Merryn Voysey

Efficacy and safety of LDL-lowering therapy among men and women: meta-analysis of individual data from 174,000 participants in 27 randomised trials.

BACKGROUNDnWhether statin therapy is as effective in women as in men is debated, especially for primary prevention. We undertook a meta-analysis of statin trials in the Cholesterol Treatment Trialists (CTT) Collaboration database to compare the effects of statin therapy between women and men.nnnMETHODSnWe performed meta-analyses on data from 22 trials of statin therapy versus control (n=134,537) and five trials of more-intensive versus less-intensive statin therapy (n=39,612). Effects on major vascular events, major coronary events, stroke, coronary revascularisation and mortality were weighted per 1.0 mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol and effects in men and women compared with a Cox model that adjusted for non-sex differences. For subgroup analyses, we used 99% CIs to make allowance for the multiplicity of comparisons.nnnFINDINGSn46,675 (27%) of 174,149 randomly assigned participants were women. Allocation to a statin had similar absolute effects on 1 year lipid concentrations in both men and women (LDL cholesterol reduced by about 1.1 mmol/L in statin vs control trials and roughly 0.5 mmol/L for more-intensive vs less-intensive therapy). Women were generally at lower cardiovascular risk than were men in these trials. The proportional reductions per 1.0 mmol/L reduction in LDL cholesterol in major vascular events were similar overall for women (rate ratio [RR] 0.84, 99% CI 0.78-0.91) and men (RR 0.78, 99% CI 0.75-0.81, adjusted p value for heterogeneity by sex=0.33) and also for those women and men at less than 10% predicted 5 year absolute cardiovascular risk (adjusted heterogeneity p=0.11). Likewise, the proportional reductions in major coronary events, coronary revascularisation, and stroke did not differ significantly by sex. No adverse effect on rates of cancer incidence or non-cardiovascular mortality was noted for either sex. These net benefits translated into all-cause mortality reductions with statin therapy for both women (RR 0.91, 99% CI 0.84-0.99) and men (RR 0.90, 99% CI 0.86-0.95; adjusted heterogeneity p=0.43).nnnINTERPRETATIONnIn men and women at an equivalent risk of cardiovascular disease, statin therapy is of similar effectiveness for the prevention of major vascular events.nnnFUNDINGnUK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, European Community Biomed Program.

Community treatment orders for patients with psychosis (OCTET): a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUNDnCompulsory supervision outside hospital has been developed internationally for the treatment of mentally ill people following widespread deinstitutionalisation but its efficacy has not yet been proven. Community treatment orders (CTOs) for psychiatric patients became available in England and Wales in 2008. We tested whether CTOs reduce admissions compared with use of Section 17 leave when patients in both groups receive equivalent levels of clinical contact but different lengths of compulsory supervision.nnnMETHODSnOCTET is a non-blinded, parallel-arm randomised controlled trial. We postulated that patients with a diagnosis of psychosis discharged from hospital on CTOs would have a lower rate of readmission over 12 months than those discharged on the pre-existing Section 17 leave of absence. Eligible patients were those involuntarily admitted to hospital with a diagnosis of psychosis, aged 18-65 years, who were deemed suitable for supervised outpatient care by their clinicians. Consenting patients were randomly assigned (1:1 ratio) to be discharged from hospital either on CTO or Section 17 leave. Randomisation used random permuted blocks with lengths of two, four, and six, and stratified for sex, schizophrenic diagnosis, and duration of illness. Research assistants, treating clinicians, and patients were aware of assignment to randomisation group. The primary outcome measure was whether or not the patient was admitted to hospital during the 12-month follow-up period, analysed with a log-binomial regression model adjusted for stratification factors. We did all analyses by intention to treat. This trial is registered, number ISRCTN73110773.nnnFINDINGSnOf 442 patients assessed, 336 patients were randomly assigned to be discharged from hospital either on CTO (167 patients) or Section 17 leave (169 patients). One patient withdrew directly after randomisation and two were ineligible, giving a total sample of 333 patients (166 in the CTO group and 167 in the Section 17 group). At 12 months, despite the fact that the length of initial compulsory outpatient treatment differed significantly between the two groups (median 183 days CTO group vs 8 days Section 17 group, p<0·001) the number of patients readmitted did not differ between groups (59 [36%] of 166 patients in the CTO group vs 60 [36%] of 167 patients in the Section 17 group; adjusted relative risk 1·0 [95% CI 0·75-1·33]).nnnINTERPRETATIONnIn well coordinated mental health services the imposition of compulsory supervision does not reduce the rate of readmission of psychotic patients. We found no support in terms of any reduction in overall hospital admission to justify the significant curtailment of patients personal liberty.nnnFUNDINGnNational Institute of Health Research.

