Michael Ewens

Statistical Discrimination or Prejudice? A Large Sample Field Experiment

A model of racial discrimination provides testable implications for two features of statistical discriminators: differential treatment of signals by race and heterogeneous experience that shapes perception. We construct an experiment in the U.S. rental apartment market that distinguishes statistical discrimination from taste-based discrimination. Responses from over 14,000 rental inquiries with varying applicant quality show that landlords treat identical information from applicants with African American– and white-sounding names differently. This differential treatment varies by neighborhood racial composition and signal type in a manner consistent with statistical discrimination and in contrast to patterns predicted by a model of taste-based discrimination.

Managing Performance Signals Through Delay: Evidence from Venture Capital

This paper examines whether agency conflicts during venture capital (VC) fundraising impact investment behavior. Using novel investment-level decisions of VCs in the process of raising new funds, we find that venture capitalists take actions hidden from their investors, i.e. limited partners (LPs), that delay revealing negative information about VC fund performance until after a new fund is raised. After fundraising is complete, write-offs double and reinvestments in relatively worse off entrepreneurial firms increase. We find that these observations cannot be explained by strategic bundling of news or effort constraints due to the newly raised fund. Funds with both long and short fundraising track record exhibit this behavior and the delay is costly for fund investors (LPs). This strategic delay shows that fundraising incentives have real impacts on VC fund investment decisions, which are often difficult for LPs to observe.

Executive Replacement in Venture Capital-Backed Startups

We show that venture capitalists add value in struggling startups by replacing executives. Augmenting a large database of entrepreneurial firm executives with handcollected join/departure dates, we ...

The Evolution of the Private Equity Market and the Decline in IPOs

The deregulation of securities laws|in particular the National Securities Markets Improvement Act (NSMIA) of 1996|has increased the supply of private capital to late-stage private startups, which are now able to grow to a size that few private firms used to reach. NSMIA is one of a number of factors that have changed the going-public versus staying-private trade-off, helping bring about a new equilibrium where fewer startups go public, and those that do are older. This new equilibrium does not reflect an IPO market failure. Rather, founders are using their increased bargaining power vis-a-vis investors to stay private longer.

Founder Replacement and Startup Performance

We provide causal evidence that venture capitalists (VCs) improve the performance of their portfolio companies by replacing founders. Augmenting a database of U.S.-based, VC-backed startups from 1995-2008 with hand-collected information regarding turnover, we exploit shocks to the supply of outside executives via state-level changes in the enforceability of employee non-compete agreements. Although naive regressions of startup performance on founder replacement would suggest a negative correlation, this may be due to selection as founders are likely to leave or be pushed out of poorly-performing startups. Indeed, instrumented regressions reverse the sign of this effect, suggesting that replacing founders improves the performance of venture-backed entrepreneurial firms. Replacement helps more when founders hold CXO roles and when the incoming replacement has substantial work experience. The evidence points to the replacement of founders as a specific mechanism by which VCs add value.

Cost of Experimentation and the Evolution of Venture Capital

We study how technological shocks to the cost of starting new businesses have led the venture capital model to adapt in fundamental ways over the prior decade. We both document and provide a framework to understand the changes in the investment strategy of venture capitalists (VCs) in recent years — an increased prevalence of a “spray and pray” investment approach — where investors provide a little funding and limited governance to an increased number of startups that they are more likely to abandon, but where initial experiments significantly inform beliefs about the future potential of the venture. This adaptation and related entry by new financial intermediaries has led to a disproportionate rise in innovations where information on future prospects is revealed quickly and cheaply, and reduced the relative share of innovation in complex technologies where initial experiments cost more and reveal less.

Insider Financing and Venture Capital Returns

Staged financing of venture capital-backed firms is valuable to both investors and entrepreneurs, but comes with a potential cost: hold-up. With asymmetric information and strong control rights, financial intermediaries may earn rents on their inside knowledge. We find that environments where insiders have the significant potential to hold-up the entrepreneur -- financings where only previous investors participate -- have predictable outcomes and returns. However, in contrast to predictions from the theory of hold-up, we show that these inside financings lead to a higher likelihood of failure, lower probability of IPOs, and lower cash on cash multiples than rounds with new (outside) investors. Inside financings also appear to be negative NPV, suggesting that investors make inefficient continuation decisions. We propose a novel alternative and show how the findings are consistent with a manifestation of an agency problem driven by changing opportunity costs over the VC fund life-cycle.

The Consequences of Entrepreneurial Firm Founding on Innovation

This paper studies if and how individual-level patenting activity changes as an employee transitions to entrepreneurial firm founder. Using a large database of employment and innovative histories of over 1110 spinoff firm founders, the empirical strategy tracks both founders and her co-inventors who remain at her previous employer. There are significant changes in patenting focus and quality. Founders are relatively more likely to focus on fewer industry patent classes as the lead patent author, while citing their previous work less. Their patent quality increases after spinoff firm founding in several ways. Non-self citations received increase and the types of patent applications point to a move towards longer-term projects. Finally, we interpret a higher probability of producing a patent in both the right and the left tail of the quality distribution as suggestive evidence of the spinoff firm pursuing riskier projects.

Are Early Stage Investors Biased Against Women

We study whether early stage investors have gender biases using a proprietary data set from AngelList that allows us to observe private interactions between investors and fundraising startups. We find that male investors express less interest in female entrepreneurs compared to observably similar male entrepreneurs. In contrast, female investors express more interest in female entrepreneurs. These findings do not appear to be driven by within-gender screening/monitoring advantages or gender differences in risk preferences. Moreover, the male-led startups that male investors express interest in do not outperform the female-led startups they express interest in—they underperform. Overall, the evidence is consistent with gender biases.