Michele Casini

Trophic cascades promote threshold-like shifts in pelagic marine ecosystems

Fisheries can have a large impact on marine ecosystems, because the effects of removing large predatory fish may cascade down the food web. The implications of these cascading processes on system functioning and resilience remain a source of intense scientific debate. By using field data covering a 30-year period, we show for the Baltic Sea that the underlying mechanisms of trophic cascades produced a shift in ecosystem functioning after the collapse of the top predator cod. We identified an ecological threshold, corresponding to a planktivore abundance of ≈17 × 1010 individuals, that separates 2 ecosystem configurations in which zooplankton dynamics are driven by either hydroclimatic forces or predation pressure. Abundances of the planktivore sprat above the threshold decouple zooplankton dynamics from hydrological circumstances. The current strong regulation by sprat of the feeding resources for larval cod may hinder cod recovery and the return of the ecosystem to a prior state. This calls for the inclusion of a food web perspective in management decisions.

Multi-level trophic cascades in a heavily exploited open marine ecosystem

Anthropogenic disturbances intertwined with climatic changes can have a large impact on the upper trophic levels of marine ecosystems, which may cascade down the food web. So far it has been difficult to demonstrate multi-level trophic cascades in pelagic marine environments. Using field data collected during a 33-year period, we show for the first time a four-level community-wide trophic cascade in the open Baltic Sea. The dramatic reduction of the cod (Gadus morhua) population directly affected its main prey, the zooplanktivorous sprat (Sprattus sprattus), and indirectly the summer biomass of zooplankton and phytoplankton (top-down processes). Bottom-up processes and climate–hydrological forces had a weaker influence on sprat and zooplankton, whereas phytoplankton variation was explained solely by top-down mechanisms. Our results suggest that in order to dampen the occasionally harmful algal blooms of the Baltic, effort should be addressed not only to control anthropogenic nutrient inputs but also to preserve structure and functioning of higher trophic levels.

A holistic view of marine regime shifts

Understanding marine regime shifts is important not only for ecology but also for developing marine management that assures the provision of ecosystem services to humanity. While regime shift theory is well developed, there is still no common understanding on drivers, mechanisms and characteristic of abrupt changes in real marine ecosystems. Based on contributions to the present theme issue, we highlight some general issues that need to be overcome for developing a more comprehensive understanding of marine ecosystem regime shifts. We find a great divide between benthic reef and pelagic ocean systems in how regime shift theory is linked to observed abrupt changes. Furthermore, we suggest that the long-lasting discussion on the prevalence of top-down trophic or bottom-up physical drivers in inducing regime shifts may be overcome by taking into consideration the synergistic interactions of multiple stressors, and the special characteristics of different ecosystem types. We present a framework for the holistic investigation of marine regime shifts that considers multiple exogenous drivers that interact with endogenous mechanisms to cause abrupt, catastrophic change. This framework takes into account the time-delayed synergies of these stressors, which erode the resilience of the ecosystem and eventually enable the crossing of ecological thresholds. Finally, considering that increased pressures in the marine environment are predicted by the current climate change assessments, in order to avoid major losses of ecosystem services, we suggest that marine management approaches should incorporate knowledge on environmental thresholds and develop tools that consider regime shift dynamics and characteristics. This grand challenge can only be achieved through a holistic view of marine ecosystem dynamics as evidenced by this theme issue.

Effects of Altered Offshore Food Webs on Coastal Ecosystems Emphasize the Need for Cross-Ecosystem Management

By mainly targeting larger predatory fish, commercial fisheries have indirectly promoted rapid increases in densities of their prey; smaller predatory fish like sprat, stickleback and gobies. This process, known as mesopredator release, has effectively transformed many marine offshore basins into mesopredator-dominated ecosystems. In this article, we discuss recent indications of trophic cascades on the Atlantic and Baltic coasts of Sweden, where increased abundances of mesopredatory fish are linked to increased nearshore production and biomass of ephemeral algae. Based on synthesis of monitoring data, we suggest that offshore exploitation of larger predatory fish has contributed to the increase in mesopredator fish also along the coasts, with indirect negative effects on important benthic habitats and coastal water quality. The results emphasize the need to rebuild offshore and coastal populations of larger predatory fish to levels where they regain their control over lower trophic levels and important links between offshore and coastal systems are restored.

