Michael G. Baker

Household crowding a major risk factor for epidemic meningococcal disease in Auckland children.

Background. New Zealand is in its ninth year of a serogroup B meningococcal disease epidemic with annual rates of up to 16.9 cases per 100 000. The highest incidence is in Maori and Pacific Island children in the Auckland region. We conducted a case-control study to identify potentially modifiable risk factors for this disease. Methods. A case-control study of 202 cases of confirmed and probable meningococcal disease in Auckland children younger than 8 years of age recruited from May, 1997, to March, 1999, was undertaken. Controls (313) were recruited door-to-door by a cluster sampling method based on starting points randomly distributed in the Auckland region. They were frequency matched with the expected distribution of age and ethnicity in the meningococcal disease cases. Results. With the use of a multivariate model and controlling for age, ethnicity, season and socioeconomic factors, risk of disease was strongly associated with overcrowding as measured by the number of adolescent and adult (10 years or older) household members per room [odds ratio (OR), 10.7; 95% confidence interval (CI), 3.9 to 29.5]. This would result in a doubling of risk with the addition of 2 adolescents or adults to a 6-room house. Risk of disease was also associated with analgesic use by the child, which was thought to be a marker of recent illness (OR 2.4, CI 1.5 to 4.0); number of days at substantial social gatherings (10 or more people for > 4 h; OR 1.8, CI 1.2 to 2.6); number of smokers in the household (OR 1.4, CI 1.0 to 1.8); sharing an item of food, drink or a pacifier (OR 1.6, CI 1.0 to 2.7); and preceding symptoms of a respiratory infection (cough, “cold or flu,” runny nose, sneezing) in a household member (OR 1.5, CI 1.0 to 2.5). Conclusion. Some of these identified risk factors for meningococcal disease are modifiable. Measures to reduce overcrowding could have a marked effect on reducing the incidence of this disease in Auckland children.

Effects of improved home heating on asthma in community dwelling children: randomised controlled trial

Objective To assess whether non-polluting, more effective home heating (heat pump, wood pellet burner, flued gas) has a positive effect on the health of children with asthma. Design Randomised controlled trial. Setting Households in five communities in New Zealand. Participants 409 children aged 6-12 years with doctor diagnosed asthma. Interventions Installation of a non-polluting, more effective home heater before winter. The control group received a replacement heater at the end of the trial. Main outcome measures The primary outcome was change in lung function (peak expiratory flow rate and forced expiratory volume in one second, FEV1). Secondary outcomes were child reported respiratory tract symptoms and daily use of preventer and reliever drugs. At the end of winter 2005 (baseline) and winter 2006 (follow-up) parents reported their child’s general health, use of health services, overall respiratory health, and housing conditions. Nitrogen dioxide levels were measured monthly for four months and temperatures in the living room and child’s bedroom were recorded hourly. Results Improvements in lung function were not significant (difference in mean FEV1 130.7 ml, 95% confidence interval −20.3 to 281.7). Compared with children in the control group, however, children in the intervention group had 1.80 fewer days off school (95% confidence interval 0.11 to 3.13), 0.40 fewer visits to a doctor for asthma (0.11 to 0.62), and 0.25 fewer visits to a pharmacist for asthma (0.09 to 0.32). Children in the intervention group also had fewer reports of poor health (adjusted odds ratio 0.48, 95% confidence interval 0.31 to 0.74), less sleep disturbed by wheezing (0.55, 0.35 to 0.85), less dry cough at night (0.52, 0.32 to 0.83), and reduced scores for lower respiratory tract symptoms (0.77, 0.73 to 0.81) than children in the control group. The intervention was associated with a mean temperature rise in the living room of 1.10°C (95% confidence interval 0.54°C to 1.64°C) and in the child’s bedroom of 0.57°C (0.05°C to 1.08°C). Lower levels of nitrogen dioxide were measured in the living rooms of the intervention households than in those of the control households (geometric mean 8.5 μg/m3 v 15.7 μg/m3, P<0.001). A similar effect was found in the children’s bedrooms (7.3 μg/m3 v 10.9 μg/m3, P<0.001). Conclusion Installing non-polluting, more effective heating in the homes of children with asthma did not significantly improve lung function but did significantly reduce symptoms of asthma, days off school, healthcare utilisation, and visits to a pharmacist. Trial registration Clinical Trials NCT00489762.

