Michael Brklacich

Climate change and food security

Dynamic interactions between and within the biogeophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food, resulting in food systems that underpin food security. Food systems encompass food availability (production, distribution and exchange), food access (affordability, allocation and preference) and food utilization (nutritional and societal values and safety), so that food security is, therefore, diminished when food systems are stressed. Such stresses may be induced by a range of factors in addition to climate change and/or other agents of environmental change (e.g. conflict, HIV/AIDS) and may be particularly severe when these factors act in combination. Urbanization and globalization are causing rapid changes to food systems. Climate change may affect food systems in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production (e.g. changes in rainfall leading to drought or flooding, or warmer or cooler temperatures leading to changes in the length of growing season), to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. The relative importance of climate change for food security differs between regions. For example, in southern Africa, climate is among the most frequently cited drivers of food insecurity because it acts both as an underlying, ongoing issue and as a short-lived shock. The low ability to cope with shocks and to mitigate long-term stresses means that coping strategies that might be available in other regions are unavailable or inappropriate. In other regions, though, such as parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India, other drivers, such as labour issues and the availability and quality of ground water for irrigation, rank higher than the direct effects of climate change as factors influencing food security. Because of the multiple socio-economic and bio-physical factors affecting food systems and hence food security, the capacity to adapt food systems to reduce their vulnerability to climate change is not uniform. Improved systems of food production, food distribution and economic access may all contribute to food systems adapted to cope with climate change, but in adopting such changes it will be important to ensure that they contribute to sustainability. Agriculture is a major contributor of the greenhouse gases methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), so that regionally derived policies promoting adapted food systems need to mitigate further climate change.

Review and appraisal of concept of sustainable food production systems

Environmental degradation, competition for resources, increasing food demands, and the integration of agriculture into the international economy threaten the sustainability of many food production systems. Despite these concerns, the concept of sustainable food production systems remains unclear, and recent attempts to appraise sustainability have been hampered by conceptual inconsistencies and the absence of workable definitions. Six perspectives are shown to underpin the concept. Environmental accounting identifies biophysical limits for agriculture. Sustained yield refers to output levels that can be maintained continuously. Carrying capacity defines maximum population levels that can be supported in perpetuity. Production unit viability refers to the capacity of primary producers to remain in agriculture. Product supply and security focuses on the adequacy of food supplies. Equity is concerned with the spatial and temporal distribution of products dervied from resource use. Many studies into sustainable agriculture cover more than one of these perspectives, indicating the concept is complex and embraces issues relating to the biophysical, social, and economic environments. Clarification of the concept would facilitate the development of frameworks and analytical systems for appraising the sustainability of food production systems.

Implications of changes in climatic averages and variability on food production opportunities in Ontario, Canada

This paper explores the implications of changes in climatic averages and a range in precipitation levels on food production opportunities at the farm, regional and provincial levels for the province of Ontario. A doubling in atmospheric CO2 or its equivalent would contribute to extended frost-free seasons throughout Ontario, and possibly increase year-to-year variability in precipitation. At the farm level, these changes imply greater fluctuations in annual farm profits. The benefits of longer frost-free seasons would be impaired during years with relatively low precipitation, and under these conditions, the security of the provinces food supply would be at risk.

Assessing implications of soil erosion for future food production: a Canadian example

Abstract This paper extends conventional research on soil erosion and its effects on crop yields to assess the impact of soil erosion on long-term opportunities for regional food production. A framework to assess the implications of soil erosion on future food production prospects is developed and applied to a pilot study in southwestern Ontario, Canada. Initial findings suggest that soil erosion by itself would not have a substantial impact on the regional potential for food production, although erosion rates and yield responses to erosion would vary considerably throughout the region. The framework is offered as a means of integrating research on soil erosion and crop response with macroscale interest in socio-economic impacts and policy implications.

Opportunities and Barriers for Adaptation and Local Adaptation Planning in Canadian Rural and Resource-Based Communities

This chapter describes various forces that influence the ability of decision-making and institutional structures in Canadian rural and resource-dependent communities to manage, plan for, and respond to future risks and uncertainties resulting from climate change. The context within which such communities make decisions related to capacity building is the outcome of historical development trajectories, interactions with higher levels of government, and macro-level economic structures and processes. The success of future capacity building and planning will be strongly influenced by such factors as improved coordination across different levels of government, the provision of locally geared information about environmental and climate change, economic diversification and the ability to adjust to and take advantage of rapidly changing demographic patterns in such communities.

A geography-based critique of new US biofuels regulations

The new renewable fuels standard (RFS 2) aims to distinguish corn‐ethanol that achieves a 20% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared with gasoline. Field data from Kim et al. (2009) and from our own study suggest that geographic variability in the GHG emissions arising from corn production casts considerable doubt on the approach used in the RFS 2 to measure compliance with the 20% target. If regulators wish to require compliance of fuels with specific GHG emission reduction thresholds, then data from growing biomass should be disaggregated to a level that captures the level of variability in grain corn production and the application of life cycle assessment to biofuels should be modified to capture this variability.

Agricultural Adaptation to Changing Environments: Lessons Learned from Farmers in Eastern Ontario, Canada

Agriculture exists in dynamic environments where change is normal. All facets of agri-food systems are constantly exposed to these changes and, when necessary, make adjustments. This study builds on our growing understanding of farm-level adaptations in uncertain environments. It grapples with agriculture change in general and, more specifically, framing climatic change adaptation within the complex and dynamic environments that farmers negotiate on a daily basis. Engagement with the farming community was in conjunction with the Dundas County Federation of Agriculture, occurred during 2009–2013, and included the co-hosting of two focus group meetings plus the administration of 42 in-depth interviews. Many changes in Dundas County over the past 30 years mirror broader sectoral trends, including a decline in the number of farms (−40 %) coupled with increases in farm size (+61 %) and the age of farm operators (+14 %). One significant difference however is that farming continues to be the main economic activity in Dundas County with only a slight decline (−3 %) in the overall area devoted to farming. The continued strength of farming reflects the willingness and ability of farmers to embrace technological improvements as well as consolidate farm operations in order to manage costs and buffer uncertainties. Farmers are confident they can manage anticipated changes over the next two decades but are concerned with potential negative impacts associated with more government regulations and farm succession. Climate change, especially increases in the incidence of extreme events, is viewed as another but manageable uncertainty that will need to be factored into longer-term decisions.