Michael Kampouridis

EDDIE for investment opportunities forecasting: Extending the search space of the GP

In this paper we present a new version of a GP-based financial forecasting tool called EDDIE. The novelty of this new version (EDDIE 8), is its enlarged search space, where we allow the GP to search in the space of the technical indicators, in order to form its Genetic Decision Trees. In this way, EDDIE 8 is not constrained in using pre-specified indicators, but it is left up to the GP to choose the optimal ones. We then proceed to compare EDDIE 8 with EDDIE 7, which is based on previous EDDIE versions; EDDIE 7 has a smaller space where the indicators are pre-specified by the user and are part of EDDIE 8s space. Results show that thanks to the bigger search space, new and improved solutions can be found by EDDIE 8. However, there are cases where EDDIE 8 can still be outperformed by its predecessor. Analysis shows that this depends on the nature of the solutions. If the solutions come from EDDIE 8s search space, then EDDIE 8 can find them and perform better; if, however, solutions come from the smaller search space of EDDIE 7, then EDDIE 8 is having difficulties focusing in such a small space and is thus outperformed by EDDIE 7.

Investment Opportunities Forecasting: Extending the Grammar of a GP-based Tool

Abstract In this paper we present a new version of a GP financial forecasting tool, called EDDIE 8. The novelty of this version is that it allows the GP to search in the space of indicators, instead of using pre-specified ones. We compare EDDIE 8 with its predecessor, EDDIE 7, and find that new and improved solutions can be found. Analysis also shows that, on average, EDDIE 8s best tree performs better than the one of EDDIE 7. The above allows us to characterize EDDIE 8 as a valuable forecasting tool.

On the investigation of hyper-heuristics on a financial forecasting problem

Financial forecasting is a really important area in computational finance, with numerous works in the literature. This importance can be reflected in the literature by the continuous development of new algorithms. Hyper-heuristics have been successfully used in the past for a number of search and optimization problems, and have shown very promising results. To the best of our knowledge, they have not been used for financial forecasting. In this paper we present pioneer work, where we use different hyper-heuristics frameworks to investigate whether we can improve the performance of a financial forecasting tool called EDDIE 8. EDDIE 8 allows the GP (Genetic Programming) to search in the search space of indicators for solutions, instead of using pre-specified ones; as a result, its search area has dramatically increased and sometimes solutions can be missed due to ineffective search. We apply 14 different low-level heuristics to EDDIE 8, to 30 different datasets, and examine their effect to the algorithm’s performance. We then select the most prominent heuristics and combine them into three different hyper-heuristics frameworks. Results show that all three frameworks are competitive, and are able to show significantly improved results, especially in the case of best results. Lastly, analysis on the weights of the heuristics shows that there can be a constant swinging among some of the low-level heuristics, which denotes that the hyper-heuristics frameworks are able to ‘know’ the appropriate time to switch from one heuristic to the other, based on their effectiveness.

Generating Directional Change Based Trading Strategies with Genetic Programming

The majority of forecasting tools use a physical time scale for studying price fluctuations of financial markets, making the flow of physical time discontinuous. Therefore, using a physical time scale may expose companies to risks, due to ignorance of some significant activities. In this paper, an alternative and novel approach is explored to capture important activities in the market. The main idea is to use an intrinsic time scale based on Directional Changes. Combined with Genetic Programming, the proposed approach aims to find an optimal trading strategy to forecast the future price moves of a financial market. In order to evaluate its efficiency and robustness as forecasting tool, a series of experiments was performed, where we were able to obtain valuable information about the forecasting performance. The results from the experiments indicate that this new framework is able to generate new and profitable trading strategies.

Predicting Rainfall in the Context of Rainfall Derivatives Using Genetic Programming

Rainfall is one of the most challenging variables to predict, as it exhibits very unique characteristics that do not exist in other time series data. Moreover, rainfall is a major component and is essential for applications that surround water resource planning. In particular, this paper is interested in the prediction of rainfall for rainfall derivatives. Currently in the rainfall derivatives literature, the process of predicting rainfall is dominated by statistical models, namely using a Markov-chain extended with rainfall prediction (MCRP). In this paper we outline a new methodology to be carried out by predicting rainfall with Genetic Programming (GP). This is the first time in the literature that GP is used within the context of rainfall derivatives. We have created a new tailored GP to this problem domain and we compare the performance of the GP and MCRP on 21 different data sets of cities across Europe and report the results. The goal is to see whether GP can outperform MCRP, which acts as a benchmark. Results indicate that in general GP significantly outperforms MCRP, which is the dominant approach in the literature.

