Michael Foote

Phanerozoic trends in the global diversity of marine invertebrates.

It has previously been thought that there was a steep Cretaceous and Cenozoic radiation of marine invertebrates. This pattern can be replicated with a new data set of fossil occurrences representing 3.5 million specimens, but only when older analytical protocols are used. Moreover, analyses that employ sampling standardization and more robust counting methods show a modest rise in diversity with no clear trend after the mid-Cretaceous. Globally, locally, and at both high and low latitudes, diversity was less than twice as high in the Neogene as in the mid-Paleozoic. The ratio of global to local richness has changed little, and a latitudinal diversity gradient was present in the early Paleozoic.

Effects of sampling standardization on estimates of Phanerozoic marine diversification.

Global diversity curves reflect more than just the number of taxa that have existed through time: they also mirror variation in the nature of the fossil record and the way the record is reported. These sampling effects are best quantified by assembling and analyzing large numbers of locality-specific biotic inventories. Here, we introduce a new database of this kind for the Phanerozoic fossil record of marine invertebrates. We apply four substantially distinct analytical methods that estimate taxonomic diversity by quantifying and correcting for variation through time in the number and nature of inventories. Variation introduced by the use of two dramatically different counting protocols also is explored. We present sampling-standardized diversity estimates for two long intervals that sum to 300 Myr (Middle Ordovician-Carboniferous; Late Jurassic-Paleogene). Our new curves differ considerably from traditional, synoptic curves. For example, some of them imply unexpectedly low late Cretaceous and early Tertiary diversity levels. However, such factors as the current emphasis in the database on North America and Europe still obscure our view of the global history of marine biodiversity. These limitations will be addressed as the database and methods are refined.

Origination and extinction components of taxonomic diversity: general problems

Abstract Mathematical modeling of cladogenesis and fossil preservation is used to explore the expected behavior of commonly used measures of taxonomic diversity and taxonomic rates with respect to interval length, quality of preservation, position of interval in a stratigraphic succession, and taxonomic rates themselves. Particular attention is focused on the independent estimation of origination and extinction rates. Modeling supports intuitive and empirical arguments that single-interval taxa, being especially sensitive to variation in preservation and interval length, produce many undesirable distortions of the fossil record. It may generally be preferable to base diversity and rate measures on estimated numbers of taxa extant at single points in time rather than to adjust conventional interval-based measures by discarding single-interval taxa. A combination of modeling and empirical analysis of fossil genera supports two major trends in marine animal evolution. (1) The Phanerozoic decline in taxonomic rates is unlikely to be an artifact of secular improvement in the quality of the fossil record, a point that has been argued before on different grounds. (2) The post-Paleozoic rise in diversity may be exaggerated by the essentially complete knowledge of the living fauna, but this bias is not the principal cause of the pattern. The pattern may partly reflect a secular increase in preservation nevertheless. Apparent temporal variation in taxonomic rates can be produced artificially by variation in preservation rate. Some empirical arguments suggest, however, that much of the short-term variation in taxonomic rates observed in the fossil record is real. (1) For marine animals as a whole, the quality of the fossil record of a higher taxon is not a good predictor of its apparent variability in taxonomic rates. (2) For a sample data set covering a cross-section of higher taxa in the Ordovician, most of the apparent variation in origination and extinction rates is not statistically attributable to independently measured variation in preservation rates. (3) Previous work has shown that standardized sampling to remove effects of variable preservation and sampling yields abundant temporal variation in estimated taxonomic rates. While modeling suggests which rate measures are likely to be most accurate in principle, the question of how best to capture true variation in taxonomic rates remains open.

Biodiversity in the Phanerozoic: a reinterpretation

Abstract Many features of global diversity compilations have proven robust to continued sampling and taxonomic revision. Inherent biases in the stratigraphic record may nevertheless substantially affect estimates of global taxonomic diversity. Here we focus on short-term (epoch-level) changes in apparent diversity. We use a simple estimate of the amount of marine sedimentary rock available for sampling: the number of formations in the stratigraphic Lexicon of the United States Geological Survey. We find this to be positively correlated with two independent estimates of rock availability: global outcrop area derived from the Paleogeographic Atlas Project (University of Chicago) database, and percent continental flooding. Epoch-to-epoch changes in the number of formations are positively correlated with changes in sampled Phanerozoic marine diversity at the genus level. We agree with previous workers in finding evidence of a diversity-area effect that is substantially weaker than the effect of the amount of preserved sedimentary rock. Once the mutual correlation among change in formation numbers, in diversity, and in area flooded is taken into consideration, there is relatively little residual correlation between change in diversity and in the extent of continental flooding. These results suggest that much of the observed short-term variation in marine diversity may be an artifact of variation in the amount of rock available for study. Preliminary results suggest the same possibility for terrestrial data. Like the comparison between change in number of formations and change in sampled diversity, which addresses short-term variation in apparent diversity, the comparison between absolute values of these quantities, which relates to longer-term patterns, also shows a positive correlation. Moreover, there is no clear temporal trend in the residuals of the regression of sampled diversity on number of formations. This raises the possibility that taxonomic diversity may not have increased substantially since the early Paleozoic. Because of limitations in our data, however, this question must remain open.

