Michael B. Robblee

Florida Bay: A history of recent ecological changes

Florida Bay is a unique subtropical estuary at the southern tip of the Florida peninsula. Recent ecological changes (seagrass die-off, algal blooms, increased turbidity) to the Florida Bay ecosystem have focused the attention of the public, commercial interests, scientists, and resource managers on the factors influencing the structure and function of Florida Bay. Restoring Florida Bay to some historic condition is the goal of resource managers, but what is not clear is what an anthropogenically-unaltered Florida Bay would look like. While there is general consensus that human activities have contributed to the changes occurring in the Florida Bay ecosystem, a high degree of natural system variability has made elucidation of the links between human activity and Florida Bay dynamics difficult. Paleoecological analyses, examination of long-term datasets, and directed measurements of aspects of the ecology of Florida Bay all contribute to our understanding of the behavior of the bay, and allow quantification of the magnitude of the recent ecological changes with respect to historical variability of the system.

Mangroves, Hurricanes, and Lightning Strikes

mangrove forests, surprisingly little quantitative information exists concerning hurricane impact on forest structure, succession, species composition, and dynamics of mangrovedependent fauna or on rates of ecosystem recovery (see Craighead and Gilbert 1962, Roth 1992, Smith 1992, Smith and Duke 1987, Stoddart 1969). After Hurricane Andrews passage across south Florida, we assessed the environmental damage to the natural resources of the Ever-

Influence of net freshwater supply on salinity in Florida Bay

An annual water budget for Florida Bay, the large, seasonally hypersaline estuary in the Everglades National Park, was constructed using physically based models and long-term (31 years) data on salinity, hydrology, and climate. Effects of seasonal and interannual variations of the net freshwater supply (runoff plus rainfall minus evaporation) on salinity variation within the bay were also examined. Particular attention was paid to the effects of runoff, which are the focus of ambitious plans to restore and conserve the Florida Bay ecosystem. From 1965 to 1995 the annual runoff from the Everglades into the bay was less than one tenth of the annual direct rainfall onto the bay, while estimated annual evaporation slightly exceeded annual rainfall. The average net freshwater supply to the bay over a year was thus approximately zero, and interannual variations in salinity appeared to be affected primarily by interannual fluctuations in rainfall. At the annual scale, runoff apparently had little effect on the bay as a whole during this period. On a seasonal basis, variations in rainfall, evaporation, and runoff were not in phase, and the net freshwater supply to the bay varied between positive and negative values, contributing to a strong seasonal pattern in salinity, especially in regions of the bay relatively isolated from exchanges with the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean. Changes in runoff could have a greater effect on salinity in the bay if the seasonal patterns of rainfall and evaporation and the timing of the runoff are considered. One model was also used to simulate spatial and temporal patterns of salinity responses expected to result from changes in net freshwater supply. Simulations in which runoff was increased by a factor of 2 (but with no change in spatial pattern) indicated that increased runoff will lower salinity values in eastern Florida Bay, increase the variability of salinity in the South Region, but have little effect on salinity in the Central and West Regions.

HURRICANE ANDREW'S EFFECTS ON MARINE RESOURCES

James T. Tilmant is a chief scientist with the National Park Service, Glacier National Park, West Glacier, MT 59936. Richard W. Curry is the science coordinator at Biscayne National Park, Homestead, FL 33030. Ronald Jones is an associate professor and director of the southeast environmental research program at Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199. Alina Szmant is an associate professor of marine biology and fisheries in the Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149. Harold Wanless is a professor of geology at the University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149. Joseph C. Zieman is a professor of environmental sciences at the

Dynamics of pink shrimp (Farfantepenaeus duorarum) recruitment potential in relation to salinity and temperature in Florida Bay

Progress is reported in relating upstream water management and freshwater flow to Florida Bay to a valuable commercial fishery for pink shrimp (Farfantepenaeus duorarum), which has major nursery grounds in Florida Bay. Changes in freshwater inflow are expected to affect salinity patterns in the bay, so the effect of salinity and temperature on the growth, survival, and subsequent recruitment and harvest of this ecologically and economically important species was examined with laboratory experiments and a simulation model. Experiments were conducted to determine the response of juvenile growth and survival to temperature (15°C to 33°C) and salinity (2‰ to 55‰), and results were used to refine an existing model. Results of these experiments indicated that juvenile pink shrimp have a broad salinity tolerance range at their optimal temperature, but the salinity tolerance range narrows with distance from the optimal temperature range, 20–30°C. Acclimation improved survival at extreme high salinity (55‰), but not at extremely low salinity (i.e., 5‰, 10‰). Growth rate increases with temperature until tolerance is exceeded beyond about 35°C. Growth is optimal in the mid-range of salinity (30‰) and decreases as salinity increases or decreases. Potential recruitment and harvests from regions of Florida bay were simulated based on local observed daily temperature and salinity. The simulations predict that potential harvests might differ among years, seasons, and regions of the bay solely on the basis of observed temperature and salinity. Regional differences in other characteristics, such as seagrass cover and tidal transport, may magnify regional differences in potential harvests. The model predicts higher catch rates in the September–December fishery, originating from the April and July settlement cohorts, than in the January–June fishery, originating from the October and January settlement cohorts. The observed density of juveniles in western Florida Bay during the same years simulated by the model was greater in the fall than the spring, supporting modeling results. The observed catch rate in the fishery, a rough index of abundance, was higher in the January–June fishery than the July–December fishery in most of the biological years from 1989–1990 through 1997–1998, contrary to modeling results and observed juvenile density in western Florida Bay.