New Zealand Epidemic of Meningococcal Disease Identified by a Strain with Phenotype B:4:P1.4

New Zealand is experiencing an epidemic of serogroup B meningococcal disease, which has taken the rate of disease from an average of 1.5/100,000 population in the preepidemic years of 1989 and 1990 to 14.0/100,000 in 1996. Sterile-site isolates of Neisseria meningitidis from cases of invasive disease have been phenotypically characterized by serogrouping, serotyping, and serosubtyping, revealing the involvement of a strain with phenotype B:4:P1.4. Macrorestriction analysis using pulsed-field gel electrophoresis on 667 meningococci isolated from cases during the epidemic has identified the clonal relationship of meningococci expressing the PorA P1.4 antigen. Multilocus enzyme electrophoresis has shown the epidemic strain B:4:P1.4 to belong to lineage III. The recorded characteristics of New Zealands epidemic are consistent with previous serogroup B epidemics in other parts of the world.

Infections, medication use, and the prevalence of symptoms of asthma, rhinitis, and eczema in childhood

Background: The “hygiene hypothesis” postulates that infections during infancy may protect against asthma and atopy. There is also some evidence that antibiotic and/or paracetamol use may increase the risk of asthma. Methods: The study measured the association between infections, and medication use early in life and the risk of asthma at age 6–7 years. It involved 1584 children who had been notified to public health services with serious infections at age 0–4 years, and 2539 children sampled from the general population. For both groups, postal questionnaires were completed by parents. Results: There was little difference in the prevalence of current wheezing between the childhood infections group (prevalence  =  23.5%) and the general population group (prevalence  =  24.3%). There was also little difference whether the major site of infection was gastrointestinal (prevalence  =  24.1%), invasive (prevalence  =  24.6%) or respiratory (prevalence  =  21.1%). However, in both groups, there were associations with antibiotic (OR = 1.78, 95% CI 1.49 to 2.14) or paracetamol (OR = 1.38, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.83) use in the first year of life or recent paracetamol use (OR = 2.10, 95% CI 1.78 to 2.49) and current wheezing. There was a weak protective effect of childhood infections in children who had not used antibiotics in the first year of life (OR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.55 to 1.10). Conclusions: These findings are consistent with other evidence that antibiotic use early in life may increase the risk of asthma. They are also consistent with some preliminary evidence associating paracetamol use with an increased risk of asthma. Any protective effect of notifiable childhood infections was weak.

Global Public Health Surveillance under New International Health Regulations

IHR 2005 establishes a global surveillance system for public health emergencies of international concern.

Increasing incidence of serious infectious diseases and inequalities in New Zealand: a national epidemiological study.

BACKGROUND Although the burden of infectious diseases seems to be decreasing in developed countries, few national studies have measured the total incidence of these diseases. We aimed to develop and apply a robust systematic method for monitoring the epidemiology of serious infectious diseases. METHODS We did a national epidemiological study with all hospital admissions for infectious and non-infectious diseases in New Zealand from 1989 to 2008, to investigate trends in incidence and distribution by ethnic group and socioeconomic status. We extended a recoding system based on the ninth revision of international classification of diseases (ICD-9) to the tenth revision (ICD-10), and applied this to data for hospital admissions from the New Zealand Ministry of Health, National Minimum Dataset. We filtered results to account for changes in health-care practices over time. Acute overnight admissions were the events of interest. FINDINGS Infectious diseases made the largest contribution to hospital admissions of any cause. Their contribution increased from 20·5% of acute admissions in 1989-93, to 26·6% in 2004-08. We noted clear ethnic and social inequalities in infectious disease risk. In 2004-08, the age-standardised rate ratio was 2·15 (95% CI 2·14-2·16) for Māori (indigenous New Zealanders) and 2·35 (2·34-2·37) for Pacific peoples compared with the European and other group. The ratio was 2·81 (2·80-2·83) for the most socioeconomically deprived quintile compared with the least deprived quintile. These inequalities have increased substantially in the past 20 years, particularly for Māori and Pacific peoples in the most deprived quintile. INTERPRETATION These findings support the need for stronger prevention efforts for infectious diseases, and reinforce the need to reduce ethnic and social inequalities and to address disparities in broad social determinants such as income levels, housing conditions, and access to health services. Our method could be adapted for infectious disease surveillance in other countries. FUNDING New Zealand Ministry of Health, New Zealand Health Research Council.

