Michelle Gillies

Sex differences in incidence, mortality, and survival in individuals with stroke in Scotland, 1986 to 2005.

Background and Purpose— The aim of this study was to examine the effect of sex across different age groups and over time for stroke incidence, 30-day case-fatality, and mortality. Methods— All first hospitalizations for stroke in Scotland (1986 to 2005) were identified using linked morbidity and mortality data. Age-specific rate ratios (RRs) for comparing women with men for both incidence and mortality were modeled with adjustment for study year and socioeconomic deprivation. Logistic regression was used to model 30-day case-fatality. Results— Women had a lower incidence of first hospitalization than men and size of effect varied with age (55 to 64 years, RR=0.65, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.66; ≥85 years, RR=0.94, 95% CI 0.91 to 0.96). Women aged 55 to 84 years had lower mortality than men and again size of effect varied with age (65 to 74 years, RR=0.79, 95% CI 0.76 to 0.81); 75 to 84 years, RR=0.94, 95% CI 0.92 to 0.95). Conversely, women aged ≥85 years had 15% higher stroke mortality than men (RR=1.15, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.18). Adjusted risk of death within 30 days was significantly higher in women than men, and this difference increased over the 20-year period in all age groups (adjusted OR in 55 to 64 year olds 1.23, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.33 in 1986 and 1.51, 95% CI 1.39 to 1.63 in 2005). Conclusions— We observed lower rates of incidence and mortality in younger women than men. However, higher numbers of older women in the population mean that the absolute burden of stroke is greater in women. Short-term case-fatality is greater in women of all ages and, worryingly, these differences have increased from 1986 to 2005.

Overcoming barriers to engaging socio-economically disadvantaged populations in CHD primary prevention: a qualitative study.

BackgroundPreventative medicine has become increasingly important in efforts to reduce the burden of chronic disease in industrialised countries. However, interventions that fail to recruit socio-economically representative samples may widen existing health inequalities. This paper explores the barriers and facilitators to engaging a socio-economically disadvantaged (SED) population in primary prevention for coronary heart disease (CHD).MethodsThe primary prevention element of Have a Heart Paisley (HaHP) offered risk screening to all eligible individuals. The programme employed two approaches to engaging with the community: a) a social marketing campaign and b) a community development project adopting primarily face-to-face canvassing. Individuals living in areas of SED were under-recruited via the social marketing approach, but successfully recruited via face-to-face canvassing. This paper reports on focus group discussions with participants, exploring their perceptions about and experiences of both approaches.ResultsVarious reasons were identified for low uptake of risk screening amongst individuals living in areas of high SED in response to the social marketing campaign and a number of ways in which the face-to-face canvassing approach overcame these barriers were identified. These have been categorised into four main themes: (1) processes of engagement; (2) issues of understanding; (3) design of the screening service and (4) the priority accorded to screening. The most immediate barriers to recruitment were the invitation letter, which often failed to reach its target, and the general distrust of postal correspondence. In contrast, participants were positive about the face-to-face canvassing approach. Participants expressed a lack of knowledge and understanding about CHD and their risk of developing it and felt there was a lack of clarity in the information provided in the mailing in terms of the process and value of screening. In contrast, direct face-to-face contact meant that outreach workers could explain what to expect. Participants felt that the procedure for uptake of screening was demanding and inflexible, but that the drop-in sessions employed by the community development project had a major impact on recruitment and retention.ConclusionSocio-economically disadvantaged individuals can be hard-to-reach; engagement requires strategies tailored to the needs of the target population rather than a population-wide approach.

Estimating the impact of stroke unit care in a whole population: an epidemiological study using routine data

