Michael P. McDonald

A Comparative Analysis of Redistricting Institutions in the United States, 2001-02

Legislative redistricting is among the most intensely fought battles in American politics. Through redistricting, political parties seek to control government, incumbents seek job security, and minority groups seek representation. I explore how the various United States redistricting institutions, and the political actors who operate within them, determined the outcomes of the 2001–02 redistricting cycle. I categorize these institutions into two types: redistricting that follows the normal legislative process and that which takes place through a commission. For those states that use the legislative process, when one party controls state government, redistricting results in a partisan gerrymander. When there is divided state government, a bipartisan compromise results from the legislative process. Commission systems differ on membership and voting rules, suggesting two types of commissions: partisan and bipartisan. A partisan commission reliably produces a partisan map, while a bipartisan commission results in a bipartisan compromise.

Up, Up and Away! Voter Participation in the 2004 Presidential Election

A record 122.3 million people, or 60.0% of those eligible, cast a vote for president in 2004. In this essay, I examine variation in voter participation among the states. I find that electoral competition in the battleground states was associated with higher turnout rates, and that where competition at the presidential level was not present, an amendment banning gay marriage or an interesting Senate election is related to higher voter turnout.

The Turnout Rate among Eligible Voters in the States, 1980–2000

Aggregate voter turnout rates in the United States have been used in many political science studies, as both a dependent and an independent variable. Most of these studies use the voting-age population as the denominator in their turnout rate measure. However, the voting-age population is not the same as the population of eligible voters. I demonstrate why this distinction matters and outline the steps to construct the voting-eligible population for each of the states from 1980–2000 to provide more accurate measures of state-level voter turnout rates.

From Crayons to Computers

Following the most recent round of redistricting, observers across the political spectrum warned that computing technology had fundamentally changed redistricting, for the worse. They are concerned that computers enable the creation of finely crafted redistricting plans that promote partisan and career goals, to the detriment of electoral competition, and that, ultimately, thwart voters’ ability to express their will through the ballot box. In this article, we provide an overview of the use of computers in redistricting, from the earliest reports of their utilization, through today. We then report responses to our survey of state redistricting authorities’computer use in 1991 and 2001. With these data, we assess the use of computers in redistricting, and the fundamental capabilities of computer redistricting systems.

Numerical Issues in Statistical Computing for the Social Scientist: Altman/Statistical Computing

Preface. 1. Introduction: Consequences of Numerical Inaccuracy. 2. Sources of Inaccuracy in Statistical Computation. 3. Evaluating Statistical Software. 4. Robust Inference. 5. Numerical Issues in Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation. 6. Numerical Issues Involved in Hessian Matrices (Jeff Gill & Gary King). 7. Numerical Behavior of Kings EI Method. 8. Some Details of Nonlinear Estimation (B. D. McCullough). 9. Spatial Regression Models (James P. LeSage). 10. Convergence Problems in Logistic Regression (Paul Allison). 11. Recommendations for Replication and Accurate Analysis. Bibliography. Author Index. Subject Index.

The Political Scientist as Expert Witness

Political nesses desegregation, sanctions training: on scientists elections, many for hiring topics political serve same-sex undocumented related in courtrooms asylum marriages, to their requests, aliens, as professional expert employer school propwitnesses on many topics related to their professional training: elections, same-sex marriages, employer sanctions for hiring undocumented aliens, school desegregat on, p litical a ylum requ ts, pro erty rights, and racial profiling, among many others. It is not by chance that wethe authorshave chosen to testify as experts in cases concerning elections (see also Cain 1999). Electionrelated cases compose a large percentage of all cases involving political scientists brought to court: a study of references to expert testimony by political scientists in published federal district court decisions from 1950 through 1989 reports that 61% involved election law issues (Leigh 1991) . Our replication of this study for the period of 2000 through December 18, 2010, reveals that 74% of such cases (28 of 38) involved election law issues.1 These cases involved issues of minority vote dilution, redistricting, alternative election systems (cumulative and limited voting) , campaign financing, voting equipment and invalid ballots, voter registration, nominating petition requirements, and a number of other issues.2 Our political science expertise is particularly relevant to issues of how political competition is or should be structured and how election structures interact with the behavior of voters to affect election outcomes and other facets of the electoral

California Recall Voting: Nuggets of California Gold for Voting Behavior

Professor McDonald analyzes voter participation in the 2003 California recall election. He places participation in the election into context, and finds it was not as high as predicted. He further finds intriguing evidence that punch card balloting leads to higher error rates, and that touch screen voting may reduce the degree of abstention for lower ballot position contests.

Public Participation GIS: The Case of Redistricting

Recent technological advances have enabled greater public participation and transparency in the United States redistricting process. We review these advances, with particular attention to activities involving open-source redistricting software.

Presidential Vote within State Legislative Districts

Presidential vote shares in legislative districts are widely available for congressional districts and are often used by scholars in their research. Here, I describe the general methodology to construct statewide vote shares within districts and apply these methods to a new database of presidential vote shares within 36 states’ legislative districts.

Rocking the House: Competition and Turnout in the 2006 Midterm Election

Despite a national tide for the Democrats in the 2006 midterms that increased the number of competitive congressional races, national voter turnout rose only slightly. Consistent with previous findings, higher turnout in some states reflected increased competition in statewide races for Governor and U.S. Senate. Unexpected surprises, however, lurked among individual congressional races. Voter turnout in highly partisan and closely contested congressional races frequently exceeded turnout for the Senate or Governors races, suggesting that partisan control over Congress motivated participation. But because there were few competitive races overall, particularly in the three most populous states, national turnout suffered. The 2006 midterm election does not signal a return to voter apathy as much as reflect an ailing electoral system, which requires reforms to increase the number competitive congressional seats to boost overall turnout.