Michael D. Doherty

Preparing for bushfires: understanding intentions

Purpose – To examine the relationship between behavioural intentions and preparing for bushfire hazards and to test the hypothesis that intentions can inform how people reason about their relationship with environmental hazards.Design/methodology/approach – Survey data were collected from 280 residents in high bushfire risk areas and analysed using multiple regression analysis. Semi‐structured interviews were conducted with a theoretical sample drawn from those who completed the survey. Data were analysed using grounded theory analysis strategies using the ATLAS.ti data analysis programme following the procedures for open, axial, and selective coding.Findings – The analyses demonstrated that preparedness intentions reflect the outcomes of different ways of reasoning about their relationship with bushfire hazards and that “preparing” and “not preparing” represent discrete processes. Each outcome was supported by different attitudes towards preparing and by different predictor variables.Research limitations...

Social vulnerability in the context of bushfire risk at the urban-bush interface in Sydney: A case study of the Blue Mountains and Ku-ring-gai local council areas

In the recent past, Australia has experienced several catastrophic hazard events and the frequency and intensity of such events is expected to increase in the future. Natural hazards can rarely be fully prevented, yet their losses can be minimized if the necessary preparedness and mitigation actions are taken before an event occurs. Identification of vulnerable groups is an important first step in any preparedness and emergency management planning process. Social vulnerability refers to population characteristics that influence the capacity of a community to prepare for, respond to and recover from disasters. Factors that contribute to social vulnerability are often hidden and difficult to capture. This study analyzes the relative levels of social vulnerability of communities at the urban–bush interface in the Blue Mountains and Ku-ring-gai local council areas in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. We tested whether a standardized social vulnerability index could be developed using a pre-existing set of indicators. We created an exploratory principle component analysis model using Australian Bureau of Statistics 2006 census data at the Census Collection District (CCD) level. We identified variables contributing to social vulnerability and used the component scores to develop a social vulnerability index. Finally, the social vulnerability index was mapped at the CCD level. Our results indicate that both contributors to and the level of social vulnerability differ between and within communities. In other words, they are spatially variable. They show different spatial patterns across the areas, which provides useful information for identifying communities that are most likely to experience negative disaster impacts due to their socio-demographic characteristics.

Biophysical mechanistic modelling quantifies the effects of plant traits on fire severity: species, not surface fuel loads, determine flame dimensions in eucalypt forests

The influence of plant traits on forest fire behaviour has evolutionary, ecological and management implications, but is poorly understood and frequently discounted. We use a process model to quantify that influence and provide validation in a diverse range of eucalypt forests burnt under varying conditions. Measured height of consumption was compared to heights predicted using a surface fuel fire behaviour model, then key aspects of our model were sequentially added to this with and without species-specific information. Our fully specified model had a mean absolute error 3.8 times smaller than the otherwise identical surface fuel model (p < 0.01), and correctly predicted the height of larger (≥1 m) flames 12 times more often (p < 0.001). We conclude that the primary endogenous drivers of fire severity are the species of plants present rather than the surface fuel load, and demonstrate the accuracy and versatility of the model for quantifying this.

Adaptation services and pathways for the management of temperate montane forests under transformational climate change

In regions prone to wildfire, a major driver of ecosystem change is increased frequency and intensity of fire events caused by a warming, drying climate. Uncertainty over the nature and extent of change creates challenges for how to manage ecosystems subject to altered structure and function under climate change. Using montane forests in south-eastern Australia as a case study, we addressed this issue by developing an ecosystem state-and-transition model based on a synthesis of expert knowledge and published data, with fire frequency and intensity as drivers. We then used four steps to determine future adaptation options: (1) estimation of changes in ecosystem services under each ecosystem state to identify adaptation services: the ecosystem processes and services that help people adapt to environmental change; (2) identification and sequencing of decision points to maintain each ecosystem state or allow transition to an alternative state; (3) analysis of interactions between societal values, scientific and management knowledge and institutional rules (vrk) required to reframe the decision context for future management, and (4) determining options for an adaptation pathway for management of montane forests under climate change. Our approach is transferable to other ecosystems for which alternative states can be predicted under climate change.

Seed viability of early maturing alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis subsp. delegatensis) in the Australian Alps, south-eastern Australia, and its implications for management under changing fire regimes

Eucalyptus delegatensis R.T. Baker subsp. delegatensis is an interval-sensitive, fire-killed eucalypt that dominates large tracts of montane forest in the Australian Alps. Although it has been widely accepted in forest management that E. delegatensis takes 20 years to flower and fruit after stand-replacing fire events, recent observations after high intensity fires in the Australian Alps have shown that early flowering and fruiting is occurring from what can be termed ‘precocious’ individuals in some areas. In some instances, early flowering and fruit set is occurring within 6 years after stand-replacing fire. One historical study in the Australian Capital Territory had noted that such seed was viable, but we found no reported experiments documenting this or detailing the degree of viability. Here we discuss the results of a germination experiment undertaken on seed collected from Namadgi National Park from early-maturing alpine ash trees. Although at the low end of known viability estimates for E. delegatensis, seed from these individuals was nonetheless found to be viable, with a mean of 455 (s.d. = 139) germinants per 10 g of chaff and seed mix. We discuss this result in relation to fire management in the Australian Alps and suggest further research that needs to be undertaken to better document and understand the phenomenon.