Microstructure dynamics and agent-based financial markets

One of the essential features of the agent-based financial models is to show how price dynamics is affected by the evolving microstructure. Empirical work on this microstructure dynamics is, however, built upon highly simplified and unrealistic behavioral models of financial agents. Using genetic programming as a rule-inference engine and self-organizing maps as a clustering machine, we are able to reconstruct the possible underlying microstructure dynamics corresponding to the underlying asset. In light of the agent-based financial models, we further examine the microstructure both in terms of its short-term dynamics and long-term distribution. The time series of the TAIEX is employed as an illustration of the implementation of the idea.

Heuristic procedures for improving the predictability of a genetic programming financial forecasting algorithm

Financial forecasting is an important area in computational finance. Evolutionary Dynamic Data Investment Evaluator (EDDIE) is an established genetic programming (GP) financial forecasting algorithm, which has successfully been applied to a number of international financial datasets. The purpose of this paper is to further improve the algorithm’s predictive performance, by incorporating heuristics in the search. We propose the use of two heuristics: a sequential covering strategy to iteratively build a solution in combination with the GP search and the use of an entropy-based dynamic discretisation procedure of numeric values. To examine the effectiveness of the proposed improvements, we test the new EDDIE version (EDDIE 9) across 20 datasets and compare its predictive performance against three previous EDDIE algorithms. In addition, we also compare our new algorithm’s performance against C4.5 and RIPPER, two state-of-the-art classification algorithms. Results show that the introduction of heuristics is very successful, allowing the algorithm to outperform all previous EDDIE versions and the well-known C4.5 and RIPPER algorithms. Results also show that the algorithm is able to return significantly high rates of return across the majority of the datasets.

Evolving Trading Strategies Using Directional Changes

The majority of forecasting methods use a physical time scale for studying price fluctuations of financial markets, making the flow of physical time discontinuous. Therefore, using a physical time scale may expose companies to risks, due to ignorance of some significant activities. In this paper, an alternative and original approach is explored to capture important activities in the market. The main idea is to use an event-based time scale based on a new way of summarising data, called Directional Changes. Combined with a genetic algorithm, the proposed approach aims to find a trading strategy that maximises profitability in foreign exchange markets. In order to evaluate its efficiency and robustness, we run rigorous experiments on 255 datasets from six different currency pairs, consisting of intra-day data from the foreign exchange spot market. The results from these experiments indicate that our proposed approach is able to generate new and profitable trading strategies, significantly outperforming other traditional types of trading strategies, such as technical analysis and buy and hold.

An extensive evaluation of seven machine learning methods for rainfall prediction in weather derivatives

Regression problems provide some of the most challenging research opportunities in the area of machine learning, and more broadly intelligent systems, where the predictions of some target variables are critical to a specific application. Rainfall is a prime example, as it exhibits unique characteristics of high volatility and chaotic patterns that do not exist in other time series data. This work’s main impact is to show the benefit machine learning algorithms, and more broadly intelligent systems have over the current state-of-the-art techniques for rainfall prediction within rainfall derivatives. We apply and compare the predictive performance of the current state-of-the-art (Markov chain extended with rainfall prediction) and six other popular machine learning algorithms, namely: Genetic Programming, Support Vector Regression, Radial Basis Neural Networks, M5 Rules, M5 Model trees, and k-Nearest Neighbours. To assist in the extensive evaluation, we run tests using the rainfall time series across data sets for 42 cities, with very diverse climatic features. This thorough examination shows that the machine learning methods are able to outperform the current state-of-the-art. Another contribution of this work is to detect correlations between different climates and predictive accuracy. Thus, these results show the positive effect that machine learning-based intelligent systems have for predicting rainfall based on predictive accuracy and with minimal correlations existing across climates.

Working with OpenCL to speed up a genetic programming financial forecasting algorithm: initial results

The genetic programming tool EDDIE has been shown to be a successful financial forecasting tool, however it has suffered from an increase in execution time as new features have been added. Speed is an important aspect in financial problems, especially in the field of algorithmic trading, where a delay in taking a decision could cost millions. To offset this performance loss, EDDIE has been modified to take advantage of multi-core CPUs and dedicated GPUs. This has been achieved by modifying the candidate solution evaluation to use an OpenCL kernel, allowing the parallel evaluation of solutions. Our computational results have shown improvements in the running time of EDDIE when the evaluation was delegated to the OpenCL kernel running on a multi-core CPU, with speed ups up to 21 times faster than the original EDDIE algorithm. While most previous works in the literature reported significantly improvements in performance when running an OpenCL kernel on a GPU device, we did not observe this in our results. Further investigation revealed that memory copying overheads and branching code in the kernel are potentially causes of the (under-)performance of the OpenCL kernel when running on the GPU device.