External validation of multivariable prediction models: a systematic review of methodological conduct and reporting

BackgroundBefore considering whether to use a multivariable (diagnostic or prognostic) prediction model, it is essential that its performance be evaluated in data that were not used to develop the model (referred to as external validation). We critically appraised the methodological conduct and reporting of external validation studies of multivariable prediction models.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review of articles describing some form of external validation of one or more multivariable prediction models indexed in PubMed core clinical journals published in 2010. Study data were extracted in duplicate on design, sample size, handling of missing data, reference to the original study developing the prediction models and predictive performance measures.Results11,826 articles were identified and 78 were included for full review, which described the evaluation of 120 prediction models. in participant data that were not used to develop the model. Thirty-three articles described both the development of a prediction model and an evaluation of its performance on a separate dataset, and 45 articles described only the evaluation of an existing published prediction model on another dataset. Fifty-seven percent of the prediction models were presented and evaluated as simplified scoring systems. Sixteen percent of articles failed to report the number of outcome events in the validation datasets. Fifty-four percent of studies made no explicit mention of missing data. Sixty-seven percent did not report evaluating model calibration whilst most studies evaluated model discrimination. It was often unclear whether the reported performance measures were for the full regression model or for the simplified models.ConclusionsThe vast majority of studies describing some form of external validation of a multivariable prediction model were poorly reported with key details frequently not presented. The validation studies were characterised by poor design, inappropriate handling and acknowledgement of missing data and one of the most key performance measures of prediction models i.e. calibration often omitted from the publication. It may therefore not be surprising that an overwhelming majority of developed prediction models are not used in practice, when there is a dearth of well-conducted and clearly reported (external validation) studies describing their performance on independent participant data.

Safety and Immunogenicity of Novel Adenovirus Type 26– and Modified Vaccinia Ankara–Vectored Ebola Vaccines: A Randomized Clinical Trial

IMPORTANCEnDeveloping effective vaccines against Ebola virus is a global priority.nnnOBJECTIVEnTo evaluate an adenovirus type 26 vector vaccine encoding Ebola glycoprotein (Ad26.ZEBOV) and a modified vaccinia Ankara vector vaccine, encoding glycoproteins from Ebola virus, Sudan virus, Marburg virus, and Tai Forest virus nucleoprotein (MVA-BN-Filo).nnnDESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTSnSingle-center, randomized, placebo-controlled, observer-blind, phase 1 trial performed in Oxford, United Kingdom, enrolling healthy 18- to 50-year-olds from December 2014; 8-month follow-up was completed October 2015.nnnINTERVENTIONSnParticipants were randomized into 4 groups, within which they were simultaneously randomized 5:1 to receive study vaccines or placebo. Those receiving active vaccines were primed with Ad26.ZEBOV (5u2009×u200910(10) viral particles) or MVA-BN-Filo (1u2009×u200910(8) median tissue culture infective dose) and boosted with the alternative vaccine 28 or 56 days later. A fifth, open-label group received Ad26.ZEBOV boosted by MVA-BN-Filo 14 days later.nnnMAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURESnThe primary outcomes were safety and tolerability. All adverse events were recorded until 21 days after each immunization; serious adverse events were recorded throughout the trial. Secondary outcomes were humoral and cellular immune responses to immunization, as assessed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and enzyme-linked immunospot performed at baseline and from 7 days after each immunization until 8 months after priming immunizations.nnnRESULTSnAmong 87 study participants (median age, 38.5 years; 66.7% female), 72 were randomized into 4 groups of 18, and 15 were included in the open-label group. Four participants did not receive a booster dose; 67 of 75 study vaccine recipients were followed up at 8 months. No vaccine-related serious adverse events occurred. No participant became febrile after MVA-BN-Filo, compared with 3 of 60 participants (5%; 95% CI, 1%-14%) receiving Ad26.ZEBOV in the randomized groups. In the open-label group, 4 of 15 Ad26.ZEBOV recipients (27%; 95% CI, 8%-55%) experienced fever. In the randomized groups, 28 of 29 Ad26.ZEBOV recipients (97%; 95% CI, 82%- 99.9%) and 7 of 30 MVA-BN-Filo recipients (23%; 95% CI, 10%-42%) had detectable Ebola glycoprotein-specific IgG 28 days after primary immunization. All vaccine recipients had specific IgG detectable 21 days postboost and at 8-month follow-up. Within randomized groups, at 7 days postboost, at least 86% of vaccine recipients showed Ebola-specific T-cell responses.nnnCONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCEnIn this phase 1 study of healthy volunteers, immunization with Ad26.ZEBOV or MVA-BN-Filo did not result in any vaccine-related serious adverse events. An immune response was observed after primary immunization with Ad26.ZEBOV; boosting by MVA-BN-Filo resulted in sustained elevation of specific immunity. These vaccines are being further assessed in phase 2 and 3 studies.nnnTRIAL REGISTRATIONnclinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT02313077.