Tuberculosis associated with household crowding in a developed country

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains an important infectious disease in New Zealand (NZ) and globally, but risk factors for transmission are still poorly understood. This research aimed to identify whether household crowding contributes to TB transmission in NZ. Methods: This ecological study used TB surveillance and census data to calculate TB incidence rates by census area unit (CAU). Census data were used to determine CAU characteristics including proportion of household crowding (a bedroom deficit of one or more), proportion of population who are migrants born in high-TB-incidence countries, median household income, and deprivation level. A negative binomial regression model was used to estimate the association between TB incidence and household crowding. Results: The analysis included 1898 notified TB cases for the 2000–4 period. Univariate analysis showed TB incidence at the CAU level was associated with household crowding, for the total population and for all ethnic and age groups. After adjusting for the covariates of household income, existing TB burden, and proportion of migrants from high-TB-incidence countries, multivariate analysis showed statistically significant associations between TB incidence and household crowding. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) was 1.05 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.08) in the total population and 1.08 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.12) for NZ-born people <40 years. Conclusion: At the CAU level, TB incidence in NZ is associated with household crowding. An individual-based study (e.g. case–control) in recently infected cases (detected by molecular epidemiology techniques) is suggested to complement these findings. Reducing or eliminating household crowding could decrease TB incidence in NZ and globally.

A 10‐year serogroup B meningococcal disease epidemic in New Zealand: Descriptive epidemiology, 1991–2000

Objective: New Zealand has experienced an epidemic of meningococcal disease since 1991. This paper describes the characteristics of this epidemic during its first 10 years (1991–2000), current control measures, and potential future interventions.

Seasonality in human zoonotic enteric diseases: A systematic review

Background Although seasonality is a defining characteristic of many infectious diseases, few studies have described and compared seasonal patterns across diseases globally, impeding our understanding of putative mechanisms. Here, we review seasonal patterns across five enteric zoonotic diseases: campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, vero-cytotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VTEC), cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis in the context of two primary drivers of seasonality: (i) environmental effects on pathogen occurrence and pathogen-host associations and (ii) population characteristics/behaviour. Methodology/Principal Findings We systematically reviewed published literature from 1960–2010, resulting in the review of 86 studies across the five diseases. The Gini coefficient compared temporal variations in incidence across diseases and the monthly seasonality index characterised timing of seasonal peaks. Consistent seasonal patterns across transnational boundaries, albeit with regional variations was observed. The bacterial diseases all had a distinct summer peak, with identical Gini values for campylobacteriosis and salmonellosis (0.22) and a higher index for VTEC (Gini = 0.36). Cryptosporidiosis displayed a bi-modal peak with spring and summer highs and the most marked temporal variation (Gini = 0.39). Giardiasis showed a relatively small summer increase and was the least variable (Gini = 0.18). Conclusions/Significance Seasonal variation in enteric zoonotic diseases is ubiquitous, with regional variations highlighting complex environment-pathogen-host interactions. Results suggest that proximal environmental influences and host population dynamics, together with distal, longer-term climatic variability could have important direct and indirect consequences for future enteric disease risk. Additional understanding of the concerted influence of these factors on disease patterns may improve assessment and prediction of enteric disease burden in temperate, developed countries.

Risk Factors and Immunity in a Nationally Representative Population following the 2009 Influenza A(H1N1) Pandemic

Background Understanding immunity, incidence and risk factors of the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic (2009 H1N1) through a national seroprevalence study is necessary for informing public health interventions and disease modelling. Methods and Findings We collected 1687 serum samples and individual risk factor data between November-2009 to March-2010, three months after the end of the 2009 H1N1 wave in New Zealand. Participants were randomly sampled from selected general practices countrywide and hospitals in the Auckland region. Baseline immunity was measured from 521 sera collected during 2004 to April-2009. Haemagglutination inhibition (HI) antibody titres of ≥1∶40 against 2009 H1N1 were considered seroprotective as well as seropositive. The overall community seroprevalence was 26.7% (CI:22.6–29.4). The seroprevalence varied across age and ethnicity. Children aged 5–19 years had the highest seroprevalence (46.7%;CI:38.3–55.0), a significant increase from the baseline (14%;CI:7.2–20.8). Older adults aged ≥60 had no significant difference in seroprevalence between the serosurvey (24.8%;CI:18.7–30.9) and baseline (22.6%;CI:15.3–30.0). Pacific peoples had the highest seroprevalence (49.5%;CI:35.1–64.0). There was no significant difference in seroprevalence between both primary (29.6%;CI:22.6–36.5) and secondary healthcare workers (25.3%;CI:20.8–29.8) and community participants. No significant regional variation was observed. Multivariate analysis indicated age as the most important risk factor followed by ethnicity. Previous seasonal influenza vaccination was associated with higher HI titres. Approximately 45.2% of seropositive individuals reported no symptoms. Conclusions Based on age and ethnicity standardisation to the New Zealand Population, about 29.5% of New Zealanders had antibody titers at a level consistent with immunity to 2009 H1N1. Around 18.3% of New Zealanders were infected with the virus during the first wave including about one child in every three. Older people were protected due to pre-existing immunity. Age was the most important factor associated with infection followed by ethnicity. Healthcare workers did not appear to have an increased risk of infection compared with the general population.