Michel Van Herp

Emergence of Zaire Ebola Virus Disease in Guinea

In March 2014, the World Health Organization was notified of an outbreak of a communicable disease characterized by fever, severe diarrhea, vomiting, and a high fatality rate in Guinea. Virologic investigation identified Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) as the causative agent. Full-length genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis showed that EBOV from Guinea forms a separate clade in relationship to the known EBOV strains from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Gabon. Epidemiologic investigation linked the laboratory-confirmed cases with the presumed first fatality of the outbreak in December 2013. This study demonstrates the emergence of a new EBOV strain in Guinea.

Forecasting malaria incidence based on monthly case reports and environmental factors in Karuzi, Burundi, 1997-2003.

BackgroundThe objective of this work was to develop a model to predict malaria incidence in an area of unstable transmission by studying the association between environmental variables and disease dynamics.MethodsThe study was carried out in Karuzi, a province in the Burundi highlands, using time series of monthly notifications of malaria cases from local health facilities, data from rain and temperature records, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) methodology, a model showing the relation between monthly notifications of malaria cases and the environmental variables was developed.ResultsThe best forecasting model (R2adj = 82%, p < 0.0001 and 93% forecasting accuracy in the range ± 4 cases per 100 inhabitants) included the NDVI, mean maximum temperature, rainfall and number of malaria cases in the preceding month.ConclusionThis model is a simple and useful tool for producing reasonably reliable forecasts of the malaria incidence rate in the study area.

Transmission of Ebola Viruses: What We Know and What We Do Not Know

ABSTRACT Available evidence demonstrates that direct patient contact and contact with infectious body fluids are the primary modes for Ebola virus transmission, but this is based on a limited number of studies. Key areas requiring further study include (i) the role of aerosol transmission (either via large droplets or small particles in the vicinity of source patients), (ii) the role of environmental contamination and fomite transmission, (iii) the degree to which minimally or mildly ill persons transmit infection, (iv) how long clinically relevant infectiousness persists, (v) the role that “superspreading events” may play in driving transmission dynamics, (vi) whether strain differences or repeated serial passage in outbreak settings can impact virus transmission, and (vii) what role sylvatic or domestic animals could play in outbreak propagation, particularly during major epidemics such as the 2013–2015 West Africa situation. In this review, we address what we know and what we do not know about Ebola virus transmission. We also hypothesize that Ebola viruses have the potential to be respiratory pathogens with primary respiratory spread.

Spatial targeted vector control in the highlands of Burundi and its impact on malaria transmission.

BackgroundPrevention of malaria epidemics is a priority for African countries. The 2000 malaria epidemic in Burundi prompted the government to implement measures for preventing future outbreaks. Case management with artemisinin-based combination therapy and malaria surveillance were nationally improved. A vector control programme was initiated in one of the most affected highland provinces. The focal distribution of malaria vectors in the highlands was the starting point for designing a targeted vector control strategy. The objective of this study was to present the results of this strategy on malaria transmission in an African highland region.MethodsIn Karuzi, in 2002–2005, vector control activities combining indoor residual spraying and long-lasting insecticidal nets were implemented. The interventions were done before the expected malaria transmission period and targeted the valleys between hills, with the expectation that this would also protect the populations living at higher altitudes. The impact on the Anopheles population and on malaria transmission was determined by nine cross-sectional surveys carried out at regular intervals throughout the study period.ResultsAnopheles gambiae s.l. and Anopheles funestus represented 95% of the collected anopheline species. In the valleys, where the vector control activities were implemented, Anopheles density was reduced by 82% (95% CI: 69–90). Similarly, transmission was decreased by 90% (95% CI: 63%–97%, p = 0.001). In the sprayed valleys, Anopheles density was further reduced by 79.5% (95% CI: 51.7–91.3, p < 0.001) in the houses with nets as compared to houses without them. No significant impact on vector density and malaria transmission was observed in the hill tops. However, the intervention focused on the high risk areas near the valley floor, where 93% of the vectors are found and 90% of the transmission occurs.ConclusionSpatial targeted vector control effectively reduced Anopheles density and transmission in this highland district. Bed nets have an additional effect on Anopheles density though this did not translate in an additional impact on transmission. Though no impact was observed in the hilltops, the programme successfully covered the areas most at risk. Such a targeted strategy could prevent the emergence and spread of an epidemic from these high risk foci.

Mortality, Violence and Lack of Access to Healthcare in the Democratic Republic of Congo

The people of the Democratic Republic of Congo for decades have been living in a situation of chronic crisis. Violence, population displacement and the destruction of infrastructure and health services have devastated the health of the population. In 2001, Médicins Sans Frontières conducted a survey in five areas of western and central DRC to assess mortality, access to health-care, vaccination coverage and exposure to violence. High mortality rates were found in front-line zones, mainly due to malnutrition and infectious diseases. In Basankusu approximately 10 per cent of the total population and 25 per cent of the under-five population had perished in the year before the survey. Humanitarian needs remain acute across the country, particularly near the front line. Infectious-disease control and treatment are a priority, as is increasing access to health-care. Humanitarian assistance must be increased considerably, especially in rural areas and zones that have been affected directly by conflict.