Discordance and concordance between morphological and taxonomic diversity

Morphological and taxonomic diversity each provide insight into the expansion and contraction of major biological groups, while the nature of the relationship between these two aspects of diversity also has important implications for evolutionary mechanisms. In this paper, I compare morphological and taxonomic diversity within the classes Blastoidea and Trilobita, and within the trilobite clades Libristoma, Asaphina, Proetida, Phacopida, and Scutelluina. Blastoid morphology is quantified with homologous landmarks on the theca, and trilobite form is measured with a Fourier description of the cranidium. Morphological diversity is measured as the total variance among forms in morphological space (proportional to the mean squared distance among forms). Blastoid taxonomic diversity is based on published compilation of stratigraphic ranges of genera. The Zoological Record was used to determine the number of new species of trilobites described since the publication of the Treatise; temporal patterns in species richness are similar to those for generic richness based on the Treatise, suggesting a common underlying signal. Morphological variety and taxonomic richness often increase together during the initial diver- sification of a clade. This pattern is consistent with diffusion through morphospace, although some form of adaptive radiation cannot be ruled out. Morphological diversity varies little throughout much of the history of Proetida, a pattern that may suggest major constraints on the magnitude and direction of evolution, and that agrees with the perception of Proetida as a morphologically con- servative group. Two major patterns are seen during the decline of clades. In Blastoidea, Trilobita, Libristoma, and Asaphina, morphological diversity is maintained at substantial levels, and in fact continues to increase, even in the face of striking reductions in taxonomic richness. This pattern suggests continued diffusion through morphospace and taxonomic attrition that is effectively non- selective with respect to morphology. In Phacopida, Scutelluina, and to some extent in Proetida, morphological diversity decreases along with taxonomic diversity. This pattern suggests hetero- geneities such as elevated extinction and/or reduced origination in certain regions of morphospace. As found previously for the echinoderm subphylum Blastozoa, all studied clades of trilobites except Proetida show maximal morphological diversity in the Mid-Late Ordovician and maximal taxonomic diversity sometime during the Ordovician, suggesting some degree of common control on diver- sification patterns in these groups.

Fossil preservation and the stratigraphic ranges of taxa

The incompleteness of the fossil record hinders the inference of evolutionary rates and patterns. Here, we derive relationships among true taxonomic durations, preservation probability, and observed taxonomic ranges. We use these relationships to estimate original distributions of taxonomic durations, preservation probability, and completeness (proportion of taxa preserved), given only the observed ranges. No data on occurrences within the ranges of taxa are required. When preservation is random and the original distribution of durations is exponential, the inference of durations, preservability, and completeness is exact. However, reasonable approximations are possible given non-exponential duration distributions and temporal and taxonomic variation in preservability. Thus, the approaches we describe have great potential in studies of taphonomy, evolutionary rates and patterns, and genealogy. Analyses of Upper Cambrian-Lower Ordovician trilobite species, Paleozoic crinoid genera, Jurassic bivalve species, and Cenozoic mammal species yield the following results: (1) The preservation probability inferred from stratigraphic ranges alone agrees with that inferred from the analysis of stratigraphic gaps when data on the latter are available. (2) Whereas median durations based on simple tabulations of observed ranges are biased by stratigraphic resolution, our estimates of median duration, extinction rate, and completeness are not biased.(3) The shorter geologic ranges of mammalian species relative to those of bivalves cannot be attributed to a difference in preservation potential. However, we cannot rule out the contribution of taxonomic practice to this difference. (4) In the groups studied, completeness (proportion of species [trilobites, bivalves, mammals] or genera [crinoids] preserved) ranges from 60% to 90%. The higher estimates of completeness at smaller geographic scales support previous suggestions that the incompleteness of the fossil record reflects loss of fossiliferous rock more than failure of species to enter the fossil record in the first place.

