Michael E. Baldwin

Some Practical Considerations Regarding Horizontal Resolution in the First Generation of Operational Convection-Allowing NWP

Abstract During the 2005 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment two different high-resolution configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) model were used to produce 30-h forecasts 5 days a week for a total of 7 weeks. These configurations used the same physical parameterizations and the same input dataset for the initial and boundary conditions, differing primarily in their spatial resolution. The first set of runs used 4-km horizontal grid spacing with 35 vertical levels while the second used 2-km grid spacing and 51 vertical levels. Output from these daily forecasts is analyzed to assess the numerical forecast sensitivity to spatial resolution in the upper end of the convection-allowing range of grid spacing. The focus is on the central United States and the time period 18–30 h after model initialization. The analysis is based on a combination of visual comparison, systematic subjective verification conducted during the Spring Experiment, and objectiv...

Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing.

Severe thunderstorms comprise an extreme class of deep convective clouds and produce high-impact weather such as destructive surface winds, hail, and tornadoes. This study addresses the question of how severe thunderstorm frequency in the United States might change because of enhanced global radiative forcing associated with elevated greenhouse gas concentrations. We use global climate models and a high-resolution regional climate model to examine the larger-scale (or “environmental”) meteorological conditions that foster severe thunderstorm formation. Across this model suite, we find a net increase during the late 21st century in the number of days in which these severe thunderstorm environmental conditions (NDSEV) occur. Attributed primarily to increases in atmospheric water vapor within the planetary boundary layer, the largest increases in NDSEV are shown during the summer season, in proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastal regions. For example, this analysis suggests a future increase in NDSEV of 100% or more in locations such as Atlanta, GA, and New York, NY. Any direct application of these results to the frequency of actual storms also must consider the storm initiation.

Changes to the Operational ''Early'' Eta Analysis / Forecast System at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction

This note describes changes that have been made to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction ( NCEP ) operational ‘‘early’’ eta model. The changes are 1 ) an decrease in horizontal grid spacing from 80 to 48 km, 2 ) incorporation of a cloud prediction scheme, 3 ) replacement of the original static analysis system with a 12-h intermittent data assimilation system using the eta model, and 4 ) the use of satellite-sensed total column water data in the eta optimum interpolation analysis. When tested separately, each of the four changes improved model performance. A quantitative and subjective evaluation of the full upgrade package during March and April 1995 indicated that the 48-km eta model was more skillful than the operational 80-km model in predicting the intensity and movement of large-scale weather systems. In addition, the 48-km eta model was more skillful in predicting severe mesoscale precipitation events than either the 80-km eta model, the nested grid model, or the NCEP global spectral model during the March ‐ April 1995 period. The implementation of this new version of the operational early eta system was performed in October 1995.

Examination of Convection-Allowing Configurations of the WRF Model for the Prediction of Severe Convective Weather: The SPC/NSSL Spring Program 2004

Abstract Convection-allowing configurations of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model were evaluated during the 2004 Storm Prediction Center–National Severe Storms Laboratory Spring Program in a simulated severe weather forecasting environment. The utility of the WRF forecasts was assessed in two different ways. First, WRF output was used in the preparation of daily experimental human forecasts for severe weather. These forecasts were compared with corresponding predictions made without access to WRF data to provide a measure of the impact of the experimental data on the human decision-making process. Second, WRF output was compared directly with output from current operational forecast models. Results indicate that human forecasts showed a small, but measurable, improvement when forecasters had access to the high-resolution WRF output and, in the mean, the WRF output received higher ratings than the operational Eta Model on subjective performance measures related to convective initiation, evolutio...

The WGNE Assessment of Short-term Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts

Abstract Twenty-four-hour and 48-h quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from 11 operational numerical weather prediction models have been verified for a 4-yr period against rain gauge observations over the United States, Germany, and Australia to assess their skill in predicting the occurrence and amount of daily precipitation. Model QPFs had greater skill in winter than in summer, and greater skill in midlatitudes than in Tropics, where they performed only marginally better than “ persistence.” The best agreement among models, as well as the best ability to discriminate raining areas, occurred for a low rain threshold of 1–2 mm d−1. In contrast, the skill for forecasts of rain greater than 20 mm d−1 was generally quite low, reflecting the difficulty in predicting precisely when and where heavy rain will fall. The location errors for rain systems, determined using pattern matching with the observations, were typically about 100 km for 24-h forecasts, with smaller errors occurring for the heaviest r...