Diel spatial distribution and feeding activity of herring ( Clupea harengus) and sprat (Sprattus sprattus) in the Baltic Sea

We analysed Baltic Sea pelagic fish (herring and sprat) spatial and temporal distribution, size distribution at different depths and time of the day and diel feeding pattern. In 1995 the study area was investigated by acoustic survey for 3 d, 3, 4 and 11 October, to investigate spatial and temporal distribution of pelagic fish. The area was divided in four different transects forming a survey quadrate of 15 nautical miles of side. The survey quadrate was ensonified each day four times in the 24 h. In 1997 the acoustic survey was conducted in the same area and in the same week of the year to analyse the diel feeding cycle of herring and sprat and their size distribution by depth and time of the day using pelagic trawls. Fish abundance, from 1995 survey, was statistically different among days and survey quadrates. However, from our data it is not clear whether the variation stems from random dispersion or directed movements occurring at the temporal small-scale. Pelagic fish were dispersed during the night at the surface and aggregated during the day at the bottom. They aggregated at dawn and dispersed at dusk at the surface. For herring this distribution pattern coincided with peaks of stomach fullness analysed in the 1997 survey, while sprat seemed to continue feeding during the whole day time. Larger herring were deeper in the water column than smaller individuals. Diel vertical migrations (DVM) of pelagic fish likely mirrored zooplankton diel vertical movements and it was reasonably in response to optimal predation conditions in the sea and possibly intertwined with predation avoidance and bioenergetic optimisation.

Local Environmental Conditions Shape Generalist But Not Specialist Components of Microbial Metacommunities in the Baltic Sea

Marine microbes exhibit biogeographical patterns linked with fluxes of matter and energy. Yet, knowledge of the mechanisms shaping bacterioplankton community assembly across temporal scales remains poor. We examined bacterioplankton 16S rRNA gene fragments obtained from Baltic Sea transects to determine phylogenetic relatedness and assembly processes coupled with niche breadth. Communities were phylogenetically more related over time than expected by chance, albeit with considerable temporal variation. Hence, habitat filtering, i.e., local environmental conditions, rather than competition structured bacterioplankton communities in summer but not in spring or autumn. Species sorting (SS) was the dominant assembly process, but temporal and taxonomical variation in mechanisms was observed. For May communities, Cyanobacteria, Actinobacteria, Alpha- and Betaproteobacteria exhibited SS while Bacteroidetes and Verrucomicrobia were assembled by SS and mass effect. Concomitantly, Gammaproteobacteria were assembled by the neutral model and patch dynamics. Temporal variation in habitat filtering and dispersal highlights the impact of seasonally driven reorganization of microbial communities. Typically abundant Baltic Sea populations such as the NS3a marine group (Bacteroidetes) and the SAR86 and SAR11 clade had the highest niche breadth. The verrucomicrobial Spartobacteria population also exhibited high niche breadth. Surprisingly, variation in bacterioplankton community composition was regulated by environmental factors for generalist taxa but not specialists. Our results suggest that generalists such as NS3a, SAR86, and SAR11 are reorganized to a greater extent by changes in the environment compared to specialists and contribute more strongly to determining overall biogeographical patterns of marine bacterial communities.

