Michiel L. Bots

Prediction of Clinical Cardiovascular Events With Carotid Intima-Media Thickness A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background— Carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) is increasingly used as a surrogate marker for atherosclerosis. Its use relies on its ability to predict future clinical cardiovascular end points. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of data to examine this association. Methods and Results— Using a prespecified search strategy, we identified 8 relevant studies and compared study design, measurement protocols, and reported data. We identified sources of heterogeneity between studies. The assumption of a linear relationship between IMT and risk was challenged by use of a graphical technique. To obtain a pooled estimate of the relative risk per IMT difference, we performed a meta-analysis based on random effects models. The age- and sex-adjusted overall estimates of the relative risk of myocardial infarction were 1.26 (95% CI, 1.21 to 1.30) per 1–standard deviation common carotid artery IMT difference and 1.15 (95% CI, 1.12 to 1.17) per 0.10-mm common carotid artery IMT difference. The age- and sex-adjusted relative risks of stroke were 1.32 (95% CI, 1.27 to 1.38) per 1–standard deviation common carotid artery IMT difference and 1.18 (95% CI, 1.16 to 1.21) per 0.10-mm common carotid artery IMT difference. Major sources of heterogeneity were age distribution, carotid segment definition, and IMT measurement protocol. The relationship between IMT and risk was nonlinear, but the linear models fitted relatively well for moderate to high IMT values. Conclusions— Carotid IMT is a strong predictor of future vascular events. The relative risk per IMT difference is slightly higher for the end point stroke than for myocardial infarction. In future IMT studies, ultrasound protocols should be aligned with published studies. Data for younger individuals are limited and more studies are required.

Common carotid intima-media thickness and risk of stroke and myocardial infarction: the Rotterdam Study

BACKGROUND Noninvasive assessment of intima-media thickness (IMT) is widely used in observational studies and trials as an intermediate or proxy end point for cardiovascular disease. However, data showing that IMT predicts cardiovascular disease are limited. We studied whether common carotid IMT is related to future stroke and myocardial infarction. METHODS AND RESULTS We used a nested case-control approach among 7983 subjects aged > or =55 years participating in the Rotterdam Study. At baseline (March 1990 through July 1993), ultrasound images of the common carotid artery were stored on videotape. Determination of incident myocardial infarction and stroke was predominantly based on hospital discharge records. Analysis (logistic regression) was based on 98 myocardial infarctions and 95 strokes that were registered before December 31, 1994. IMT was measured from videotape for all case subjects and a sample of 1373 subjects who remained free from myocardial infarction and stroke during follow-up. The mean duration of follow-up was 2.7 years. Results were adjusted for age and sex. Stroke risk increased gradually with increasing IMT. The odds ratio for stroke per standard deviation increase (0.163 mm) was 1.41 (95% CI, 1.25 to 1.82). For myocardial infarction, an odds ratio of 1.43 (95% CI, 1.16 to 1.78) was found. When subjects with a previous myocardial infarction or stroke were excluded, odds ratios were 1.57 (95% CI, 1.27 to 1.94) for stroke and 1.51 (95% CI, 1.18 to 1.92) for myocardial infarction. Additional adjustment for several cardiovascular risk factors attenuated these associations: 1.34 (95% CI, 1.08 to 1.67) and 1.25 (95% CI, 0.98 to 1.58), respectively. CONCLUSIONS The present study, based on a short follow-up period, provides evidence that an increased common carotid IMT is associated with future cerebrovascular and cardiovascular events.

Simvastatin with or without Ezetimibe in Familial Hypercholesterolemia

BACKGROUND Ezetimibe, a cholesterol-absorption inhibitor, reduces levels of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol when added to statin treatment. However, the effect of ezetimibe on the progression of atherosclerosis remains unknown. METHODS We conducted a double-blind, randomized, 24-month trial comparing the effects of daily therapy with 80 mg of simvastatin either with placebo or with 10 mg of ezetimibe in 720 patients with familial hypercholesterolemia. Patients underwent B-mode ultrasonography to assess the intima-media thickness of the walls of the carotid and femoral arteries. The primary outcome measure was the change in the mean carotid-artery intima-media thickness, which was defined as the average of the means of the far-wall intima-media thickness of the right and left common carotid arteries, carotid bulbs, and internal carotid arteries. RESULTS The primary outcome, the mean (+/-SE) change in the carotid-artery intima-media thickness, was 0.0058+/-0.0037 mm in the simvastatin-only group and 0.0111+/-0.0038 mm in the simvastatin-plus-ezetimibe (combined-therapy) group (P=0.29). Secondary outcomes (consisting of other variables regarding the intima-media thickness of the carotid and femoral arteries) did not differ significantly between the two groups. At the end of the study, the mean (+/-SD) LDL cholesterol level was 192.7+/-60.3 mg per deciliter (4.98+/-1.56 mmol per liter) in the simvastatin group and 141.3+/-52.6 mg per deciliter (3.65+/-1.36 mmol per liter) in the combined-therapy group (a between-group difference of 16.5%, P<0.01). The differences between the two groups in reductions in levels of triglycerides and C-reactive protein were 6.6% and 25.7%, respectively, with greater reductions in the combined-therapy group (P<0.01 for both comparisons). Side-effect and safety profiles were similar in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS In patients with familial hypercholesterolemia, combined therapy with ezetimibe and simvastatin did not result in a significant difference in changes in intima-media thickness, as compared with simvastatin alone, despite decreases in levels of LDL cholesterol and C-reactive protein. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00552097 [ClinicalTrials.gov].).