Environmental influences on potential recruitment of pink shrimp, Farfantepenaeus duorarum, from Florida Bay nursery grounds

Two modeling approaches were used to explore the basis for variation in recruitment of pink shrimp,Farfantepenaeus duorarum, to the Tortugas fishing grounds. Emphasis was on development and juvenile densities on the nursery grounds. An exploratory simulation modeling exercise demonstrated large year-to-year variations in recruitment contributions to the Tortugas pink shrimp fishery may occur on some nursery grounds, and production may differ considerably among nursery grounds within the same year, simply on the basis of differences in temperature and salinity. We used a growth and survival model to simulate cumulative harvests from a July-centered cohort of early-settlementstage postlarvae from two parts of Florida Bay (western Florida Bay and northcentral Florida Bay), using historic temperature and salinity data from these areas. Very large year-to-year differences in simulated cumulative harvests were found for recruits from Whipray Basin. Year-to-year differences in simulated harvests of recruits from Johnson Key Basin were much smaller. In a complementary activity, generalized linear and additive models and intermittent, historic density records were used to develop an uninterrupted multi-year time series of monthly density estimates for juvenile pink shrimp in the Johnson Key Basin. The developed data series was based on relationships of density with environmental variables. The strongest relationship was with sea-surface temperature. Three other environmental variables (rainfall, water level at Everglades National Park Well P35, and mean wind speed) also contributed significantly to explaining variation in juvenile densities. Results of the simulation model and two of the three statistical models yielded similar interannual patterns for Johnson Key Basin. While it is not possible to say that one result validates the other, the concordance of the annual patterns from the two models is supportive of both approaches.

Field Observations on Selective Tidal-Stream Transport for Postlarval and Juvenile Pink Shrimp in Florida Bay

Abstract Postlarvae and juveniles of pink shrimp were collected in the summers of 2005 and 2006 at three stations in northwestern Florida Bay, the main nursery ground of this species in South Florida. Collections were made at one- or two-hour intervals during three full moon nights and two new moon nights at depth intervals in the water column. Results of the five collections were consistent with the assumption that postlarvae use a flood-tide transport (FTT) to advance into the estuary by ascending in the water column during the dark-flood tide and resting near the bottom during the ebb tide. Evidence of a FTT were higher numbers of postlarvae per hour collected during the flood tide vs. ebb tide and the large number of postlarvae collected with highest velocity flood tide currents. ANOVA indicated significant differences in the number of postlarvae collected between tidal stages and moon phases, but not among depths. Postlarvae were more abundant during new moon than full moon. We also found different patterns of postlarval distribution between the new and full moon. During the new moon, a large peak of postlarvae occurred coincident with highest current speeds, whereas, with one exception, during the full moon postlarvae were more abundant in the second half of the flood period near the slack tide. In contrast, juveniles exhibited a behavior and migratory pattern opposite to that of postlarvae. ANOVA indicated significant differences between the number of juveniles captured between tidal stages and among depths, but not between moon phases. Juveniles were found almost exclusively near the surface on the ebb tide. Significantly larger juveniles were captured on the dark-ebb rather than on the dark-flood tide during both moon phases, suggesting that older juveniles were leaving the Bay on the ebb tide.

Using self-organizing maps to determine observation threshold limit predictions in highly variant data

A significant data quality challenge for highly variant systems surrounds the limited ability to quantify operationally reasonable limits on the data elements being collected and provide reasonable threshold predictions. In many instances, the number of influences that drive a resulting value or operational range is too large to enable physical sampling for each influencer, or is too complicated to accurately model in an explicit simulation. An alternative method to determine reasonable observation thresholds is to employ an automation algorithm that would emulate a human analyst visually inspecting data for limits. Using the visualization technique of self-organizing maps (SOM) on data having poorly understood relationships, a methodology for determining threshold limits was developed. To illustrate this approach, analysis of environmental influences that drive the abundance of a target indicator species (the pink shrimp, Farfantepenaeus duorarum) provided a real example of applicability. The relationship between salinity and temperature and abundance of F. duorarum is well documented, but the effect of changes in water quality upstream on pink shrimp abundance is not well understood. The highly variant nature surrounding catch of a specific number of organisms in the wild, and the data available from up-stream hydrology measures for salinity and temperature, made this an ideal candidate for the approach to provide a determination about the influence of changes in hydrology on populations of organisms.