Michael J. Artis

International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?

Successful fixed exchange rate regimes impose policy disciplines that are likely to lead to conformity in the business cycles of the participating countries. This conjecture is borne out in the present paper by the evidence that the business cycle affiliation of ERM member countries has shifted from the United States to Germany since the formation of the ERM. This effect is bolstered by growing links in trade and finance between the European countries. The United Kingdom is conspicuous among these in that its business cycle affiliation did not change in the period of study. Copyright @ 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Business Cycles for G7 and European Countries

This article proposes classical business cycle turning points for the G7 and a number of European countries based on industrial production. This enables the authors to examine the international nature of cyclical movements free from arbitrary assumptions about the trend. In particular, they show that cyclical assymetry is common, with slopes during declines being generally larger in magnitude than during expansions. A binary measure of association for expansion and contradiction regimes indicates a core group of European countries related to each other and apparently linked to the United States and Japan through Germany. Copyright 1997 by University of Chicago Press.

Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle

In this Paper we compare alternative approaches for dating the euro area business cycle and analysing its characteristics. First, we extend a commonly used dating procedure to allow for length, size and amplitude restrictions, and to compute the probability of a phase change. Second, we apply the modified algorithm for dating both the classical euro area cycle and the deviation cycle, where the latter is obtained by a variety of methods, including a modified HP filter that reproduces the features of the BK filter but avoids end-point problems, and a production function based approach. Third, we repeat the dating exercise for the main euro area countries, evaluate the degree of synchronization, and compare the results with the UK and the US. Fourth, we construct indices of business cycle diffusion, and assess how widespread are cyclical movements throughout the economy. Finally we repeat the dating exercise using monthly industrial production data, to evaluate whether the higher sampling frequency can compensate the higher variability of the series and produce a more accurate dating.

Close to Balance or in Surplus: A Policy Maker's Guide to the Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact

Under the Stability and Growth Pact, countries are committed to achieving medium-term budget positions of “close to balance or in surplus”. The rationale for this commitment is that such budgetary positions would allow for the full working of the built-in stabilizers without triggering the sanction procedures of the Pact. The paper sets out to show how quantifications of the medium-term (‘structural’) requirement can accommodate the desired aim and suggests how fiscal measurement and forecasting errors as well as the budgetary effects of ageing may be allowed for. All in all, broadly balanced budgets in the medium term appear to be ‘roughly right’ for most euro-area countries. Of course, as the cyclical behaviour of the euro-area economy adapts to the new EMU environment, the medium-term targets will need to be re-addressed.

Fiscal Forecasting: the Track Record of the IMF, OECD and EC

We analyse the relative performance of the IMF, OECD and EC in forecasting the government deficit, as a ratio to GDP, for the G7 countries. Interesting differences across countries emerge, sometimes supporting the hypothesis of an asymmetric loss function (i.e. of a preference for underprediction or overprediction), and potential benefits from forecast pooling.

How Accurate are the IMF`s Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook

This paper analyzes the short-term forecasts for industrial and developing countries produced by the International Monetary Fund, and published twice a year in the World Economic Outlook (WEO). For the industrial country group, the WEO forecasts for output growth and inflation are satisfactory and pass most conventional tests in forecasting economic developments, although forecast accuracy has not improved over time, and predicting the turning points of the business cycle remains a weakness. For the developing countries, the task of forecasting movements in economic activity is even more difficult and the conventional measures of forecast accuracy are less satisfactory than for the industrial countries.

Characterising the Business Cycle for Accession Countries

We analyse the evolution of the business cycle in the accession countries, after a careful examination of the seasonal properties of the available series and the required modification of the cycle dating procedures. We then focus on the degree of cyclical concordance within the group of accession countries, which turns out to be in general lower than that between the existing EU countries (the Baltic countries constitute an exception). With respect to the Eurozone, the indications of synchronization are also generally low and lower relative to the position obtaining for countries taking part in previous enlargements (with the exceptions of Poland, Slovenia and Hungary). In the light of the optimal currency area literature, these results cast doubts on the usefulness of adopting the euro in the near future for most accession countries, though other criteria such as the extent of trade and the gains in credibility may point in a different direction.

