Michael B. Devereux

Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market

Abstract This paper develops a general equilibrium exchange rate model consistent with the weak empirical evidence supporting the law of one price. Some firms segment markets by country, and set prices in local currency of sale, a practice we refer to as pricing-to-market (PTM). The presence of PTM increases exchange rate volatility, relative to a situation where the law of one price holds. PTM also affects the international transmission of monetary and fiscal policy. The higher is the degree of PTM, the lower is the comovement in consumption across countries, but the higher is the comovement in output. In terms of welfare, monetary policy is a “beggar-thy-neighbor” instrument in the presence of a high degree of PTM.

Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting and Exchange Rate Flexibility

This paper develops a welfare-based model of monetary policy in an open economy. We focus on the extent to which monetary policy should be employed in maintaining the exchange rate. The traditional approach maintains that exchange rate flexibility is desirable in the presence of real country-specific shocks that require adjustment in relative prices. However, in the light of empirical evidence on nominal price response to exchange-rate changes - specifically, that there appears to be a large degree of local-currency pricing in industrialized countries - the expenditure-switching role played by nominal exchange rates may be exaggerated in the traditional literature. In the presence of local-currency pricing, we find that optimal monetary policy in response to real shocks pricing is fully consistent with fixed exchange rates. On the other hand, when real country-specific shocks are not important, and when a countrys monetary sector is stable, the case for freely floating rates (a monetary policy in which exchange rates are not a consideration) is strengthened in the presence of local-currency pricing.

The exchange rate in a model of pricing-to-market

Abstract Much recent evidence suggests that exchange rate movements have very little effect on prices of traded goods. This paper presents some fresh evidence on this phenomenon, and develops a general equilibrium model consistent with the non-response of prices to exchange rate movements that are generated by money shocks. In the model some firms engage in pricing-to-market (PTM) across countries. The main question addressed is the degree to which PTM itself affects the behaviour of the exchange rate. It is shown that the presence of pricing-to-market combined with sticky local-currency nominal prices magnifies the response of the exchange rate to money shocks, and that the degree of exchange rate variability may be increased considerably relative to a model where the law of one price holds continuously.

Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies

This paper investigates the effects of exchange rate regimes and alternative monetary policy rules for an emerging market economy that is subject to a volatile external environment in the form of shocks to world interest rates and the terms of trade. In particular, we highlight the impact of financial frictions and the degree of exchange rate pass through in determining the relative performance of alternative regimes in stablizing the economy in the face of external shocks. Our results are quite sharp. When exchange rate pass-through is high, a policy of non-traded goods inflation targeting does best in stablizing the economy, and is better in welfare terms. When exchange rate pass-through is low, however, a policy of strict CPI inflation targeting is better. In all cases, a fixed exchange rate is undesirable. In addition, financial frictions have no implications for the ranking of alternative policy rules.

INTERNATIONAL RISK SHARING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

International risk-sharing which diversifies away income risk will reduced saving, with constant relative risk aversion. It growth arises from the external effects of human capital accumulation then reducing saving will reduced growth. Welfare also may fall with risk-sharing, because endogenous growth with external effects of capital accumulation typically implies a competitive equilibrium growth rate already less than the optimal growth rate. We demonstrate these results in standard, representative-agent and overlapping-generations economies. In the same economies diversifying away rate-of-return risk also will reduce saving and growth rates if relative risk aversion exceeds one.

Monopolistic Competition, Increasing Returns, and the Effects of Government Spending

The dynamic effects of government spending are considered in a general equilibrium model with monopolistic competition and increasing returns. In the economy, changes in the level of government spending endogenously raise total factor productivity, even though the spending itself is entirely wasteful. This leads to several results which contrast with the effects of government spending policies in environments with constant returns. A permanent increase in government spending increases the steady-state wage and may increase steady-state consumption. Also, regardless of its persistence, a temporary shock to government spending may simultaneously raise output, investment, the real wage, and consumption. Copyright 1996 by Ohio State University Press.

Realistic cross-country consumption correlations in a two-country, equilibrium, business cycle model

A well-known feature of one-good, multi-agent, Arrow-Debreu economies with identical additively-separable, homothetic preferences is that the consumptions of all agents are perfectly correlated. Such economies are widely used in interpreting business cycles but seem to be inconsistent with observed cross-country correlations of aggregate consumption. This paper provides an example of a two-country real business cycle model in which preferences are not separable between consumptions and labor supply. The model has a simple closed-form solution, and allows for fluctuations in labor supply in equilibrium. Moreover, it generates correlations between national consumption rates which are close to some of those observed in historical data.

Solving for Country Portfolios in Open Economy Macro Models

This paper presents a general approximation method for characterizing time-varying equilibrium portfolios in a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model. the method can be easily adapted to most dynamic general equilibrium models, it applies to environments in which markets are complete or incomplete, and it can be used for models of any dimension. Moreover, the approximation provides simple, easily interpretable closed form solutions for the dynamics of equilibrium portfolios.

Country Portfolio Dynamics

This paper presents a general approximation method for characterizing time-varying equilibrium portfolios in a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model. the method can be easily adapted to most dynamic general equilibrium models, it applies to environments in which markets are complete or incomplete, and it can be used for models of any dimension. Moreover, the approximation provides simple, easily interpretable closed form solutions for the dynamics of equilibrium portfolios.

The Effects of Factor Taxation in a Two-Sector Model of Endogenous Growth

This paper examines the effects of taxation in a two-sector model of endogenous growth, based on the joint accumulation of physical and human capital. Both transitional dynamics and balanced growth paths are computed, and the response to wage taxes, capital taxes, and consumption taxes is explored. Welfare costs of alternative tax regimes are computed. The capital tax is by far the least efficient method of generating revenue. The differences between taxes with respect to their effects on long-run growth rates are relatively unimportant. The key difference between the capital tax and wage or consumption taxes lies in their different level effects on the permanent paths of output, consumption, and labour supply.