imitation behavior, although herding in the market and book-to-market styles are higher. Those pension funds that do not herd or that follow distinctive strategies do not present significant differences in performance with respect to herding funds.

Herding and timing abilities: are both possible?

We examine the existence of herding by institutional investors, analysing whether herding measures are affected in a mixed scenario, where certain skilled managers can develop timing abilities, and others herd. Studying a sample of Spanish pension funds investing in European equities from 2002 to 2013, this paper contributes to the financial literature by considering the possible influence of a range of timing abilities in herding. The results show the existence of certain timing abilities and herding, being the herding phenomenon more evident at the beginning of the current crisis and after the financial restructuring process experienced in Spain since 2010. Nonetheless, the market equilibrium is not affected in the long term. Our results also display that herding measures vary when taking into account timing abilities, so traditional herding measures do not fully capture the existence of mixed scenarios.