Michel Magny

Contrasting patterns of hydrological changes in Europe in response to Holocene climate cooling phases.

The quantitative reconstruction of climatic parameters from pollen and lake-level data obtained at Saint-Jorioz, Lake Annecy (eastern France), gives evidence for cooler and wetter conditions during the 8.2 ka cold event. A comparison of these regional data with other hydrological records reconstructed in Europe for the same period suggests, as a working hypothesis, that mid-latitudes between ca 50° and 43° underwent wetter conditions in response to the cooling, whereas northern and southern Europe were marked by drier climate, in the latter case leading to an interruption of the sapropel 1 formation in the Mediterranean. A similar hydrological tri-partition of Europe can be observed during other Holocene cooling phases associated with North Atlantic IRD events. Data indicate, that the middle zone characterised by wetter climate conditions could have had a more extended latitudinal amplitude during phases of climate cooling weaker than the 8.2 ka event. The differences in expansion of the wet mid-European zone depending on Holocene climate cooling phases could reflect variations in the strength of the Atlantic Westerly Jet in relation with the thermal gradient between high and low latitudes.

Holocene seasonality changes in the central Mediterranean region reconstructed from the pollen sequences of Lake Accesa (Italy) and Tenaghi Philippon (Greece)

This study presents pollen-based climate reconstructions of Holocene temperature and precipitation seasonality for two high-resolution pollen sequences from the central (Lake Accesa, central Italy) and eastern Mediterranean (Tenaghi Philippon, Greece) regions. The quantitative climate reconstruction uses multiple methods to provide an improved assessment of the uncertainties involved in palaeoclimate reconstructions. The multimethod approach comprises Partial Least Squares regression, Weighted Average Partial Least Squares regression, the Modern Analogues Technique, and the Non-Metric-Multidimensional Scaling/Generalized Additive Model method. We find two distinct climate intervals during the Holocene. The first is a moist period from 9500 to 7800 cal. BP characterised by wet winters and dry summers, resulting in a strongly seasonal hydrological contrast (stronger than today) that is interrupted by a short-lived event around 8200 cal. BP. This event is characterised by wet winters and summers at Accesa whereas at Tenaghi Philippon the signal is stronger, reversing the established seasonal pattern, with dry winters and wet summers. The second interval represents a later aridification phase, with a reduced seasonal contrast and lower overall precipitation, lasting from 7800 to 5000 cal. BP. Present-day Mediterranean conditions were established between 2500 and 2000 cal. BP. Many studies show the Holocene to have a complex pattern of climatic change across the Mediterranean regions. Our results confirm the traditional understanding of an evolution from wetter (early Holocene) to drier climatic conditions (late Holocene), but highlight the role of changing seasonality during this time. Our data yield new insights into the aspect of seasonality changes, and explain the apparent discrepancies between the previously available climate information based on pollen, lake-levels and isotopes by invoking changes in precipitation seasonality.

Assessment of the impact of climate and anthropogenic factors on Holocene Mediterranean vegetation in Europe on the basis of palaeohydrological records

Abstract Correlations between lake-level and river-activity records from the western Mediterranean and palaeohydrological records from northern Africa and central Europe suggest a distinction, in the western Mediterranean region, between an early Holocene period characterised by cooler and moister conditions than at present, favourable to temperate deciduous trees, and, after 5000 yr BP, a later Holocene period with a warmer and drier climate. The second phase was favourable to the extension of evergreen sclerophyllous trees possibly reinforced by human activities. These two successive Holocene periods reflect orbitally induced changes in summer insolation. Furthermore, superimposed on this general climatic trend, century-scale climatic oscillations punctuated the whole Holocene period. Decreases in river activity in the western Mediterranean region occurred at ca. 11 500, 10 500, 9000, 7000, 4000, 3000, 2000 and 800 cal yr BP. These decreases coincided with lake-level lowering in Jura, eastern France, and glacier retreat in the northern Alps and could be associated with a temporary expansion of sclerophyllous trees. This general pattern could have resulted from an alternatingly southward/northward displacement of the Atlantic Westerly Jet.

Circum-Mediterranean fire activity and climate changes during the mid-Holocene environmental transition (8500-2500 cal. BP)

