Michael Wiseman

State strategies for welfare reform: The Wisconsin story

Wisconsin is commonly cited as exemplar of the capability of states for reforming welfare. Wisconsins welfare and caseload declined 22.5 percent between 1986 and 1994. I argue that the decline resulted from restriction of eligibility and benefits, a strong state economy, and large expenditures on welfare-to-work programs encouraged by an exceptional fiscal bargain with the federal government. Continued reduction of welfare utilization by means other than denying access are jeopardized by proposed changes in federal cost-sharing, a prospective state deficit, and the growing share of the caseload accounted for by residents of Milwaukee. Wisconsin Works, the states plan for public assistance in a post-block grant world, continues benefit reduction and eligibility restriction but expands emphasis on employment. The special circumstances enjoyed by Wisconsin are unlikely to be duplicated elsewhere.

The welfare we want? : the British challenge for American reform

Sharing ideas on welfare Robert Walker and Michael Wiseman Welfare in the United States Michael Wiseman The British perspective on reform - transfers from, and a lesson for, the US Alan Deacon Eradicating child poverty in Britain - welfare reform and children since 1997 Mike Brewer and Paul Gregg The art of persuasion? The British New Deal for lone parents Jane Millar Beyond lone parents - extending welfare-to-work to disabled people and the young unemployed Bruce Stafford Shaping a vision of US welfare Robert Walker and Michael Wiseman.

Explaining variation in the effects of welfare-to-work programs.

Evaluations of government-funded training programs often combine results from similar operations in multiple sites. Findings inevitably vary. It is common to relate site-to-site variations in outcomes to variations in program design, participant characteristics, and the local environment. Frequently, such connections are constructed in a narrative synthesis of multisite results. This article uses findings from the evaluations of Californias Greater Avenues for Independence (GAIN) program and the National Evaluation of Welfare-to-Work Strategies (NEWWS) to illustrate why it is important to question the legitimacy of such syntheses. The discussion is carried out using a simple multilevel evaluation model that incorporates models of both individual outcomes within sites and variation in program effects across sites. The results indicate that tempting generalizations about GAIN and NEWWS effects are statistically unjustified but that significant progress might be made in identifying the determinants of program effects in future demonstrations with some changes in evaluation strategy.

Investment and employment in manufacturing in U.S. metropolitan areas 1960–1976

Abstract This paper develops a simple vintage model of the relation between investment and employment in manufacturing. Parameters of the model are estimated using time series data for the US taken from the Surveys and Censuses of Manufactures conducted from 1954–1976. The results indicate that the age of the manufacturing capital stock was increasing in most major metropolitan areas during this period. Due to capital aging, the nature of technological change, and the pattern of depreciation, the amount of annual investment per worker required to sustain employment in manufacturing rose substantially. The dispersion of growth rates across areas also increased.

Welfare reform in the United States: A background paper

Abstract A remarkable convergence of political developments produced a major change in the U.S. welfare system in 1996: the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act. This article reviews recent welfare policy history in the United States, surveys the major issues in welfare reform, outlines Democratic and Republican proposals, and summarizes the new legislation. It is argued that the new initiative will increase the hardship experienced by the poor over at least the next few years. The acts changes in federal funding for public assistance plus state responses to new fiscal incentives the legislation creates are likely over time to increase, rather than reduce, the federal role in welfare finance, if not administration. The new welfare system presents an administrative and political challenge to governors and indirectly to political leadership in the nations cities. Despite reduced federal regulation of public assistance, the federal government still has an important role in progra...

Multisite employment and training program evaluations: A tale of three studies

This paper explores the gains from multiplying the number of sites used in experimental evaluation of the effects of employment and training programs. Using a multilevel (hierarchical) statistical framework, the authors analyze the role of site multiplication in three recent program evaluations. Although several experiments have involved substantial numbers of sites, the potential benefits from such strategies are largely unrealized. The authors argue for more involvement of the federal government in designing and implementing evaluations that will allow analysis of how the interaction of client, program, and environmental variables affects outcomes.

Supplemental Security Income for the Second Decade

Supplemental Security Income (SSI) is an odd combination of income support for families with disabled children, disabled working-age adults, and elderly persons with inadequate retirement incomes. Less than three percent of Americans receive SSI payments. The program faces challenges on all three fronts: Payments for children with disabilities bear little relationship to family need or costs associated with caring for disabled children. State efforts to promote transition of children and adults from general assistance and TANF to SSI appear driven by fiscal considerations with little attention to health, functioning, and social integration objectives. Measuring the impact of poverty among the elderly is hampered by severe underreporting of benefits in survey data, most notably the Current Population Survey. This paper argues that SSI serves important purposes, but that all three target populations, especially children, might be served best by gradual decoupling or at least improved integration with other programs targeted to each of the three groups.

USING BIRTH WEIGHTS TO CHART THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF URBAN POVERTY

Investigation of the dynamic geography of urban poverty is complicated by the shortage of data on household situations at the neighbothood level. This paper suggests that institutional data on poverty-related factors such as welfare receipt, unemployment, school-leaving, and crime be used for such study. The approach is illustrated by studying the changing geographic incidence of low birth weights and homicides in Oakland, California.

Metropolitan Development in the San Francisco Bay Area

This paper describes metropolitan development in the San Francisco Bay Area in the style of E. M. Hoover and R. G. Vernons classic 1950s study of the New York metropolitan area,Anatomy of a Metropolis. The analysis concentrates on trends in microelectronics manufacturing as the regions export base, new developments in the business service sector, the competition between San Franciscos downtown office sector and peripheral locations for office employment, and the changing character of the Bay Area households. Factors identified as important for forecasting development in the Bay Area to the end of the century include the competitive strategy of Silicon Valley manufacturers, the evolution of land-use controls in San Francisco and the suburban communities, and the probability of redevelopment in Oakland.

The California Welfare Reform Act and Participation in AFDC

In this paper we report results of estimation of the number of families eligible for assistance under the Aid to Families with Dependent Children program in two major California counties in 1970. Our estimates indicate that at the time of the California Welfare Reform Act the pool of eligibles was virtually exhausted. The results confirm the conclusions of earlier work by Barbara Boland; however, that work was flawed by use of incorrect program data and certain methodological problems. The eligibles estimate is shown to be more sensitive to alternative procedures for treatment of earnings than Bolands results indicate. Substantial underreporting of public assistance payments in Census data is found.