Background and purpose Randomised trials indicate that organised inpatient (stroke unit) care has an important impact on patient outcomes with an absolute risk difference (ARD) of 3% for survival and 5% for returning home. However, it is unclear what impact this complex intervention actually has in routine practice. A comprehensive national dataset was used to study the impact of stroke unit implementation. Methods The Scottish linked discharge database was used to identify all patients admitted to hospital with an incident stroke. Analyses compared case fatality and discharge home (adjusted for age, sex, deprivation and comorbidity) for hospitals with or without a stroke unit during four consecutive study periods: 1986–1990, 1991–1995, 1996–2000 and 2001–2005. Results During the study period, the percentage of admissions to hospitals that had a stroke unit increased from 0% to 87%, the 6 month case fatality decreased from 45% to 29% and discharges home increased from 46% to 59%. Adjusted ORs (95% CI) for case fatality (stroke unit versus no unit) in each study period were as follows: not calculable (no units before 1991), 0.83 (0.78–0.89), 0.90 (0.86–0.94) and 0.87 (0.82–0.91). These equate to an ARD of 3.0% over the whole study period. Equivalent data for discharge home indicated an increased odds of discharge home: not calculable, 1.23 (1.15–1.31), 1.15 (1.10–1.21) and 1.17 (1.11–1.23) with an overall ARD of 5%. Conclusions These results indicate a positive impact of a policy of stroke unit care on case fatality and discharge home. The estimated impact, after adjusting for case mix, appears very similar to that calculated using clinical trial data.

Age- and Sex-Specific Trends in Fatal Incidence and Hospitalized Incidence of Stroke in Scotland, 1986 to 2005

Background—Temporal trends in stroke incidence are unclear. We aimed to examine age- and sex-specific temporal trends in incidence of fatal and nonfatal hospitalized stroke in Scotland from 1986 to 2005. Methods and Results—Mean age at the time of first stroke was 70.8 (SD, 12.9) years in men and 76.4 (12.9) years in women. Between 1986 and 2005, rates fell in men from 235 (95% CI, 229 to 242) to 149 (144 to 154) and in women from 299 (292 to 306) to 182 (177 to 188). Poisson modeling showed that temporal trends were influenced by age with declines in incidence of hospitalized stroke starting later in younger than older age groups. In both men and women aged under 55 years, the overall incidence rate of stroke was significantly higher in 2005 than in 1986. Conclusions—We report in a whole country that the overall incidence of stroke declined steadily and substantially between 1986 and 2005, with a relative reduction in the risk of stroke of 31% in men and 42% in women. Reductions in rates of both hospitalized and nonhospitalized fatal stroke contributed to this overall decline. The increase in incident stroke rates in young people is of concern.

The provision of non-needle/syringe drug injecting paraphernalia in the primary prevention of HCV among IDU: a systematic review

BackgroundSharing drug injecting paraphernalia other than needles and syringes (N/S) has been implicated in the transmission of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) among injecting drug users (IDU). We aimed to determine whether the provision of sterile non-N/S injecting paraphernalia reduces injecting risk behaviours or HCV transmission among IDU.MethodsA systematic search of seven databases and the grey literature for articles published January 1989-February 2010 was undertaken. Thirteen studies (twelve observational and one non-randomized uncontrolled pilot intervention) were identified and appraised for study design and quality by two investigators.ResultsNo studies examined the association between the provision of non-N/S injecting paraphernalia and incident HCV infection. One cross-sectional study found that individuals who frequently, compared to those who infrequently, used sterile cookers and water, were less likely to report prevalent HCV infection. Another found no association between the uptake of sterile non-N/S injecting paraphernalia and self-reported sharing of this paraphernalia. The remaining observational studies used attendance at needle and syringe exchange programmes (NSP) or safer injection facilities (SIF) that provided non-N/S injecting paraphernalia as a proxy measure. Eight studies presented adjusted odds ratios, ranging from 0.3 to 0.9, suggesting a reduced likelihood of self-reported sharing of non-N/S injecting paraphernalia associated with use of NSP or SIF. There was substantial uncertainty associated with these estimates however. Three unadjusted studies reported a reduction in the prevalence of sharing of non-N/S injecting paraphernalia over time among NSP users. Only one study reported an adjusted temporal trend in the prevalence of sharing non-N/S injecting paraphernalia, finding higher rates among non-NSP users than NSP users at each time point, and a greater reduction in sharing among non-NSP than NSP users over time. Study limitations included the use of convenience samples, self-reported exposure and outcome measures, flawed classification of the exposed and unexposed groups, and inadequate adjustment for potential confounding variables.ConclusionsThe evidence to demonstrate that the provision of sterile non-N/S injecting paraphernalia reduces HCV transmission or modifies injecting risk behaviours is currently limited by an insufficient volume and quality of studies. Further research is required to inform practice and policy in this area.