Predator transitory spillover induces trophic cascades in ecological sinks

Understanding the effects of cross-system fluxes is fundamental in ecosystem ecology and biological conservation. Source-sink dynamics and spillover processes may link adjacent ecosystems by movement of organisms across system boundaries. However, effects of temporal variability in these cross-system fluxes on a whole marine ecosystem structure have not yet been presented. Here we show, using 35 y of multitrophic data series from the Baltic Sea, that transitory spillover of the top-predator cod from its main distribution area produces cascading effects in the whole food web of an adjacent and semi-isolated ecosystem. At varying population size, cod expand/contract their distribution range and invade/retreat from the neighboring Gulf of Riga, thereby affecting the local prey population of herring and, indirectly, zooplankton and phytoplankton via top-down control. The Gulf of Riga can be considered for cod a “true sink” habitat, where in the absence of immigration from the source areas of the central Baltic Sea the cod population goes extinct due to the absence of suitable spawning grounds. Our results add a metaecosystem perspective to the ongoing intense scientific debate on the key role of top predators in structuring natural systems. The integration of regional and local processes is central to predict species and ecosystem responses to future climate changes and ongoing anthropogenic disturbances.

Spatial and temporal density dependence regulates the condition of central Baltic Sea clupeids: compelling evidence using an extensive international acoustic survey

For the first time an international acoustic survey dataset covering three decades was used to investigate the factors shaping the spatial and temporal patterns in the condition of sprat and herring in the Baltic Proper. Generalized additive models showed that the spatial and temporal fluctuations in sprat density have been the main drivers of the spatio-temporal changes of both sprat and herring condition, evidencing intra- and inter-specific density dependence mediated by the size and distribution of the sprat population. Salinity was also an important predictor of herring condition, whereas temperature explained only a minor part of sprat model deviance. Herring density was an additional albeit weak significant predictor for herring condition, evidencing also intra-specific density dependence within the herring population. For both species, condition was high and similar in all areas of the Baltic Proper until the early 1990s, coincident with low sprat densities. Afterwards, a drop in condition occurred and a clear south–north pattern emerged. The drop in condition after the early 1990s was stronger in the northern areas, where sprat population increased the most. We suggest that the increase in sprat density in the northern areas, and the consequent spatial differentiation in clupeid condition, have been triggered by the almost total disappearance of the predator cod from the northern Baltic Proper. This study provides a step forward in understanding clupeid condition in the Baltic Sea, presenting evidence that density-dependent mechanisms also operate at the spatial scale within stock units. This stresses the importance of spatio-temporal considerations in the management of exploited fish.

The influence of biotic and abiotic factors on the growth of sprat (Sprattus sprattus) in the Baltic Sea

Abstract We analysed spatial and temporal patterns of condition factor (CF) of sprat (Sprattus sprattus) between 1986 and 2000 in different areas of the Baltic proper. Results showed a moderate increase in CF between 1986 and 1989. Afterwards, an abrupt decrease in CF, between 22% and 29%, occurred in all the areas of the Baltic proper. However, from 1998 and onwards, CF increased compared to the previous years. Weight-at-age and CF of Baltic herring showed a similar pattern in the same period. Several factors affecting variability of sprat CF were evaluated. Data showed that sprat CF was density-dependent and possibly related to the pelagic fish abundance and individual food intake. Temperature did not influence sprat CF while salinity seemed to affect variability of sprat CF in the northern Baltic proper. Changes in salinity levels may shape pelagic fish growth rates both indirectly changing the zooplankton community structure and abundance and/or directly via fish physiology and metabolisms.

The genetic basis for ecological adaptation of the Atlantic herring revealed by genome sequencing

Ecological adaptation is of major relevance to speciation and sustainable population management, but the underlying genetic factors are typically hard to study in natural populations due to genetic differentiation caused by natural selection being confounded with genetic drift in subdivided populations. Here, we use whole genome population sequencing of Atlantic and Baltic herring to reveal the underlying genetic architecture at an unprecedented detailed resolution for both adaptation to a new niche environment and timing of reproduction. We identify almost 500 independent loci associated with a recent niche expansion from marine (Atlantic Ocean) to brackish waters (Baltic Sea), and more than 100 independent loci showing genetic differentiation between spring- and autumn-spawning populations irrespective of geographic origin. Our results show that both coding and non-coding changes contribute to adaptation. Haplotype blocks, often spanning multiple genes and maintained by selection, are associated with genetic differentiation. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.12081.001