Michał Kotnarowski

Measuring the electoral mobilization of ethnic parties Towards comparable indicators

Measurement of the electoral mobilization of ethnic parties has posed a considerable challenge to those performing comparative research on the political mobilization of ethnic groups. To address this issue, we propose indicators that estimate the electoral mobilization of ethnic parties by combining administrative and survey data. Specifically, we propose two measures: an absolute one, fully isolable from context, and a relative one, which corrects for turnouts. Furthermore, we show that a particular indicator based entirely on more widely available administrative data is valid when a narrow definition of ethnic parties is applied. Our indicators for the electoral mobilization of ethnic parties allow for valid comparisons across ethnic parties in different countries and regions at different points in time. We expect these new indicators to trigger further comparative studies on ethnic parties.

Poland: Nationalization Despite Fear of Regionalization

Since 1989, Poland has a centralized party system and regional autonomist movements can be found in only two regions. Nevertheless, the degree of public interest in subnational elections has increased primarily due to the introduction of directly elected mayors at all local levels of government (cities, towns, and communities) in 2002. In this chapter we take a fresh look at regional elections in Poland. Conceptually, our analysis shows that the second-order election model has limited explanatory value to account for regional electoral dynamics. Empirically, we analyze the level of congruence of the vote between regional and national elections and look at the sources of variation. The results confirm an increasing nationalization of regional elections in Poland.

The Transitional Economic Voting Model Revisited: The Case of Poland 1993–1998

This article evaluates the extent to which the transitional economic voting model that Tucker (2006) developed to explain voting behavior in young postcommunist democracies of Europe applied to Poland in the 1990s. According to Tucker, voting behavior depends on the transitional identity of the political parties and voters’ status of winners or losers of transition. Using the Polish Panel Survey POLPAN and its data on the 1993 and 1998 parliamentary elections, I distinguish economic winners and losers of the transformation by tracing the socioeconomic situation of the same respondents through time. I find that the political situation in Poland during the first years after the transition was not as unstable and chaotic for voters as Tucker assumed. There is little empirical support for the transitional economic voting model in the first years after transition. Winners did not have a higher propensity to vote for reformist parties, and losers were not more likely to vote for old-regime parties.