Contributions of individual taxa to overall morphological disparity

Two methods are discussed for assessing the contributions of subgroups to the morpho- logical disparity of the larger group containing them. (1) Given an ordination of points representing specimens or species in morphological space, morphological disparity of the entire group is measured as the average squared distance of points from the centroid. The contribution that a subgroup makes to morphological disparity is measured as the average squared distance of its points from the overall centroid (not the subgroup centroid), weighted by the subgroup sample size relative to the total group sample size. Thus, morphological disparity of a group can be additively partitioned into the disparity components of its subgroups, and the relative contributions of these subgroups can be assessed quantitatively. (2) An alternative approach is to compare morphological disparity of a group to the disparity it would have if a certain subgroup were omitted. If the resulting disparity differs substantially from the original disparity, then the subgroup in question is considered to have a significant effect on morphological disparity. Because some subgroups are very centralized in mor- phological space, omitting them can cause an increase in morphological disparity when disparity is measured as the average dissimilarity among species. In general, relatively large subgroups that are located peripherally in morphospace make the greatest contributions to morphological disparity, and failure to sample smaller groups often has little effect on disparity estimates. The two methods are applied to morphological disparity in trilobites, partitioned at different levels in the taxonomic hierarchy. Results of the two methods are intuitively reasonable and largely in agreement, and point to the predominance of Early Cambrian olenelloids, Cambro-Ordovician Libristoma, Ordo- vician Asaphina and Cheirurina, Siluro-Devonian Phacopida and Phacopina, and Devonian Proetida.

Calibrating the Ordovician Radiation of marine life: implications for Phanerozoic diversity trends

It has long been suspected that trends in global marine biodiversity calibrated for the Phanerozoic may be affected by sampling problems. However, this possibility has not been evaluated definitively, and raw diversity trends are generally accepted at face value in macroevolutionary investigations. Here, we analyze a global-scale sample of fossil occurrences that allows us to determine directly the effects of sample size on the calibration of what is generally thought to be among the most significant global biodiversity increases in the history of life: the Ordovician Radiation. Utilizing a composite database that includes trilobites, brachiopods, and three classes of molluscs, we conduct rarefaction analyses to demonstrate that the diversification trajectory for the Radiation was considerably different than suggested by raw diversity time-series. Our analyses suggest that a substantial portion of the increase recognized in raw diversity depictions for the last three Ordovician epochs (the Llandeilian, Caradocian, and Ashgillian) is a consequence of increased sample size of the preserved and catalogued fossil record. We also use biometric data for a global sample of Ordovician trilobites, along with methods of measuring morphological diversity that are not biased by sample size, to show that morphological diversification in this major clade had leveled off by the Llanvirnian. The discordance between raw diversity depictions and more robust taxonomic and morphological diversity metrics suggests that sampling effects may strongly influence our perception of biodiversity trends throughout the Phanerozoic.

Morphological disparity in Ordovician-Devonian crinoids and the early saturation of morphological space

It has been argued that many clades originating in the early Paleozoic filled their design space rapidly while still at low taxonomic diversity. Standardization of morphology for analytical purposes facilitates testing of this claim. Here I document evolutionary patterns of morphological disparity in Ordovician-Devonian crinoids, using a set of 75 discrete characters covering the principal features of the crinoid stem, cup, tegmen, and arms. Disparity is measured as the average dissimilarity among species, the range of morphospace occupied, and the number of realized character-state combinations. Comparison with generic richness reveals that the full range of form was essentially attained by the early part of the Caradocian, long before the time of maximal taxonomic diversity. Despite subsequent taxonomic diversification, the variety of crinoid form did not expand appreciably; increased diversity was accommodated by the evolution of variations upon the spectrum of designs established earlier. The data discussed here do not definitively imply specific sources of constraint, but the effective stasis in disparity supports previous arguments that some morphological limits were reached early in crinoid history.

Morphological diversity in the evolutionary radiation of Paleozoic and post-Paleozoic crinoids

Abstract The Paleozoic and post-Paleozoic radiations of crinoids present an opportunity to explore genomic and ecological explanations for patterns of morphologic diversification. Analysis of discrete-character data that cover the principal features of the crinoid skeleton shows that both Paleozoic and post-Paleozoic increases in morphological disparity were abrupt; this is consistent with rapid exploitation of open ecological opportunities in both cases. For the post-Paleozoic, this result is sensitive to some aspects of data analysis and sampling, so it cannot be regarded as unequivocal. The deceleration in morphological diversification within each radiation is consistent with an observed decline in rates of taxonomic origination as well as with the attainment of functional or structural limits. Despite these similarities in the two radiations, Paleozoic crinoids exploited a wider range of morphological designs than did their post-Paleozoic successors. Post-Paleozoic crinoids exploited a wide range of ecological strategies despite being stereotyped in many aspects of form. This difference between the radiations is consistent with an increase in the rigidity of genetic and developmental systems. The range of post-Paleozoic designs is not in essence a subset of the Paleozoic spectrum. The two radiations resulted in morphological distributions that are largely nonoverlapping, perhaps reflecting a different range of ecological strategies.