Michael H. Glantz

Understanding the drought phenomenon: the role of definitions

(1985). Understanding: the Drought Phenomenon: The Role of Definitions. Water International: Vol. 10, No. 3, pp. 111-120.

ENSO as an integrating concept in earth science.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle of alternating warm El Niño and cold La Niña events is the dominant year-to-year climate signal on Earth. ENSO originates in the tropical Pacific through interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere, but its environmental and socioeconomic impacts are felt worldwide. Spurred on by the powerful 1997–1998 El Niño, efforts to understand the causes and consequences of ENSO have greatly expanded in the past few years. These efforts reveal the breadth of ENSOs influence on the Earth system and the potential to exploit its predictability for societal benefit. However, many intertwined issues regarding ENSO dynamics, impacts, forecasting, and applications remain unresolved. Research to address these issues will not only lead to progress across a broad range of scientific disciplines but also provide an opportunity to educate the public and policy makers about the importance of climate variability and change in the modern world.

Predictive Skill of Statistical and Dynamical Climate Models in SST Forecasts during the 1997—98 El Niño Episode and the 1998 La Niña Onset

Abstract Critical reviews of forecasts of ENSO conditions, based on a set of 15 dynamical and statistical models, are given for the 1997—98 El Nino event and the initial stages of the 1998—99 La Nina. While many of the models forecasted some degree of warming one to two seasons prior to the onset of the El Nino in boreal spring of 1997, none predicted its strength until the event was already becoming very strong in late spring. Neither the dynamical nor the statistical models, as groups, performed significantly better than the other during this episode. The best performing statistical models and dynamical models forecast SST anomalies of about +1°C (vs 2.5°—3° observed) in the Nino 3.4 region prior to any observed positive anomalies. The most comprehensive dynamical models performed better than the simple dynamical models. Once the El Nino had developed in mid-1997, a larger set of models was able to forecast its peak in late 1997 and dissipation and reversal to cold conditions in late spring/early summer...

Anatomy of a Rainfall Index

Abstract One particular index has been commonly used to monitor precipitation in drought-prone regions such as the West African Sahel and the Brazilian Northeast. The construction of this index involves standardizing the annual total rainfall for an individual nation and then averaging these standardized rainfall deviations over all the stations within the region to obtain a single value. Some theoretical properties of this “Standardized Anomaly Index” are derived. By studying its behavior when applied to actual rainfall data in the Sahel, certain aspects of the practical utility of the index are also considered. For instance, the claim that the Sahel has recently experienced a long run of relatively dry years does not appear to be sensitive to the exact form of index that is employed. On the other hand, it is shown by means of principal components analysis that no single index can “explain” a large portion of the variation in Sahelian rainfall, implying that much information, that is at least potentially...

Effective and Equitable Dissemination of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Forecasts: policy implications from the Peruvian fishery during El Niño 1997-98

The development of seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions has spurred widespread claims that the dissemination of such forecasts will yield benefits for society. Based on the use as well as non-use of forecasts in the Peruvian fishery during the 1997–98 El Niño event, weidentify: (1) potential constraints on the realization of benefits, such aslimited access to and understanding of information, and unintended reactions; (2) theneed for an appropriately detailed definition of societal benefit, considering whose welfare counts as a benefit among groups such as labor, industry, consumers, citizens of different regions, and future generations.We argue that consideration of who benefits, and an understanding of potential socioeconomic constraints and how they might be addressed, should be brought to bear on forecast dissemination choices. We conclude with examples of relevant dissemination choices made using this process.

Improving Federal Response to Drought

Abstract Severe and widespread drought occurred over a large portion of the United States between 1974 and 1977. Impacts on agriculture and other industries, as well as local water supplies, were substantial. The federal government responded with forty assistance programs administered by sixteen federal agencies. Assistance was provided primarily in the form of loans and grants to people, businesses and governments experiencing hardship caused by drought. The total cost of the program is estimated at

The Value of a Long-Range Weather Forecast for the West African Sahel

7–8 billion. Federal response to the mid-1970s drought was largely untimely, ineffective and poorly coordinated. Four recommendations are offered that, if implemented, would improve future drought assessment and response efforts: 1) reliable and timely informational products and dissemination plans; 2) improved impact assessment techniques, especially in the agricultural sector, for use by government to identify periods of enhanced risk and to trigger assistance measures; 3) administratively centralized drou...

Drought follows the plow : cultivating marginal areas

Abstract This paper is a study of the political, economic, social, and environmental implications for the West African Sahel of a long-range weather forecast. People representing several disciplines and fields of endeavor were asked what they would have done in October 1972 had they had an accurate forecast in terms of monthly averages of rainfall and temperature for the rainy season in 1973. The paper contains their responses and discusses their recommendations in light of the existing social, political, economic, and environmental constraints existing not only in the Sahelian countries but also in the international community. The authors purpose in submitting the paper to the Bulletin is to share information about the existing societal framework (in, for example, the West African Sahel) into which such weather information would be put. The paper is concerned with the social value of the weather information that will most likely be developed in the scientific communities in the industrialized countries.

Exploring the concept of climate surprise.

Preface List of contributors Introduction Michael H. Glantz Part I. Drought, Desertification and Food Production: 1. Drought Michael H. Glantz 2. Desertification Michael H. Glantz 3. Food production: role of marginal lands Michael H. Glantz 4. Cultivating the dry margins Michael H. Glantz Part II. Case Studies and Conclusions: 5. The West African Sahel Michael H. Glantz 6. Somalia Jorg Janzen 7. The Brazilian Nordeste (Northeast) Antonio Magalhaes and Pennie Magee 8. The dry regions of Kenya David Campbell 9. Australia R. Les Heathcote 10. Ethiopia James McCann 11. Northwest Africa Will Swearingen 12. The Virgin Lands scheme in the former Soviet Union Igor Zonn, Michael H. Glantz and Alvin Rubinstein 13. South Africa Coleen Vogel 14. Is the stork outrunning the plow? Michael H. Glantz Notes Index.

Tragedy in the Aral Sea basin: Looking back to plan ahead?☆

This paper examines the concept of climate surprise and its implications for environmental policymaking. Although long-term, incremental changes in climate can have serious consequences, it is usually the extreme, surprising events that cause the most damage to human health and property. Different taxonomies of surprise are explored, drawing from literature concerning diverse aspects of human society. Surprise is revealed to be a subjective concept in many respects, triggered by such factors as prior experience, belief systems, and media exposure. How policymakers have reacted to climate surprises in the past is considered, particularly with regard to choices made between pro-active and reactive measures. It is concluded that, while some kinds of surprise are truly unpredictable, there are other types that could be anticipated and their adverse effects forestalled.