Michael Budde

Drought Monitoring and Assessment: Remote Sensing and Modeling Approaches for the Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Abstract Drought monitoring is an essential component of drought risk management. It is usually carried out using drought indices/indicators that are continuous functions of rainfall and other hydrometeorological variables. This chapter presents a few examples of how remote sensing and hydrologic modeling techniques are being used to generate a suite of drought monitoring indicators at dekadal (10-day), monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales for several selected regions around the world. Satellite-based rainfall estimates are being used to produce drought indicators such as standardized precipitation index, dryness indicators, and start of season analysis. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index is being used to monitor vegetation condition. Several satellite data products are combined using agrohydrologic models to produce multiple short- and long-term indicators of droughts. All the data sets are being produced and updated in near-real time to provide information about the onset, progression, extent, and intensity of drought conditions. The data and products produced are available for download from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) data portal at http://earlywarning.usgs.gov . The availability of timely information and products support the decision-making processes in drought-related hazard assessment, monitoring, and management with the FEWS NET. The drought-hazard monitoring approach perfected by the U.S. Geological Survey for FEWS NET through the integration of satellite data and hydrologic modeling can form the basis for similar decision support systems. Such systems can operationally produce reliable and useful regional information that is relevant for local, district-level decision making.

Normalized difference vegetation index as an estimator for abundance and quality of avian herbivore forage in arctic Alaska

Tools that can monitor biomass and nutritional quality of forage plants are needed to understand how arctic herbivores may respond to the rapidly changing environment at high latitudes. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has been widely used to assess changes in abundance and distribution of terrestrial vegetative communities. However, the efficacy of NDVI to measure seasonal changes in biomass and nutritional quality of forage plants in the Arctic remains largely un-evaluated at landscape and fine-scale levels. We modeled the relationships between NDVI and seasonal changes in aboveground biomass and nitrogen concentration in halophytic graminoids, a key food source for arctic-nesting geese. The model was calibrated based on data collected at one site and validated using data from another site. Effects of spatial scale on model accuracy were determined by comparing model predictions between NDVI derived from moderate resolution (250 × 250 m pixels) satellite data and high resolution (20 cm diameter area) handheld spectrometer data. NDVI derived from the handheld spectrometer was a superior estimator (R2 ≥ 0.67) of seasonal changes in aboveground biomass compared to satellite-derived NDVI (R2 ≤ 0.40). The addition of temperature and precipitation variables to the model for biomass improved fit, but provided minor gains in predictive power beyond that of the NDVI-only model. This model, however, was only a moderately accurate estimator of biomass in an ecologically-similar halophytic graminoid wetland located 100 km away, indicating the necessity for site-specific validation. In contrast to assessments of biomass, satellite-derived NDVI was a better estimator for the timing of peak percent of nitrogen than NDVI derived from the handheld spectrometer. We confirmed that the date when NDVI reached 50% of its seasonal maximum was a reasonable approximation of the period of peak spring vegetative green-up and peak percent nitrogen. This study demonstrates the importance of matching the scale of NDVI measurements to the vegetation properties of biomass and nitrogen phenology.