Michel Dietsch

The credit risk in SME loans portfolios: Modeling issues, pricing, and capital requirements

Abstract This paper is devoted to the credit risk modeling issues of small commercial loans portfolios. We propose specific solutions dealing with the most important peculiarities of these portfolios: their large size and the limited information about the financial situation of borrowers. We then compute the probability density function of futures losses and VaR measures in a portfolio of 220.000 French SMEs. We also compute marginal risk contributions in order to discuss the loan pricing issue of small commercial loans and to compare the capital requirements derived from our model with those derived from the New Ratings-Based Basel Capital Accord.

Prudential Filters, Portfolio Composition and Capital Ratios in European Banks

European banks hold 10% of their total assets in portfolios that give rise to unrealised gains and losses which under Basel III will no longer be allowed to be removed from banks’ regulatory capital. Using a sample of European banks, and taking advantage of the different treatment afforded, under Basel II, to such gains and losses among jurisdictions and instruments and over time, we find evidence that: a) the inclusion of unrealised gains and losses in capital ratios increases their volatility; b) the partial inclusion of unrealised gains and total inclusion of losses on fixed-income securities in regulatory capital, compared with the complete exclusion of both (neutralisation), reduces the volume of securities categorised as Available For Sale (AFS), thus potentially affecting liquidity management and demand for bonds (most of which are currently government bonds); and c) the higher the partial inclusion of gains from debt instruments, the lower the holdings of such instruments in the AFS category and the higher the regulatory Tier 1 capital ratio, thus affecting banks’ capital buffer strategy. We do not find evidence that the removal of neutralisation would impact capital ratios.