Michael Wündsch

ENSO and monsoon variability during the past 1.5 kyr as reflected in sediments from Lake Kalimpaa, Central Sulawesi (Indonesia):

The climate of Sulawesi is driven by the monsoon system as well as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Until now, mechanisms and long-term variations of these complex interacting climate processes have been poorly understood. This paper uses a sediment record from Lake Kalimpaa to investigate long-term rainfall trends of the past ~1500 years. Granulometric and geochemical data provide indications for an increasingly wetter climate (higher rainfall intensities and/or mean rainfall) on centennial to millennial time scales from approximately ad 560 to the 20th century. Highest rainfall intensities probably occurred at the end of the ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA). The trend towards wetter conditions during this time could also be detected in other palaeoclimatic studies from the region. A plausible explanation for these observations is the southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) associated with changes in monsoon dynamics. However, comparison of the results with other proxy and model data indicates that the long-term rainfall variability in Central Sulawesi is also determined by variations in ENSO. During the 20th century, the climate signal in the Kalimpaa record is superimposed by human impact. Moreover, the data suggest that two periods of disturbance occurred within the lake catchment between about ad 1090–1190 and ad 1450–1620. Comparison with fire frequency derived from macro-charcoal analysis indicates that these events were caused by forest fires which likely took place during periods of drought. Broadly simultaneous drought periods have been detected in records from East Java suggesting a regional drought occurrence affecting at least East Java and Sulawesi.