The Transmission of Business Cycles Implications for EMU Enlargement

We show that countries characterized by large bilateral trade and financial flows tend to have more correlated business cycles. However, we also find that countries with divergent fiscal policies and highly regulated labour markets are subject to idiosyncratic cycles. Applying these results to the new member states of the EU weakens the optimistic view towards the monetary integration of these countries into the euro area, which is frequently found in the literature. Although our results suggest that extensive trade and financial linkages are likely to result in further increases in business cycle correlation, an increase in labour market regulation and the pursuit of national fiscal policies may result in a counteracting effect.

Financial Globalization, International Business Cycles and Consumption Risk Sharing

In spite of two decades of financial globalization, consumption-based indicators do not seem to signal more international risk sharing. We argue that consumption risk sharing among industrialised countries has actually increased - in particular since the 1990s - but that standard consumption-based measures of risk sharing - such as the volatility of consumption conditional on output or international consumption correlations - have been unable to detect this increase. The reason is that consumption has also been affected by the concurrent decline in the volatility of output growth in most industrialised countries since the 1980s. As a first important driver of this decline we identify a more gradual response of output to permanent idiosyncratic shocks. Since consumption reacts mainly to permanent shocks, it appears more volatile in relation to current changes in output. This effect seems to have offset the tendency of financial globalization to lower the volatility of consumption conditional on output. Secondly, because the variability of permanent global shocks has also fallen, international consumption correlations have also generally not increased as financial markets have become more integrated.

Wages and Prices in Europe: A Test of the German Leadership Thesis

ZusammenfassungLöhne und Preise in Europa. Ein Test der These von der Vorherrschaft der Bundesrepublik. — Die Autoren prüfen die These, da\ das EuropÄische WÄhrungssystem (EWS) der Bundesrepublik zur Führung bei der InflationsbekÄmpfung verhalf. Dabei werden zwei AnsÄtze verwendet. Bei dem ersten wird die Bedeutung der deutschen Inflationserwartungen für die Erwartungen in anderen EWS-LÄndern untersucht, beim zweiten die Kointegration zwischen der Inflation in Deutschland und der in anderen EWS-LÄndern. Zur Kontrolle werden einerseits die Daten aus der Zeit vor Errichtung des EWS verwendet und andererseits die Daten des Vereinigten Königreichs, das am Wechselkursmechanismus des EWS nicht partizipierte. Die Ergebnisse sind zwar in mancher Hinsicht günstig, können aber nicht endgültig eine deutsche Führungsrolle im EWS bestÄtigen. Mit Hilfe der Kointegrationstechniken wird au\erdem gezeigt, da\ die KaufkraftparitÄt für das EWS nicht kennzeichnend war.RésuméLes revenus et les prix en Europe: Un test de la thèse de la prédominance allemande. — Cette étude a l’intention de vérifier la thèse que le système monétaire européen (SME) a fait se former la prédominance allemande dans la lutte contre l’inflation. Il y a deux tests. D’abord, on a examiné l’importance des expectations de l’inflation allemande pour les expectations aux autres pays du SME, puis on a examiné la cointégration de l’inflation en RFA avec celle aux autres pays. On emploie deux systèmes de contrÔle: les données avant la fondation du SME et les données pour la Grande Bretagne qui n’a pas été membre du SME. Les résultats étant favorables à beaucoup d’autres aspects ne peuvent pas confirmer le rÔle prédominant de la RFA dans le SME. En utilisant des techniques de cointégration on a aussi trouvé que la parité du pouvoir d’achat n’a pas caractérisé le SME.ResumenSalarios y precios en Europa : un test de la tesis del lidemgo alemán. — En este trabajo se examina la tesis que el Sistema Monetario Europeo (SME) constituye un vehículo para el liderazgo alemán en materia de política antiinflacionaria. Se emplean dos enfoques. En uno de ellos se estudia la relevancia de las expectativas inflacionarias en Alemania para las expectativas en otros países miembros del SME, en el otro se examina empirícamente la cointegraciÔn entre la inflatión en Alemania y la de otros países del SME. Para ello se utilizan dos controles: datos para el período anterior al SME y datos para el Reino Unido, país no miembro del SME. Los resultados, si bien favorables en relatión a ciertos aspectos, no confÏrman en Última instancia la tesis del liderazgo alemân en el SME. Asimismo, se demuestra que, utilizando técnicas de cointegración, el SME no está caracterizado por la paridad del poder de compra.