Increase in cholesterol predicts survival advantage in renal cell carcinoma patients treated with temsirolimus

Purpose: Temsirolimus is an effective treatment for renal cell carcinoma. It is associated with increases in serum cholesterol, triglyceride, and glucose. We investigated whether changes of these biomarkers could predict its efficacy. Experimental Design: We examined serial measurements of cholesterol, triglycerides, and glucose from patients randomized to IFN or temsirolimus in the Global Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma Trial. Using time-dependent proportional hazards models, we quantified the association between changes in these biomarkers from baseline with overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). We also assess the extent to which changes of these biomarkers predict the effects of temsirolimus on survival. Results: Temsirolimus was associated with larger mean increases in cholesterol (1.02 mmol/L; P < 0.0001), triglycerides (0.32 mmol/L; P = 0.0008), and glucose (1.28 mmol/L; P < 0.0001) compared with IFN and improved survival rate (OS: HR = 0.76, P = 0.02; PFS: HR = 0.70, P = 0.001). Cholesterol increase during study was associated with longer survival (OS: HR = 0.77 per mmol/L, P < 0.0001; PFS: HR = 0.81 per mmol/L; P < 0.0001). Temsirolimus effect on cholesterol predicted its effect on survival with no additional survival advantage observed after adjusting for cholesterol change during study (OS: HR = 1.14, P = 0.37; PFS: HR = 0.88, P = 0.35). Temsirolimus effect on triglycerides or glucose did not predict its effect on survival, with survival advantage in favor of temsirolimus still observed after adjusting for these factors (P = 0.003 and P = 0.002). Conclusion: Cholesterol increase is a potential predictor for temsirolimus efficacy. Longer survival in patients treated with temsirolimus was observed in those with larger increases in cholesterol. Prospectively designed biomarker studies of temsirolimus or other mTOR inhibitors are recommended. Clin Cancer Res; 18(11); 3188–96. ©2012 AACR.

Meningococcal carriage in adolescents in the United Kingdom to inform timing of an adolescent vaccination strategy.

OBJECTIVESnRecent development of serogroup B meningococcal (MenB) vaccines highlights the importance of pharyngeal carriage data, particularly in adolescents and young adults, to inform implementation strategies. We describe current UK carriage prevalence in this high risk population and compare methods of carriage detection.nnnMETHODSnIn this multisite study, pharyngeal swabs were collected on 3-4 occasions over 6-12 months, from 1040 school and university students, aged 10-25 years. Meningococcal carriage was detected by standard culture combined with seroagglutination or PCR of cultured isolates, or by direct PCR from swab. The factor H binding protein (fHBP) variants present in meningococcal isolates were determined.nnnRESULTSnMeningococcal serogroups B and Y were most common, with carriage up to 6.5% and 5.5% respectively, increasing throughout adolescence. Identification by seroagglutination was often unreliable, and the sensitivity of direct PCR detection was 66% compared to culture combined with PCR. Of MenB isolates, 89.1% had subfamily A variants of fHBP. The acquisition rate of MenB carriage was estimated at 2.8 per 1000 person-months.nnnCONCLUSIONSnIf vaccination is to precede the adolescent rise in MenB carriage, these data suggest it should take place in early adolescence. Studies assessing vaccine impact should use molecular methods to detect carriage.