Temporal trends in hospitalisation for stroke recurrence following incident hospitalisation for stroke in Scotland

BackgroundThere are few studies that have investigated temporal trends in risk of recurrent stroke. The aim of this study was to examine temporal trends in hospitalisation for stroke recurrence following incident hospitalisation for stroke in Scotland during 1986 to 2001.MethodsUnadjusted survival analysis of time to first event, hospitalisation for recurrent stroke or death, was undertaken using the cumulative incidence method which takes into account competing risks. Regression on cumulative incidence functions was used to model the temporal trends of first recurrent stroke with adjustment for age, sex, socioeconomic status and comorbidity. Complete five year follow-up was obtained for all patients. Restricted cubic splines were used to determine the best fitting relationship between the survival events and study year.ResultsThere were 128,511 incident hospitalisations for stroke in Scotland between 1986 and 2001, 57,351 (45%) in men. A total of 13,835 (10.8%) patients had a recurrent hospitalisation for stroke within five years of their incident hospitalisation. Another 74,220 (57.8%) patients died within five years of their incident hospitalisation without first having a recurrent hospitalisation for stroke. Comparing incident stroke hospitalisations in 2001 with 1986, the adjusted risk of recurrent stroke hospitalisation decreased by 27%, HR = 0.73 95% CI (0.67 to 0.78), and the adjusted risk of death being the first event decreased by 28%, HR = 0.72 (0.70 to 0.75).ConclusionsOver the 15-year period approximately 1 in 10 patients with an incident hospitalisation for stroke in Scotland went on to have a hospitalisation for recurrent stroke within five years. Approximately 6 in 10 patients died within five years without first having a recurrent stroke hospitalisation. Using hospitalisation and death data from an entire country over a 20-year period we have been able to demonstrate not only an improvement in survival following an incident stroke, but also a reduction in the risk of a recurrent event.

Trends in incidence and in short term survival following a subarachnoid haemorrhage in Scotland, 1986-2005: a retrospective cohort study.

BackgroundTo examine age and sex specific incidence and 30 day case fatality for subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH) in Scotland over a 20 year period.MethodsA retrospective cohort study using routine hospital discharge data linked to death records.ResultsBetween 1986 and 2005, 12,056 individuals experienced an incident SAH. Of these 10,113 (84%) survived to reach hospital. Overall age-standardised incidence rates were greater in women than men and remained relatively stable over the study period. In 2005, incidence in women was 12.8 (95% CI 11.5 to 14.2) and in men 7.9 (95% CI 6.9 to 9.1). 30 day case fatality in individuals hospitalised with SAH declined substantially, falling from 30.0% in men and 33.9% in women in 1986-1990 to 24.5% in men and 29.1% in women in 2001-2005. For both men and women, the largest reductions were observed in those aged between 40 to 59 years. After adjustment for age, socio-economic status and co-morbidity, the odds of death at 30 days in 2005 compared to odds of death in 1986 was 0.64 (0.54 to 0.76), p < 0.001 for those below 70 years, and 1.14 (0.83 to 1.56), p = 0.4 in those 70 years and above.ConclusionsIncidence rates for SAH remained stable between 1986 and 2005 suggesting that a better understanding of SAH risk factors and their reduction is needed. 30 day case fatality rates have declined substantially, particularly in middle-age. However, they remain high and it is important to ensure that this is not due to under-diagnosis or under-treatment.

Outcomes of a specialist weight management programme in the UK National Health Service: prospective study of 1838 patients.

Objectives There is limited evidence on the effectiveness of weight management programmes provided within routine healthcare and inconsistent use of outcome measures. Our aim was to evaluate a large National Health Service (NHS) weight management service and report absolute and proportional weight losses over 12 months. Design Prospective observational study. Setting Glasgow and Clyde Weight Management Service (GCWMS), which provides care for residents of NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde area (population 1.2 million). Participants All patients who began GCWMS between 1 October 2008 and 30 September 2009. Interventions Structured educational lifestyle programme employing cognitive behavioural therapy, 600 kcal deficit diet, physical activity advice, lower calorie diet and pharmacotherapy. Primary and secondary outcomes measures Baseline observation carried forward (BOCF), last observation carried forward (LOCF) and changes in programme completers reported using outcomes of absolute 5 kg and 5% weight losses and mean weight changes at a variety of time points. Results 6505 referrals were made to GCWMS, 5637 were eligible, 3460 opted in and 1916 (34%) attended a first session. 78 patients were excluded from our analysis on 1838 patients. 72.9% of patients were women, mean age of all patients at baseline was 49.1 years, 43.3% lived in highly socioeconomically deprived areas and mean weights and body mass indices at baseline were 118.1 kg and 43.3 kg/m2, respectively. 26% lost ≥5 kg by the end of phase 1, 30% by the end of phase 2 and 28% by the end of phase 3 (all LOCF). Weight loss was more successful among men, particularly those ≤29 years old. Conclusions Routine NHS weight management services may achieve moderate weight losses through a comprehensive evidence-based dietary, activity and behavioural approach including psychological care. Weight losses should be reported using a range of outcome measures so that the effectiveness of different services can be compared.

