Michael L. Goulden

Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply

More than half of the solar energy absorbed by land surfaces is currently used to evaporate water. Climate change is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle and to alter evapotranspiration, with implications for ecosystem services and feedback to regional and global climate. Evapotranspiration changes may already be under way, but direct observational constraints are lacking at the global scale. Until such evidence is available, changes in the water cycle on land—a key diagnostic criterion of the effects of climate change and variability—remain uncertain. Here we provide a data-driven estimate of global land evapotranspiration from 1982 to 2008, compiled using a global monitoring network, meteorological and remote-sensing observations, and a machine-learning algorithm. In addition, we have assessed evapotranspiration variations over the same time period using an ensemble of process-based land-surface models. Our results suggest that global annual evapotranspiration increased on average by 7.1 ± 1.0 millimetres per year per decade from 1982 to 1997. After that, coincident with the last major El Niño event in 1998, the global evapotranspiration increase seems to have ceased until 2008. This change was driven primarily by moisture limitation in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly Africa and Australia. In these regions, microwave satellite observations indicate that soil moisture decreased from 1998 to 2008. Hence, increasing soil-moisture limitations on evapotranspiration largely explain the recent decline of the global land-evapotranspiration trend. Whether the changing behaviour of evapotranspiration is representative of natural climate variability or reflects a more permanent reorganization of the land water cycle is a key question for earth system science.

Net Exchange of CO2 in a Mid-Latitude Forest.

The eddy correlation method was used to measure the net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide continuously from April 1990 to December 1991 in a deciduous forest in central Massachusetts. The annual net uptake was 3.7 � 0.7 metric tons of carbon per hectare per year. Ecosystem respiration, calculated from the relation between nighttime exchange and soil temperature, was 7.4 metric tons of carbon per hectare per year, implying gross ecosystem production of 11.1 metric tons of carbon per hectare per year. The observed rate of accumulation of carbon reflects recovery from agricultural development in the 1800s. Carbon uptake rates were notably larger than those assumed for temperate forests in global carbon studies. Carbon storage in temperate forests can play an important role in determining future concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Exchange of Carbon Dioxide by a Deciduous Forest: Response to Interannual Climate Variability

The annual net uptake of CO2 by a deciduous forest in New England varied from 1.4 to 2.8 metric tons of carbon per hectare between 1991 and 1995. Carbon sequestration was higher than average in 1991 because of increased photosynthesis and in 1995 because of decreased respiration. Interannual shifts in photosynthesis were associated with the timing of leaf expansion and senescence. Shifts in annual respiration were associated with anomalies in soil temperature, deep snow in winter, and drought in summer. If this ecosystem is typical of northern biomes, interannual climate variations on seasonal time scales may modify annual CO2 exchange in the Northern Hemisphere by 1 gigaton of carbon or more each year.

Reconciling carbon-cycle concepts, terminology, and methods

Recent projections of climatic change have focused a great deal of scientific and public attention on patterns of carbon (C) cycling as well as its controls, particularly the factors that determine whether an ecosystem is a net source or sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Net ecosystem production (NEP), a central concept in C-cycling research, has been used by scientists to represent two different concepts. We propose that NEP be restricted to just one of its two original definitions—the imbalance between gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER). We further propose that a new term—net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB)—be applied to the net rate of C accumulation in (or loss from [negative sign]) ecosystems. Net ecosystem carbon balance differs from NEP when C fluxes other than C fixation and respiration occur, or when inorganic C enters or leaves in dissolved form. These fluxes include the leaching loss or lateral transfer of C from the ecosystem; the emission of volatile organic C, methane, and carbon monoxide; and the release of soot and CO2 from fire. Carbon fluxes in addition to NEP are particularly important determinants of NECB over long time scales. However, even over short time scales, they are important in ecosystems such as streams, estuaries, wetlands, and cities. Recent technological advances have led to a diversity of approaches to the measurement of C fluxes at different temporal and spatial scales. These approaches frequently capture different components of NEP or NECB and can therefore be compared across scales only by carefully specifying the fluxes included in the measurements. By explicitly identifying the fluxes that comprise NECB and other components of the C cycle, such as net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and net biome production (NBP), we can provide a less ambiguous framework for understanding and communicating recent changes in the global C cycle.

Rapid shifts in plant distribution with recent climate change

A change in climate would be expected to shift plant distribution as species expand in newly favorable areas and decline in increasingly hostile locations. We compared surveys of plant cover that were made in 1977 and 2006–2007 along a 2,314-m elevation gradient in Southern Californias Santa Rosa Mountains. Southern Californias climate warmed at the surface, the precipitation variability increased, and the amount of snow decreased during the 30-year period preceding the second survey. We found that the average elevation of the dominant plant species rose by ≈65 m between the surveys. This shift cannot be attributed to changes in air pollution or fire frequency and appears to be a consequence of changes in regional climate.

The Impact of Boreal Forest Fire on Climate Warming

We report measurements and analysis of a boreal forest fire, integrating the effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, black carbon deposition on snow and sea ice, and postfire changes in surface albedo. The net effect of all agents was to increase radiative forcing during the first year (34 ± 31 Watts per square meter of burned area), but to decrease radiative forcing when averaged over an 80-year fire cycle (–2.3 ± 2.2 Watts per square meter) because multidecadal increases in surface albedo had a larger impact than fire-emitted greenhouse gases. This result implies that future increases in boreal fire may not accelerate climate warming.

