Michael J. Prietula

The Cambridge Handbook of Expertise and Expert Performance: Studies of Expertise from Psychological Perspectives

Introduction The study of expertise has a very long history that has been discussed in several other chapters in this handbook (Ericsson, Chapter 1; Amirault & Branson, Chapter 5). This chapter focuses on the influential developments within cognitive science and cognitive psychology that have occurred over the last three decades. Our chapter consists of two parts. In the first part we briefly review what we consider the major developments in cognitive science and cognitive psychology that led to the new field of expertise studies. In the second part we attempt to characterize some of the emerging insights about mechanisms and aspects of expertise that generalize across domains, and we explore the original theoretical accounts, along with more recent ones. The Development of Expertise Studies In this handbook there are several pioneering research traditions represented that were brought together to allow laboratory studies of expertise, along with the development of formal models that can reproduce the performance of the experts. One early stream was the study of thinking using protocol analysis, where participants were instructed to “think aloud” while solving everyday life problems (Duncker, 1945), and experts were asked to think aloud while selecting moves for chess positions (de Groot, 1946/1965; Ericsson, Chapter 13). Another stream developed out of the research on judgment and decision making, where researchers compared the judgments of experts to those of statistical models (Meehl, 1954; Yates & Tschirhart, Chapter 24).

Examining the feasibility of a case-based reasoning model for software effort estimation

Existing algorithmic models fail to produce accurate software development effort estimates. To address this problem, a case.based reasoning model, called Estor, was developed based on the verbal protocols of a human expert solving a set of estimation problems. Estor was then presented with 15 software effort estimation tasks. The estimates of Estor were compared to those of the expert as well as those of the function point and COCOMO estimations of the projects. The estimates generated by the human expert and Estor were more accurate and consistent than those of the function point and COCOMO methods. In fact, Estor was nearly as accurate and consistent as the expert. These results sug.

Knowledge matters : The effect of tactical descriptions on negotiation behavior and outcome

The impact of tactical knowledge on negotiator behaviors and joint outcomes was examined. It was hypothesized that the availability of written descriptions of negotiation tactics would provide negotiators with the knowledge necessary to apply in a mixed-motive negotiation and that, as a result, these negotiators would engage in different behaviors leading to higher joint outcomes than would negotiators without this knowledge. Ninety dyads engaged in a multi-issue joint venture negotiation: 45 dyads were provided tactical descriptions, and the other 45 were not. Dyads with tactical knowledge engaged in more integrative behaviors and achieved higher joint outcomes, with integrative behaviors serving as mediators of the knowledge-outcome effect. Distributive behaviors were found to be negatively related to joint outcome but were not influenced by tactical knowledge.

ACTS theory: extending the model of bounded rationality

Changes in objectives, in resources, or in the environment may necessitate the adaptation of an organization from one form to another. However, in many cases, the organizations need to continue functioning while adaptation takes place, i.e., it is not possible to stop the organizational activity in order to reorganize, and then start again. In this case, adaptation can be expressed as a morphing process in which the organization transitions from one form with its attendant task allocation to a different one through a series of incremental steps that preserve overall functionality and performance. Coordination between organization members during adaptation is critical. A computational model for this type of organizational adaptation at the operational level is presented. The model is implemented using the Colored Petri Net formulation of discrete event dynamical systems. A design methodology that utilizes this model is outlined and a simple example is used to illustrate the approach.

Software-Effort Estimation: An Exploratory Study of Expert Performance

An exploratory study was conducted a to examine whether experienced software managers could generate accurate estimates of effort required for proposed software projects and b to document the strategies they bring to bear in their estimations. Five experienced software project managers served as expert subjects for the study. Each manager was first asked to sort a set of 37 commonly-used estimation parameters according to the importance of their effect on effort estimation. Once this task was completed, the manager was then presented with data from ten actual software projects, one at a time, and asked to estimate the effort in worker-months required to complete the projects. The project sizes ranged from 39,000 to 450,000 lines of code and varied from 23 to 1,107 worker-months to complete. All managers were tested individually. The results were compared to those of two popular analytical models-Function Points and COCOMO. Results show that the managers made more accurate estimates than the uncalibrated analytical models. Additionally, a process-tracing analysis revealed that the managers used two dissimilar types of strategies to solve the estimation problems-algorithmic and analogical. Four managers invoked algorithmic strategies, which relied on the selection of a base productivity rate as an anchor that was further adjusted to compensate for productivity factors impacting the project. The fifth manager invoked analogical strategies, which did not rely on a base productivity rate as an anchor, but centered around the analysis of the Function Point data to assist in retrieving information regarding a similar, previously-managed project. The manager using the latter, analogical reasoning approach produced the most accurate estimates.