A mid- to late-Holocene synthesis of fire activity from the Mediterranean basin explores the linkages among fire, climate variability and seasonality through several climatic and ecological transitions. Regional fire histories were created from 36 radiocarbon-dated sedimentary charcoal records, available from the Global Charcoal Database. During the mid-Holocene ‘Thermal Maximum’ around 7500—4500 cal. BP, charcoal records from the northern Mediterranean suggest an increase in fire while records from the southern Mediterranean indicate a decrease associated with wetter-than-present summers. A North—South partition between 40° and 43°N latitude is apparent in the central and western Mediterranean. Relatively abrupt changes in fire activity are observed c. 5500—5000 cal. BP. Records of Holocene fire activity appear sensitive to both orbitally forced climate changes and shorter-lived excursions which may be related to North Atlantic cold events, possibly modulated by an NAO-like climate mechanism. In cases where human—fire interactions have been documented, the regional coherency between fire occurrence and climate forcing suggests a dominant fire—climate relationship during the early—mid Holocene. The human influence on regional fire activity became increasingly important after c. 4000—3000 cal. BP. Results also suggest that: (1) teleconnections between the Mediterranean area and other climatic regions, in particular the North Atlantic and the low latitudes monsoon areas, influenced past fire activity; (2) gradual forcing, such as changes in orbital parameters, may have triggered abrupt shifts in fire activity; (3) regional fire reconstructions contradict former notions of a gradual (mid- to late-Holocene) aridification of the entire region due to climate and/or human activities and the importance of shorter-term events; (4) Mediterranean fire activity appears hightly sensitive to climate dynamics and thus could be considerably impacted by future climate changes.

Possible complexity of the climatic event around 4300—3800 cal. BP in the central and western Mediterranean

This paper presents an event stratigraphy based on data documenting lake-level changes as well as volcanic eruptions over the period 4500—3500 cal. BP from sediment sequences of Lakes Accesa in Tuscany (north-central Italy) and Maliq (Albania) in the central Mediterranean. The available data make it possible to recognise a tripartite climatic oscillation between c. 4300—3800 cal. BP. A phase characterised by drier conditions at c. 4100—3950 cal. BP appears to have been bracketed by two phases marked by wetter conditions and dated to c. 4300—4100 and 3950—3850 cal. BP, respectively. The deposition of the Avellino tephra occurred during the first humid phase, slightly before 4300 cal. BP, and that of an interplinian tephra AP2-AP4 (or Pr1) around 4050 cal. BP during the dry intermediate phase. This dry median episode may be related to the so-called ‘4.2 ka event’ observed in tropical areas as well as in northwestern Italy. A comparison of the Accesa lake-level record with palaeoclimatic terrestrial and marine records suggests that this complex climatic oscillation around 4300—3800 cal. BP affected the central and western Mediterranean area. The key position of the 4300—3800 cal. BP climatic oscillation at a crucial transition from mid to late Holocene in the Mediterranean and tropical areas, deserves major consideration in further investigations.

The Holocene climatic evolution of Mediterranean Italy: A review of the continental geological data:

We present a synthesis of geological, stratigraphic, geomorphological and stable isotope data collected from continental archives to highlight the environmental and climatic differences between the first and second half of the Holocene of central and southern Italy. The beginning of the Holocene is marked by rapid environmental change. In Mediterranean Italy, between c. 9500 cal. BP and c. 6000—5500 cal. BP, average temperatures were probably higher and environmental conditions were generally stable; between c. 9000 and 7000 cal. BP, meteoric precipitation was at its highest. The end of the wetter period seems to occur later, at c. 6000—5000 cal. BP. Since c. 6000—5000 cal. BP, rapid climatic excursions are apparent in different palaeoclimate proxies, with both variability in meteoric precipitation and temperature evident. Of particular relevance is the event occurring at c. 4200 cal. BP. This event heralds a period of significant environmental change in the Apennines and, more generally, in central Italy. Following this event, environmental variability appears most pronounced and frequent. Some environmental changes during the early Holocene and after 4200 cal. BP seem to be in phase with IRD events in the North Atlantic, which suggest: (1) teleconnections between North Atlantic and Mediterranean areas; and (2) a possible influence of North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in controlling the advection of moisture over the central Mediterranean basin via westerly air masses. The archives used in this review allow us to consider climate evolution as a driver of most of the observed environmental changes.

Reduced solar activity as a trigger for the start of the Younger Dryas

It is generally assumed that changes in ocean circulation forced the abrupt climate changes during the Late Pleistocene, including the Younger Dryas event. Recently, however, it was proposed that variations in solar irradiance could have played a much more prominent role in forcing Pleistocene climate changes. Furthermore, two physical mechanisms were recently published that explain how relatively small changes in solar irradiance could have had a strong impact on the climate system. We discuss the possibility that an abrupt reduction in solar irradiance triggered the start of the Younger Dryas and we argue that this is indeed supported by three observations: (1) the abrupt and strong increase in residual C-14 at the start of the Younger Dryas that seems to be too sharp to be caused by ocean circulation changes alone, (2) the Younger Dryas being part of an similar to 2500 year quasi-cycle-also found in the C-14 record-that is supposedly of solar origin, (3) the registration of the Younger Dryas in geological records in the tropics and the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere. Moreover, the proposed two physical mechanisms could possibly explain how the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation was perturbed through an increase in precipitation together with iceberg influxes. In addition, the full magnitude of the Younger Dryas cooling as evidenced by terrestrial records in Europe could be explained. We conclude that a solar triggering of the Younger Dryas is a valid option that should be studied in detail with climate models

