Michael E. Drew

A Closer Look at the Size and Value Premium in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange

In this study of asset pricing in emerging markets, two questions are asked. First, Is there a size and value premium in markets outside the USA? Second, Can the multifactor model of Fama and French (1996) capture the cross–section of average stock returns for the Malaysian setting? The answers from this study suggest that size and value premium exist in markets outside the USA. We find that the two mimic portfolios, ‘small minus big’ (SMB) and ‘high minus low’ (HML), generate a return of 17.70% and 17.69% per annum, respectively, while the market generates a return of 1.92% per annum. Our findings suggest that the multi–factor model of Fama and French (1996) is a parsimonious representation of the risk factors for Malaysia, explaining returns in an economically meaningful manner. Our findings also reject the claim that the multifactor model results can be explained by the turn–of–the–year effect.

Beta, Firm Size, Book-to-Market Equity and Stock Returns

The capital asset pricing model (CAPM), which has dominated finance theory for over thirty years, is concerned with the relationship between risk and the expected return on risky assets. According to the CAPM the market beta alone is sufficient to explain security returns and that there is a positive expected premium for investing in beta risks. However, evidence shows that the single risk factor is not quite adequate for describing the cross-section of stock returns. The current consensus is that firm size and book-to-market equity factors are pervasive risk factors besides the overall market factor. In this paper we compare the explanatory power of a single index model with the multifactor asset-pricing model of Fama and French (1996) for Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia and the Philippines. Our findings suggest that the CAPM beta alone is not sufficient to describe the cross-section of expected returns. We also find that the absolute pricing errors of the CAPM are quite large when compared with the multifactor model of Fama and French (1996). Our findings show that firm size and book-to-market equity help explain the variation in average stock returns in a meaningful manner.

Dynamic Lifecycle Strategies for Target DateRetirement Funds

Lifecycle funds offered to retirement plan participants gradually reduce exposure to stocks as the funds approach the target date of the participants’ retirement.The authors show that such deterministic switching rules produce inferior wealth outcomes for the investor compared to strategies that dynamically alter the allocation between growth and conservative assets based on cumulative portfolio performance relative to a set target.The dynamic allocation strategies proposed in this article exhibit almost stochastic dominance over strategies that unidirectionally switch assets without consideration of portfolio performance.

Principal and Agent Problems in Superannuation Funds

No abstract available.

The appropriateness of default investment options in defined contribution plans: Australian evidence

For participants in defined contribution (DC) plans who refrain from exercising investment choice, plan contributions are invested following the default investment option of their respective plans. Since default investment options of different plans vary widely in terms of their benchmark asset allocation, the most important determinant of investment performance, participants enrolled in these options face significantly different wealth outcomes at retirement. This paper simulates the terminal wealth outcomes under different static asset allocation strategies to evaluate their relative appeal as default investment choice in DC plans. We find that strategies with low or moderate allocation to stocks are consistently outperformed in terms of upside potential of exceeding the participants wealth accumulation target at retirement as well as downside risk of falling below that target outcome by aggressive strategies whose allocation to stocks approach 100%. The risk of extremely adverse wealth outcomes for plan participants also does not appear to be very sensitive to asset allocation. Our evidence suggests the appropriateness of strategies heavily tilted towards stocks to be nominated as default investment options in DC plans unless plan providers emphasize predictability of wealth outcomes over adequacy of retirement wealth.

Returns from investing in Australian equity superannuation funds, 1991--1999

In this analysis of investment manager performance, two questions are addressed. First, do managers that actively trade stocks create value for investors? Second, can the multifactor model of Gruber capture the cross-section of average fund returns for the Australian setting? The answers from this study are as follows: as an industry, investment managers destroyed value for superannuation investors for the period 1991 through 1999, under-performing passive portfolio returns by 2.80–4.00 per cent per annum on a risk-unadjusted basis and 0.50–0.93 per cent per annum on a risk-adjusted basis. Evidence is provided in support of the four-factor model of Gruber; however, the model fails to capture the impact of investment style for the Australian setting. The findings suggest that Australian superannuation investors would transform their retirement savings into retirement income more efficiently through the use of passive alternatives to the stock selection problem.

Does Idiosyncratic Volatility Matter? New Zealand Evidence

Standard asset pricing models ignore idiosyncratic risk. In this study, we examine if idiosyncratic or unique risk affects returns for New Zealand stocks using the factor portfolio mimicking approach of Fama and French (1993, 1996). We find evidence of a negative relationship between firm size and a stocks idiosyncratic volatility. We also find that high idiosyncratic volatility firms have high betas and generate low earnings on book equity.

Hedge Fund Regulation and Systemic Risk

The global financial crisis (GFC) caused catastrophic losses in the highly regulated banking sector. In contrast, the largely unregulated global hedge fund industry navigated through the crisis relatively unscathed. As a consequence of the GFC, there is a tidal wave of opinion calling for reform of the global financial architecture, with a specific emphasis on tightened oversight of hedge funds. In this article, we consider the debate regarding the future of hedge fund regulation, building the case that regulatory reform to constrain excessive leverage must be applied in equal measure to all financial market participants, not just hedge funds. The challenge for regulators is to carefully craft a regime of transparency and disclosure that minimises the potential for systemic risk without jeopardising the financial innovation and entrepreneurship that are emblematic of the hedge fund sector.

The Impact of Fund Attrition on Superannuation Returns

This paper investigates the impact of fund attrition on returns from a sample of superannuation fund managers (specialising in the management of domestic stock portfolios) for the period 1991 through 1999, using a four-factor asset pricing model. Survivorship bias is estimated at 23 basis points per annum. The evidence presented in this study is consistent with recent international evidence that suggests that a sampling technique that excludes terminated funds would result in an overestimation of fund manager performance. Moreover, fund attrition has a material negative impact on the ability for superannuation fund members to obtain their retirement income objectives.

Establishing additionality: fraud vulnerabilities in the clean development mechanism

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to explore the clean development mechanism (CDM) which creates carbon credits from emission abatement projects in developing economies. The paper aims to examine the operation of the CDM with specific reference to fraud vulnerabilities regarding the additionality of a project. An examination of the process of establishment, certification and verification of additionality (confirmation that emissions post-implementation of the CDM project are lower than those that would have occurred under the most plausible alternative scenario) is used to highlight the need for particular vigilance in respect to sustaining and improving the integrity of future market-based mechanisms post-Kyoto. Design/methodology/approach - The study takes a case study approach, examining the CDM project cycle and associated key entities. Findings - The study posits that the processes associated with establishing and verifying additionality of a project are potentially key areas of systemic weakness that must be addressed. This case study explores the design features of the CDM that may afford greater opportunities for fraudulent or deceptive practices. Originality/value - The CDM takes a project-by-project approach to establishment, verification and certification of additionality. Whilst conceptually this design may be appropriate from an operational perspective, it potentially provides opportunities for fraudulent outcomes. The individualised approach is, by its very nature, highly resource-intensive and inherently difficult to verify.