Comparative evaluation of quetiapine plus lamotrigine combination versus quetiapine monotherapy (and folic acid versus placebo) in bipolar depression (CEQUEL): a 2 × 2 factorial randomised trial

BACKGROUNDnDepressive symptoms are a major cause of disability in bipolar disorder and there are few safe and effective treatments. The combination of lamotrigine plus quetiapine potentially offers improved outcomes for people with bipolar depression. We aimed to determine if combination therapy with quetiapine plus lamotrigine leads to greater improvement in depressive symptoms over 12 weeks than quetiapine monotherapy plus lamotrigine placebo.nnnMETHODSnIn this double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, parallel group, 2u2008×u20082 factorial trial (CEQUEL), patients with DSM-IV bipolar disorder I or II, who were aged 16 years or older, and required new treatment for a depressive episode, were enrolled from 27 sites in the UK. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) by an adaptive minimisation algorithm to lamotrigine or placebo and to folic acid or placebo. Participants and investigators were masked to the treatment groups. The primary outcome was improvement in depressive symptoms at 12 weeks with the Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology-self report version 16 (QIDS-SR16). Analysis was by modified intention-to-treat. This trial is registered with EUdraCT, number 2007-004513-33.nnnFINDINGSnBetween Oct 21, 2008, and April 27, 2012, 202 participants were randomly assigned; 101 to lamotrigine and 101 to placebo. The mean difference in QIDS-SR16 total score between the group receiving lamotrigine versus the placebo group at 12 weeks was -1·73 ([95% CI -3·57 to 0·11]; p=0·066) and at 52 weeks was -2·69 ([-4·89 to -0·49]; p=0·017). Folic acid was not superior to placebo. There was a significant interaction (p=0·028), with folic acid reducing the effectiveness of lamotrigine at 12 weeks. The mean difference on QIDS-SR16 was -4·14 ([95% CI -6·90 to -1·37]; p=0·004) for patients receiving lamotrigine without folic acid compared with 0·12 ([-2·58 to 2·82]; p=0·931) for those receiving lamotrigine and folic acid.nnnINTERPRETATIONnAddition of lamotrigine to quetiapine treatment improved outcomes. Folic acid seems to nullify the effect of lamotrigine. CEQUEL should encourage clinicians and patients to consider lamotrigine for bipolar depression, but also to be aware that concurrent folic acid might reduce its effectiveness.nnnFUNDINGnMedical Research Council.

Persistence of bactericidal antibodies to 5 years of age after immunization with serogroup B meningococcal vaccines at 6, 8, 12 and 40 months of age.

Background: A serogroup B meningococcal vaccine (4CMenB) has been licensed by the European commission for use in various infant schedules. However, data are limited on persistence of serum bactericidal antibodies (SBA), which is necessary to inform cost-effectiveness analysis. Methods: Sera were obtained from 3 groups of 5-year-old children previously immunized at 6, 8, 12 and 40 months with either 4CMenB or rMenB (which lacks the outer membrane vesicle of 4CMenB) or at 40 and 42 months with 4CMenB only. Forty-nine control children were also recruited and blood obtained before and after 2 doses of 4CMenB at 60 and 62 months of age. Sera were tested for SBA to meningococcal B reference strains. Results: At 5 years of age, 67% of those receiving 4CMenB in infancy had SBA titers ≥1:4 for strain 44/76, 100% for 5/99, 17% for NZ98/254 and 45% for M10713. Results for rMenB recipients varied from 0 (NZ98/254) to 100% (5/99). Of those immunized with 4CMenB at 40 and 42 months, 38% had SBA titers ≥1:4 at age 5 for 44/76, 100% for 5/99, 0% (NZ98/254) and 83% (M10713). Among controls, SBA titers were ≥1:4 in 4% (H44/76, 5/99), 0% (NZ98/254) and 67% (M10713) at baseline, increasing to 100% (H44/76 and 5/99), 89% (NZ98/254) and 97% (M10713) postimmunization. Conclusion: The variable rates of waning of antibody to the 4 components of 4CMenB complicates estimates of duration of protection and should be taken into account in cost-effectiveness analyses. A 2-dose schedule of 4CMenB in 5-year-old children was immunogenic.