Late-Holocene climatic variability south of the Alps as recorded by lake-level fluctuations at Lake Ledro, Trentino, Italy

A lake-level record for the late Holocene at Lake Ledro (Trentino, northeastern Italy) is presented. It is based on the sediment and pollen analysis of a 1.75 m high stratigraphic section observed on the southern shore (site Ledro I) and a 3.2 m long sediment core taken from a littoral mire on the southeastern shore (site Ledro II). The chronology is derived from 15 radiocarbon dates and pollen stratigraphy. The late-Holocene composite record established from these two sediment sequences gives evidence of centennial-scale fluctuations with highstands at c. 3400, 2600, 1700, 1200 and 400 cal. BP, in agreement with various palaeohydrological records established in central and northern Italy, as well as north of theAlps. In addition, high lake-level conditions at c. 2000 cal. BP may be the equivalent of stronger river discharge observed at the same time in Central Italy’s rivers. In agreement with the lake-level record of Accesa (Tuscany), the Ledro record also suggests a relatively complex palaeohydrological pattern for the period around 4000 cal. BP. On a millennial scale, sediment hiatuses observed in the lower part of the Ledro I sediment sequence indicate that, except for a highstand occurring just after 7500 cal. BP, lower lake levels generally prevailed rather before c. 4000 cal. BP than afterwards. Finally, the lake-level data obtained at Lake Ledro indicate that the relative continuity of settlements in humid areas of northern Italy during the Bronze Age (in contrast to their general abandonment north of the Alps between c. 3450 and 3150 cal. BP), does not reflect different regional patterns of climatic and palaeohydrological conditions. In contrast, the rise in lake level dated to c. 3400 cal. BP at Ledro appears to coincide with a worldwide climate reversal, observed in both the hemispheres, while palaeoenvironmental and archaeological data collected at Lake Ledro may suggest, as a working hypothesis, a relative emancipation of protohistoric societies from climatic conditions.

Orbital, ice-sheet, and possible solar forcing of Holocene lake-level fluctuations in west-central Europe: A comment on Bleicher

Bleicher (2013) discussed interpretations proposed by Magny (2004) that Holocene lake-level fluctuations in west-central Europe suggest possible solar forcing of climate. He pointed out that the method used by Magny (2004) is a variant of a cumulative probability function (CPF) and cannot prove solar forcing of central European lake-level changes. He concluded that only few episodes of lake-level changes are climatically driven and that non-climatic factors were dominating. While Bleicher’s paper offers a stimulating contribution to the general debate on CPFs, the present comment is based on an approach which, in contrast to CPFs, excludes any consideration of variations in the probabilities over the time intervals given by calibration of 14C dates, as well as any distinction between types of dates (radiocarbon versus tree ring). It produces a revised pattern of the mid-European high lake-level events for the whole Holocene, supporting the hypothesis proposed in Magny (2004). Comparisons with other regional and North Atlantic palaeoclimatic records suggest that, without excluding other forcing factors, the successive high lake-level events recognised in west-central Europe reflect a combination of three main forcing factors acting on millennial and centennial scales, i.e. orbitally driven changes in insolation, impacts of deglacial outbursts and, possibly, variations in solar activity. Finally, it is clear that further investigations are still needed in order to improve the chronological data set for mid-European lake-level fluctuations, with particular attention to better defining the beginning and end of events.

High-resolution paleolimnology opens new management perspectives for lakes adaptation to climate warming

Varved lake sediments provide opportunities for high-resolution paleolimnological investigations that may extend monitoring surveys in order to target priority management actions under climate warming. This paper provides the synthesis of an international research program relying on >150 years-long, varved records for three managed perialpine lakes in Europe (Lakes Geneva, Annecy and Bourget). The dynamics of the dominant, local human pressures, as well as the ecological responses in the pelagic, benthic and littoral habitats were reconstructed using classical and newly developed paleo-proxies. Statistical modelling achieved the hierarchization of the drivers of their ecological trajectories. All three lakes underwent different levels of eutrophication in the first half of the XXth century, followed by re-oligotrophication. Climate warming came along with a 2°C increase in air temperature over the last century, to which lakes were unequally thermally vulnerable. Unsurprisingly, phosphorous concentration has been the dominant ecological driver over the last century. Yet, other human-influenced, local environmental drivers (fisheries management practices, river regulations) have also significantly inflected ecological trajectories. Climate change has been impacting all habitats at rates that, in some cases, exceeded those of local factors. The amplitude and ecological responses to similar climate change varied between lakes, but, at least for pelagic habitats, rather depended on the intensity of local human pressures than on the thermal effect of climate change. Deep habitats yet showed higher sensitivity to climate change but substantial influence of river flows. As a consequence, adapted local management strategies, fully integrating nutrient inputs, fisheries management and hydrological regulations, may enable mitigating the deleterious consequences of ongoing climate change on these ecosystems.