Angina and intermittent claudication in 7403 participants of the 2003 Scottish Health Survey: Impact on general and mental health, quality of life and five-year mortality

BACKGROUND Angina and intermittent claudication impair function and mobility and reduce health-related quality of life. Both symptoms have similar etiology, yet the physical and psychological impacts of these symptoms are rarely studied in community-based cohorts or in individuals with isolated symptoms. METHODS The 2003 Scottish Health Survey was a cross-sectional survey which enrolled a random sample of individuals aged 16-95 years living in Scotland. The Rose Angina Questionnaire, the Edinburgh Claudication Questionnaire, the Short Form-12 (SF-12) and the General Health Questionnaire were completed. Self-assessed general health was reported. Survey results were linked to national death records and mortality at five years was calculated. Subjects with isolated angina or intermittent claudication and neither symptom were compared (22 participants with both symptoms were excluded); 7403 participants (aged ≥ 16 years) were included. RESULTS Participants with angina (n=205; 60 ± 15 years; 45% male) rated their general health worse and were more likely to have a potential mental-health problem than those with intermittent claudication (n=173; 61 ± 15 years; 41% male). Mean (standard deviation) physical and mental component scores on the SF-12 were higher for participants with intermittent claudication relative to those with angina (physical component score: 42.3 (10.6) vs. 35.0 (11.7), p<0.001; mental component score: 52.3 (8.5) vs. 46.5 (11.7), p=0.001). There was an observed absolute difference in five-year mortality of 4.8% (angina 12.3%, 95% CI 8.5-17.6; intermittent claudication 7.5%, 95% CI 4.4-12.6) although not statistically significant (p=0.16). CONCLUSIONS Both intermittent claudication and angina adversely impact general and mental health and survival, even in a relatively young, community-based cohort.

Time trends in 30 day case-fatality following hospitalisation for asthma in adults in Scotland: A retrospective cohort study from 1981 to 2009

BACKGROUND The risk of case-fatality following hospitalisation for asthma has not been well characterised. We describe trends in 30 day case-fatality following hospitalisation for asthma in adults in Scotland from 1981 to 2009. METHODS Using the Scottish Morbidity Record Scheme (SMR01) with all asthma hospitalisations for adults (≥18 years) with ICD9 493 and ICD10 J45-J46 in the principal diagnostic position at discharge (1981-2009). These data were linked to mortality data from the General Register Office for Scotland (GROS), with asthma case-fatality defined as death within 30 days of asthma admission (in or out of hospital). Logistic regression was used to explore the impact of age, sex, previous asthma admission (in the 12 months prior to hospitalisation), socioeconomic deprivation, year of admission and co-morbidity on 30-day case-fatality. RESULTS There were a total of 116,457 asthma hospitalisations; a total of 1000 (0.9%) hospitalisations resulted in a post-admission death (within 30 days of admission). Odds ratios for unadjusted and adjusted case-fatality showed a decreased risk of case-fatality from the mid-1990s onwards when compared to case-fatality in 1981. Advancing age and co-morbid diagnoses of respiratory failure, cancer, renal failure, cor pulmonale, coronary heart disease and respiratory infection were associated with increased likelihood of death. CONCLUSIONS 30 day case-fatality has declined over the last three decades, comparable to case-fatality reported in other parts of the U.K. This decline may be in part due to improved guidelines, protocols and disease management for asthma over the last 30 years. The likelihood of death 30 days following an asthma admission increased with age group and was associated with respiratory failure, renal failure and cancer.