Non-specific immunological effects of selected routine childhood immunisations: systematic review

Objective To identify and characterise non-specific immunological effects after routine childhood vaccines against BCG, measles, diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus. Design Systematic review of randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, and case-control studies. Data sources Embase, PubMed, Cochrane library, and Trip searched between 1947 and January 2014. Publications submitted by a panel of experts in the specialty were also included. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies All human studies reporting non-specific immunological effects after vaccination with standard childhood immunisations. Studies using recombinant vaccines, no vaccine at all, or reporting only vaccine specific outcomes were excluded. The primary aim was to systematically identify, assemble, and review all available studies and data on the possible non-specific or heterologous immunological effects of BCG; measles; mumps, measles, and rubella (MMR); diphtheria; tetanus; and pertussis vaccines. Results The initial search yielded 11u2009168 references; 77 manuscripts met the inclusion criteria for data analysis. In most included studies (48%) BCG was the vaccine intervention. The final time point of outcome measurement was primarily performed (70%) between one and 12 months after vaccination. There was a high risk of bias in the included studies, with no single study rated low risk across all assessment criteria. A total of 143 different immunological variables were reported, which, in conjunction with differences in measurement units and summary statistics, created a high number of combinations thus precluding any meta-analysis. Studies that compared BCG vaccinated with unvaccinated groups showed a trend towards increased IFN-γ production in vitro in the vaccinated groups. Increases were also observed for IFN-γ measured after BCG vaccination in response to in vitro stimulation with microbial antigens from Candida albicans, tetanus toxoid, Staphylococcus aureas, lipopolysaccharide, and hepatitis B. Cohort studies of measles vaccination showed an increase in lymphoproliferation to microbial antigens from tetanus toxoid and C albicans. Increases in immunogenicity to heterologous antigens were noted after diphtheria-tetanus (herpes simplex virus and polio antibody titres) and diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (pneumococcus serotype 14 and polio neutralising responses) vaccination. Conclusions The papers reporting non-specific immunological effects had heterogeneous study designs and could not be conventionally meta-analysed, providing a low level of evidence quality. Some studies, such as BCG vaccine studies examining in vitro IFN-γ responses and measles vaccine studies examining lymphoproliferation to microbial antigen stimulation, showed a consistent direction of effect suggestive of non-specific immunological effects. The quality of the evidence, however, does not provide confidence in the nature, magnitude, or timing of non-specific immunological effects after vaccination with BCG, diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, or measles containing vaccines nor the clinical importance of the findings.

Persistence of Bactericidal Antibodies After Infant Serogroup B Meningococcal Immunization and Booster Dose Response at 12, 18 or 24 Months of Age.

Background: A serogroup B meningococcal vaccine (4CMenB) is licensed for infant use in countries including Canada, Australia and those of the European Union. Data on serum bactericidal antibody (hSBA) waning and the ideal timing of a “toddler” booster dose are essential to optimize vaccine utilization. Methods: An open-labeled, multicenter phase-2b follow-on European study conducted from 2009 to 2012. Participants previously receiving 4CMenB with routine vaccines at 2, 4 and 6 or 2, 3 and 4 months (246Con and 234Con) or at 2, 4 and 6 months intercalated with routine vaccines (246Int) received a booster dose at 12, 18 or 24 months. 4CMenB-naïve “Control” participants aged 12, 18 or 24 months received 2 doses of 4CMenB 2 months apart. Results: One thousand five hundred eighty-eight participants were recruited. At 12 months, before any booster doses, the proportions with hSBA titers ≥1:5 for strain 44/76-SL (testing vaccine component fHBP) were 73% (120/165) for the “246Con” group, 85% (125/147) for “246Int,” 57% (51/90) for “234Con” and 13% (26/199) for Controls. For strain 5/99 (NadA) proportions were ≥96% (all 4CMenB-recipients) and 1% (Controls). For strain NZ98/254 (PorA), these were 18–35% (4CMenB-recipients) and 1% (Controls). By 24 months, 4CMenB-recipient proportions were 13–22% (44/76-SL), 82–94% (5/99) and 7–13% (NZ98/254) and in controls ⩽4%. After a 12-month booster-dose, ≥95% of previously immunized participants had titers ≥1:5 (all strains). Conclusions: A 4CMenB booster-dose can overcome waning hSBA titers after early-infant immunization. Administration at 12 months could help to maintain immunity during an age of high risk, and the persistence of this response requires further study.