Ecosystem carbon dioxide fluxes after disturbance in forests of North America

Disturbances are important for renewal of North American forests. Here we summarize more than 180 site years of eddy covariance measurements of carbon dioxide flux made at forest chronosequences in North America. The disturbances included stand-replacing fire (Alaska, Arizona, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan) and harvest (British Columbia, Florida, New Brunswick, Oregon, Quebec, Saskatchewan, and Wisconsin) events, insect infestations (gypsy moth, forest tent caterpillar, and mountain pine beetle), Hurricane Wilma, and silvicultural thinning (Arizona, California, and New Brunswick). Net ecosystem production (NEP) showed a carbon loss from all ecosystems following a stand-replacing disturbance, becoming a carbon sink by 20 years for all ecosystems and by 10 years for most. Maximum carbon losses following disturbance (g C m−2y−1) ranged from 1270 in Florida to 200 in boreal ecosystems. Similarly, for forests less than 100 years old, maximum uptake (g C m−2y−1) was 1180 in Florida mangroves and 210 in boreal ecosystems. More temperate forests had intermediate fluxes. Boreal ecosystems were relatively time invariant after 20 years, whereas western ecosystems tended to increase in carbon gain over time. This was driven mostly by gross photosynthetic production (GPP) because total ecosystem respiration (ER) and heterotrophic respiration were relatively invariant with age. GPP/ER was as low as 0.2 immediately following stand-replacing disturbance reaching a constant value of 1.2 after 20 years. NEP following insect defoliations and silvicultural thinning showed lesser changes than stand-replacing events, with decreases in the year of disturbance followed by rapid recovery. NEP decreased in a mangrove ecosystem following Hurricane Wilma because of a decrease in GPP and an increase in ER.

Physiological responses of a black spruce forest to weather

We used eddy covariance to measure the net exchange of CO2 between the atmosphere and a black spruce (Picea mariana) forest in Manitoba for 16,500 hours from March 16, 1994 to October 31, 1996. We then partitioned net exchange into gross photosynthesis and respiration by estimating daytime respiration as a function of temperature, and used these data to define the physiological responses of the forest to weather. The annual rates of gross production and respiration by the forest were both around 8 t C ha−1 yr−1. Both photosynthetic and respiratory response were reduced in winter, recovered with warming in spring, and varied little in summer. Respiration in mid summer increased with air temperature (T air) at a Q 10 of around 2 to a rate of 2–8 μmol m−2 s−1 at 15°C. Gross photosynthesis at high light (photon flux density (PPFD) greater than 600 μmol m−2 s−1) was negligible at Tair 14°C. Gross CO2 uptake at T air > 14°C increased with increasing light at an ecosystem-level quantum yield of 0.05 mol CO2 mol−1 photons before saturating at an uptake rate of 8–18 μmol m−2 s−1 at PPFDs greater than 500–700 μmol m−2 s−1. Photosynthesis in summer did not appear limited by high evaporative demand or soil water depletion.

SEASONALITY OF WATER AND HEAT FLUXES OVER A TROPICAL FOREST IN EASTERN AMAZONIA

We used the eddy covariance technique from July 2000 to July 2001 to measure the fluxes of sensible heat, water vapor, and CO2 between an old-growth tropical forest in eastern Amazonia and the atmosphere. Precipitation varied seasonally, with a wet season from mid-December 2000 to July 2001 characterized by successive rainy days, wet soil, and, relative to the dry season, cooler temperatures, greater cloudiness, and reduced incoming solar and net radiation. Average evapotranspiration decreased from 3.96 ± 0.65 mm/d during the dry season to 3.18 ± 0.76 mm/d during the wet season, in parallel with decreasing radiation and decreasing water vapor deficit. The average Bowen ratio was 0.17 ± 0.10, indicating that most of the incoming radiation was used for evaporation. The Bowen ratio was relatively low during the early wet season (December–March), as a result of increased evaporative fraction and reduced sensible heat flux. The seasonal decline in Bowen ratio and increase in evaporative fraction coincided with an increase in ecosystem CO2 assimilation capacity, which we attribute to the growth of new leaves. The evaporative fraction did not decline as the dry season progressed, implying that the forest did not become drought stressed. The roots extracted water throughout the top 250 cm of soil, and water redistribution, possibly by hydraulic lift, partially recharged the shallow soil during dry season nights. The lack of drought stress during the dry season was likely a consequence of deep rooting, and possibly vertical water movement, which allowed the trees to maintain access to soil water year round.

Diel and seasonal patterns of tropical forest CO2 exchange

We used eddy covariance to measure the net exchange of CO2between theatmosphere and an old-growth tropical forest in Para , Brazil from 1 July 2000 to 1 July2001. The mean air temperature and daily temperature range varied little year-round; therainy season lasted from late December to around July. Daytime CO2uptake under highirradiance averaged 16–19mmol·m22·s21. Light was the main controller of CO2exchange,accounting for 48% of the half-hour-to-half-hour variance. The rate of canopy photosyn-thesis at a given irradiance was lower in the afternoon than the morning. This photosyntheticinhibition was probably caused by high evaporative demand, high temperature, an intrinsiccircadian rhythm, or a combination of the three. Wood increment increased from Januaryto May, suggesting greater rates of carbon sequestration during the wet season. However,the daily net CO2exchange measured by eddy covariance revealed the opposite trend, withgreater carbon accumulation during the dry season. A reduction in respiration during thedry season was an important cause of this seasonal pattern. The surface litter was desiccatedin the dry season, and the seasonal pattern of respiration appears to be a direct result ofreduced forest floor decomposition during drought. In contrast, canopy photosynthesis wasnot directly reduced by the dry season, probably because deep rooting allows the forest toavoid drought stress