Michael Bracher

Economic Independence and Union Formation in Sweden

Although sociologists, demographers, and economists are generally agreed that economic independence enhances the likelihood that men will marry, there is disagreement concerning its effect on women. The view that economic independence weakens womens incentive to marry has probably been the most influential, although it has been subjected to few rigorous empirical tests with individual-level data. In the present paper we examine the predictors of forming a first cohabiting union, of progressing from this union to marriage, and of marrying without previously cohabiting by applying hazard regression to event-history data from the 1992 Swedish Family Survey, supplemented by earnings data extracted from the national taxation register. We test a battery of measures that reflect peoples past, current, and potential attachment to the labour market. We find that the correlates of union formation for women are largely indistinguishable from the correlates of union formation for men, and that far from being less l...

Correlates of hysterectomy in Australia

With around one in five women undergoing hysterectomy by the age of 50, the prevalence of hysterectomy in Australia is greater than in Europe but less than in the United States. In this paper, data from a nationally representative sample survey of 2547 Australian women aged 20-59 years are employed to identify correlates of hysterectomy and tubal sterilization over the last 30 years. Physiological, socio-economic and supply-side factors all influence the propensity to undergo hysterectomy, and a comparison with the correlates of tubal sterilization reveals parallels and contrasts between the determinants of the two operations. Age and parity are important predictors of hysterectomy. In addition, use of oral contraceptives for at least five years reduces the risk of hysterectomy, as do tubal sterilization, tertiary education and birthplace in Southern Europe. Conversely, risk increases after experiencing side effects with the IUD or repeated foetal losses, or after bearing a third child before the age of 25.

Child death and time to the next birth in Central Java

Summary Data from a two-year prospective study conducted in a rural area of Central Java are used to examine determinants of child mortality and fertility and the relation between the two. Maternal age and birth order were significant determinants of child mortality. While child mortality in turn strongly influenced the timing of the next birth, there is no evidence that the death of a child affected fertility through any but a physiological mechanism. In addition, the better educated have started to abandon traditional birth-spacing practices, and as a result were spacing their children more closely together than more traditional women.

Premature discontinuation of contraception in Australia.

Life-history data from a nationally representative survey of Australian women were used to examine discontinuation of contraceptive methods because of accidental pregnancy, side effects or dissatisfaction. The pill was the most successfully used method, with a first-year discontinuation rate of 10% for all three reasons. Side effects dominated the reasons for the premature discontinuation of both the pill and the IUD, while the reasons for discontinuing the condom stemmed equally from pregnancy and dissatisfaction with the method. Discontinuation of the diaphragm resulted largely from accidental pregnancy. Hazards models were used to identify the correlates of discontinuation of each method. Predictors of premature discontinuation reflect the availability of methods, physiological reactions to them and the social characteristics of their users. Discontinuation of the pill because of side effects or dissatisfaction was more likely among poorly educated women, non-Protestants and recent users, and less likely among teenagers. Discontinuation of the IUD was related entirely to physiological factors: Nulliparous women and users of unmedicated devices were at a greater risk than other women of accidental pregnancy, and nulliparous women were at greater risk of discontinuation associated with side effects. Nulliparous women were also more likely to discontinue the condom because of pregnancy, as were non-Protestants and the Australian-born.

Fertility desires and fertility outcomes.

Over the last 30 years Australian fertility rates have fallen more than could have been predicted from changes in the numbers of children desired by women when they first married. This paper charts changes in desired and completed fertility in Australia, matches originally desired fertility with that ultimately achieved and explores some factors which may affect the relation between fertility desires and fertility outcomes.

Do gravidity and age affect pregnancy outcome

Fetal loss has generally been found to vary with gravidity, previous experience of fetal loss, and maternal age, but the literature is divided on the reasons for these associations. In this paper we examine pregnancy histories obtained retrospectively from a nationally representative one-in-one-thousand sample of women in Australia aged 20 to 59 years. The relations of fetal loss ratios with both gravidity and previous outcome are consistent with heterogeneity of risk over the study population and a stopping rule, whereby high-risk women undertake more pregnancies than low-risk women to achieve the same number of live births. Evidence is presented that elevated loss ratios in the teens indicate not higher risk but a selection for short gestation intervals, while loss ratios beyond the mid-thirties do not point unequivocally to a substantial increase in risk at the older reproductive ages.

The Contemporary Marriage and Fertility Revolutions in the West the Explanations Provided by Australian Participants

SummaryThe last half century has witnessed both in Australia, and elsewhere in the West, first a “baby boom” (and marriage boom) and then a “baby bust” (and marriage bust). Economists, demographers, sociologists and social historians, especially in America, have developed theories to explain these phenomena.

Explaining first marriage trends in Australia.

As in other industrialized countries, marriage rates have fallen sharply in Australia over the last two decades. Most descriptions of Australian marriage trends date the beginning of the recent decline to the mid-1970s and suggest that marriage rates fell first among teenagers, next among people in their early twenties and, only lastly, among those in their late twenties. Most explanations invoke normative change as the primary determinant of the decline.This paper presents new estimates of Australian first marriage trends since the 1920s and then focuses on the recent period. Analysis of first marriage statistics shows that nuptiality decline actually began amongst the oldest potential marriers in the late 1960s, and then percolated down to the younger ages. An attempt to explain recent trends through Becker’s economic theory of marriage proves unsuccessful. Nevertheless, time-series regression analyses indicate that over the last twenty years first marriage rates in Australia have followed major movements in economic factors, in particular employment status, and that neither normative change nor the economic rationality postulated by the economic theory of marriage needs to be invoked as the primary determinant of changing nuptiality.