How Knowledge Transfer Impacts Performance: A Multilevel Model of Benefits and Liabilities

When does knowledge transfer benefit performance? Combining field data from a global consulting firm with an agent-based model, we examine how efforts to supplement ones knowledge from coworkers interact with individual, organizational, and environmental characteristics to impact organizational performance. We find that once cost and interpersonal exchange are included in the analysis, the impact of knowledge transfer is highly contingent. Depending on specific characteristics and circumstances, knowledge transfer can better, matter little to, or even harm performance. Three illustrative studies clarify puzzling past results and offer specific boundary conditions: 1 At the individual level, better organizational support for employee learning diminishes the benefit of knowledge transfer for organizational performance. 2 At the organization level, broader access to organizational memory makes global knowledge transfer less beneficial to performance. 3 When the organizational environment becomes more turbulent, the organizational performance benefits of knowledge transfer decrease. The findings imply that organizations may forgo investments in both organizational memory and knowledge exchange, that wide-ranging knowledge exchange may be unimportant or even harmful for performance, and that organizations operating in turbulent environments may find that investment in knowledge exchange undermines performance rather than enhances it. At a time when practitioners are urged to make investments in facilitating knowledge transfer and collaboration, appreciation of the complex relationship between knowledge transfer and performance will help in reaping benefits while avoiding liabilities.

The price of your soul: neural evidence for the non-utilitarian representation of sacred values

Sacred values, such as those associated with religious or ethnic identity, underlie many important individual and group decisions in life, and individuals typically resist attempts to trade off their sacred values in exchange for material benefits. Deontological theory suggests that sacred values are processed based on rights and wrongs irrespective of outcomes, while utilitarian theory suggests that they are processed based on costs and benefits of potential outcomes, but which mode of processing an individual naturally uses is unknown. The study of decisions over sacred values is difficult because outcomes cannot typically be realized in a laboratory, and hence little is known about the neural representation and processing of sacred values. We used an experimental paradigm that used integrity as a proxy for sacredness and which paid real money to induce individuals to sell their personal values. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), we found that values that people refused to sell (sacred values) were associated with increased activity in the left temporoparietal junction and ventrolateral prefrontal cortex, regions previously associated with semantic rule retrieval. This suggests that sacred values affect behaviour through the retrieval and processing of deontic rules and not through a utilitarian evaluation of costs and benefits.

Getting to Best: Efficiency versus Optimality in Negotiation

Negotiation between two individuals is a common task that typically involves two goals: maximize individual outcomes and obtain an agreement. However, research on the simplest negotiation tasks demonstrates that although naive subjects can be induced to improve their performance, they are often no more likely to achieve fully optimal solutions. The present study tested the prediction that a decrease in a particular type of argumentative behavior, substantiation, would result in an increase in optimal agreements. As substantiation behaviors depend primarily on supplied content of the negotiation task, it was also predicted that substantiation behavior would be reduced by curtailing the content. A 2 × 2 experimental design was employed, where both negotiation tactics (list of tactics present versus absent) and negotiation task content (high versus low) were varied to determine the processes leading beyond solution improvement to solution optimality. Sixty-one dyads engaged in a two-party, four-issue negotiation task. All negotiations were videotaped and analyzed. Although the list of negotiation tactics resulted in improved performance, only the content manipulation resulted in a significant increase in dyads achieving optimal solutions. Analyses of the coded protocols indicated that the key difference in achieving optimality was a reduction in persistent substantiation-related operators (substantiation, along with single-issue preferences and procedures) and an increase in a complex macro-operator, multi-issue offers that reduced the problem space, facilitating the search for optimality.

A protocol-based coding scheme for the analysis of medical reasoning

Abstract One of the most common methods of codifying and interpreting human knowledge is through the use of verbal protocol analysis. Although the application of this methodology has increased in recent years, few detailed examples are readily available in the literature. This paper discusses the theoretical issues and methodological procedures pertaining to the analysis of verbal protocols collected from physicians engaged in medical problem solving. We first present a brief historical perspective on verbal protocol methodology. We then discuss how we have come to view the task of medical diagnosis both in general and in particular with respect to a specific specialty—congenital heart disease. Next, we describe and provide examples of our methodology for coding verbal protocols of physicians into abstract, but meaningful objects which are elements of a theory of diagnostic reasoning. In particular, we demonstrate how the coding scheme can represent an important aspect of medical problem solving behavior called a line of reasoning. We conclude by proposing how such analysis is important to understanding the psychology of medical problem solving and how this type of analysis plays an important role in the development of medical artificial intelligence systems and educational efforts directed toward the development of expertise in medical problem solving.

Computational organization theory: Autonomous agents and emergent behavior

A computational organization theory is the articulation of an organization theory in the form of a computer program. We describe an example of this approach to studying organizational phenomena through the use of simulated autonomous intelligent agents, present a detailed description of such a model, and demonstrate the application through a series of experiments conducted with the model. The model, called Plural‐Soar, represents a partial instantiation of a cognitively motivated theory that views organizational behavior as emergent behavior from the collective interaction of intelligent agents over time, and that causal interpretations of certain organizational phenomena must be based on theoretically sufficient models of individual deliberation. We examine the individual and collective behavior of the agents under varying conditions of agent capabilities defined by their communication and memory properties. Thirty separate simulations with homogeneous agent groups were run varying agent type, group size...