Implementation of the Cloud Prediction Scheme in the Eta Model at NCEP

Abstract An explicit cloud prediction scheme has been developed and incorporated into the Eta Model at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) to improve the cloud and precipitation forecasts. In this scheme, the cloud liquid water and cloud ice are explicitly predicted by adding only one prognostic equation of cloud mixing ratio to the model. Precipitation of rain and snow in this scheme is diagnostically calculated from the predicted cloud fields. The model-predicted clouds are also used in the model’s radiation calculations. Results from the parallel tests performed at NCEP show improvements in precipitation forecasts when prognostic cloud water is included. Compared with the diagnostic clouds, the model-predicted clouds are more accurate in both amount and position. Improvements in specific humidity forecasts have also been found, especially near the surface and above the freezing level.

Severe Thunderstorm Development in Relation to Along-Dryline Variability: A Case Study

Abstract Long-lived thunderstorms were initiated during the afternoon of 26 May 1991 ahead of a dryline in northwestern Oklahoma. Various reasons for initiation in this particular along-dryline location are investigated through analysis of observations collected during the Cooperative Oklahoma Profiler Studies—1991 field program. Observing systems included in situ and radar instrumentation aboard a research aircraft, soundings from mobile laboratories, a mesonetwork of surface stations, meteorological satellites, and operational networks of surface and upper-air stations. Elevated moistening east of the dryline revealed by soundings and aircraft observations in combination with thermal plume activity was apparently insufficient to promote sustained convection on this day without aid from an additional lifting mechanism. Satellite observations reveal scattered convection along the dryline by midafternoon and a convective cloud line intersecting the dryline at an angle in the area of most pronounced storm i...

Sensitivity of Several Performance Measures to Displacement Error, Bias, and Event Frequency

Abstract The sensitivity of various accuracy measures to displacement error, bias, and event frequency is analyzed for a simple hypothetical forecasting situation. Each measure is found to be sensitive to displacement error and bias, but probability of detection and threat score do not change as a function of event frequency. On the other hand, equitable threat score, true skill statistic, and odds ratio skill score behaved differently with changing event frequency. A newly devised measure, here called the bias-adjusted threat score, does not change with varying event frequency and is relatively insensitive to bias. Numerous plots are presented to allow users of these accuracy measures to make quantitative estimates of sensitivities that are relevant to their particular application.

Properties of the Convection Scheme in NCEP's Eta Model that Affect Forecast Sounding Interpretation

The impact of parameterized convection on Eta Model forecast soundings is examined. The Betts-Miller- Janjicparameterization used in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Eta Model introduces char- acteristic profiles of temperature and moisture in model soundings. These specified profiles can provide misleading representations of various vertical structures and can strongly affect model predictions of parameters that are used to forecast deep convection, such as convective available potential energy and convective inhibition. The specific procedures and tendencies of this parameterization are discussed, and guidelines for interpreting Eta Model soundings are presented.

The Melting Effect as a Factor in Precipitation-Type Forecasting

Abstract The process of atmospheric cooling due to melting precipitation is examined to evaluate its contribution to determining precipitation type. The “melting effect” is typically of second-order importance compared to other processes that influence the lower-tropospheric air temperature and hence the type of precipitation that reaches the ground. In some cases, however, cooling due to melting snowflakes can emerge as the dominant agent of temperature change, occasionally surprising forecasters (and the public) by inducing an unexpected changeover from rain to heavy snow. One such case occurred on 3–4 February 1998 in east-central Tennessee and surrounding areas. Commonly applied considerations for predicting precipitation type had convinced forecasters that significant snowfall was not likely with this event. However, real-time observations and a postevent analysis by forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center led to the hypothesis that the melting effect must have provided the cooling necessary to al...