The Contribution of Ebola Viral Load at Admission and Other Patient Characteristics to Mortality in a Médecins Sans Frontières Ebola Case Management Centre, Kailahun, Sierra Leone, June–October 2014

This paper describes patient characteristics, including Ebola viral load, associated with mortality in a Médecins Sans Frontières Ebola case management centre (CMC). Out of 780 admissions between June and October 2014, 525 (67%) were positive for Ebola with a known outcome. The crude mortality rate was 51% (270/525). Ebola viral load (whole-blood sample) data were available on 76% (397/525) of patients. Univariate analysis indicated viral load at admission, age, symptom duration prior to admission, and distance traveled to the CMC were associated with mortality (P < .05). The multivariable model predicted mortality in those with a viral load at admission greater than 10 million copies per milliliter (P < .05, odds ratio >10), aged ≥50 years (P = .08, odds ratio = 2) and symptom duration prior to admission less than 5 days (P = .14). The presence of confusion, diarrhea, and conjunctivitis were significantly higher (P < .05) in Ebola patients who died. These findings highlight the importance viral load at admission has on mortality outcomes and could be used to cohort cases with viral loads greater than 10 million copies into dedicated wards with more intensive medical support to further reduce mortality.

Ebola outbreak in rural West Africa: epidemiology, clinical features and outcomes

To describe Ebola cases in the district Ebola management centre of in Kailahun, a remote rural district of Sierra Leone, in terms of geographic origin, patient and hospitalisation characteristics, treatment outcomes and time from symptom onset to admission.

Clinical Manifestations and Case Management of Ebola Haemorrhagic Fever Caused by a Newly Identified Virus Strain, Bundibugyo, Uganda, 2007–2008

A confirmed Ebola haemorrhagic fever (EHF) outbreak in Bundibugyo, Uganda, November 2007–February 2008, was caused by a putative new species (Bundibugyo ebolavirus). It included 93 putative cases, 56 laboratory-confirmed cases, and 37 deaths (CFR = 25%). Study objectives are to describe clinical manifestations and case management for 26 hospitalised laboratory-confirmed EHF patients. Clinical findings are congruous with previously reported EHF infections. The most frequently experienced symptoms were non-bloody diarrhoea (81%), severe headache (81%), and asthenia (77%). Seven patients reported or were observed with haemorrhagic symptoms, six of whom died. Ebola care remains difficult due to the resource-poor setting of outbreaks and the infection-control procedures required. However, quality data collection is essential to evaluate case definitions and therapeutic interventions, and needs improvement in future epidemics. Organizations usually involved in EHF case management have a particular responsibility in this respect.

Ebola viral load at diagnosis associates with patient outcome and outbreak evolution

BACKGROUND Ebola virus (EBOV) causes periodic outbreaks of life-threatening EBOV disease in Africa. Historically, these outbreaks have been relatively small and geographically contained; however, the magnitude of the EBOV outbreak that began in 2014 in West Africa has been unprecedented. The aim of this study was to describe the viral kinetics of EBOV during this outbreak and identify factors that contribute to outbreak progression. METHODS From July to December 2014, one laboratory in Sierra Leone processed over 2,700 patient samples for EBOV detection by quantitative PCR (qPCR). Viremia was measured following patient admission. Age, sex, and approximate time of symptom onset were also recorded for each patient. The data was analyzed using various mathematical models to find trends of potential interest. RESULTS The analysis revealed a significant difference (P = 2.7 × 10(-77)) between the initial viremia of survivors (4.02 log10 genome equivalents [GEQ]/ml) and nonsurvivors (6.18 log10 GEQ/ml). At the population level, patient viral loads were higher on average in July than in November, even when accounting for outcome and time since onset of symptoms. This decrease in viral loads temporally correlated with an increase in circulating EBOV-specific IgG antibodies among individuals who were suspected of being infected but shown to be negative for the virus by PCR. CONCLUSIONS Our results indicate that initial viremia is associated with outcome of the individual and outbreak duration; therefore, care must be taken in planning clinical trials and interventions. Additional research in virus adaptation and the impacts of host factors on EBOV transmission and pathogenesis is needed.

Unique human immune signature of Ebola virus disease in Guinea

Despite the magnitude of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa, there is still a fundamental lack of knowledge about the pathophysiology of EVD. In particular, very little is known about human immune responses to Ebola virus. Here we evaluate the physiology of the human T cell immune response in EVD patients at the time of admission to the Ebola Treatment Center in Guinea, and longitudinally until discharge or death. Through the use of multiparametric flow cytometry established by the European Mobile Laboratory in the field, we identify an immune signature that is unique in EVD fatalities. Fatal EVD was characterized by a high percentage of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells expressing the inhibitory molecules CTLA-4 and PD-1, which correlated with elevated inflammatory markers and high virus load. Conversely, surviving individuals showed significantly lower expression of CTLA-4 and PD-1 as well as lower inflammation, despite comparable overall T cell activation. Concomitant with virus clearance, survivors mounted a robust Ebola-virus-specific T cell response. Our findings suggest that dysregulation of the T cell response is a key component of EVD pathophysiology.