Association Between Arterial Stiffness and Atherosclerosis The Rotterdam Study

Background and Purpose — Studies of the association between arterial stiffness and atherosclerosis are contradictory. We studied stiffness of the aorta and the common carotid artery in relation to several indicators of atherosclerosis. Methods — This study was conducted within the Rotterdam Study in >3000 elderly subjects aged 60 to 101 years. Aortic stiffness was assessed by measuring carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity, and common carotid artery stiffness was assessed by measuring common carotid distensibility. Atherosclerosis was assessed by common carotid intima-media thickness, plaques in the carotid artery and in the aorta, and the presence of peripheral arterial disease. Data were analyzed by ANCOVA with adjustment for age, sex, mean arterial pressure, and heart rate. Results — Both aortic and common carotid artery stiffness were found to have a strong positive association with common carotid intima-media thickness, severity of plaques in the carotid artery, and severity of plaques in the aorta (P for trend <0.01 for all associations). Subjects with peripheral arterial disease had significantly increased aortic stiffness (P =0.001) and borderline significantly increased common carotid artery stiffness (P =0.08) compared with subjects without peripheral arterial disease. Results were similar after additional adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors and after exclusion of subjects with prevalent cardiovascular disease. Conclusions — This population-based study shows that arterial stiffness is strongly associated with atherosclerosis at various sites in the vascular tree.

Peripheral Arterial Disease in the Elderly: The Rotterdam Study

To assess the age- and sex-specific prevalence of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and intermittent claudication (IC) in an elderly population, we performed a population-based study in 7715 subjects (40% men, 60% women) aged 55 years and over. The presence of PAD and IC was determined by measuring the ankle-arm systolic blood pressure index (AAI) and by means of the World Health Organization/Rose questionnaire, respectively. PAD was considered present when the AAI was <0.90 in either leg. The prevalence of PAD was 19.1% (95% confidence interval, 18.1% to 20.0%): 16.9% in men and 20.5% in women. Symptoms of IC were reported by 1.6% (95% confidence interval, 1.3% to 1.9%) of the study population (2.2% in men, 1.2% in women). Of those with PAD, 6.3% reported symptoms of IC (8.7% in men, 4.9% in women), whereas in 68.9% of those with IC an AAI below 0.90 was found. Subjects with an AAI <0.90 were more likely to be smokers, to have hypertension, and to have symptomatic or asymptomatic cardiovascular disease compared with subjects with an AAI of 0.90 or higher. The authors conclude that the prevalence of PAD in the elderly is high whereas the prevalence of IC is rather low, although both prevalences clearly increase with advancing age. The vast majority of PAD patients reports no symptoms of IC.

Associations of C-Reactive Protein With Measures of Obesity, Insulin Resistance, and Subclinical Atherosclerosis in Healthy, Middle-Aged Women

Obesity, the insulin resistance syndrome, and atherosclerosis are closely linked and may all be determinants of an increased acute-phase response. In this study, we examined the relationship of C-reactive protein (CRP) with measures of obesity, variables of the insulin resistance syndrome, and intima-media thickness of the common carotid arteries in 186 healthy, middle-aged women selected from the general population. Associations were assessed by regression analysis. CRP was strongly associated with body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference. CRP was also associated with other variables of the insulin resistance syndrome, including blood pressure, insulin, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, apolipoprotein A1 (inversely), plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 antigen, and tissue-type plasminogen activator antigen. Associations between CRP and the variables of the insulin resistance syndrome disappeared after controlling for BMI but remained significant for plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 antigen only. The association of CRP with common carotid artery intima-media thickness was weak and limited to ever-smokers. BMI explained 29.7% of the variance of CRP, whereas common carotid artery intima-media thickness explained only 3.7%. The results of this population-based study indicate that adiposity is strongly associated with CRP in healthy, middle-aged women. In this population, BMI accounted for the relationship between CRP and other variables of the insulin resistance syndrome. Further studies should determine whether losing weight ameliorates the inflammatory state.

Torcetrapib and carotid intima-media thickness in mixed dyslipidaemia (RADIANCE 2 study): a randomised, double-blind trial

BACKGROUND Patients with mixed dyslipidaemia have raised triglycerides, low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, and high low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol. Augmentation of HDL cholesterol by inhibition of the cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) could benefit these patients. We aimed to investigate the effect of the CETP inhibitor, torcetrapib, on carotid atherosclerosis progression in patients with mixed dyslipidaemia. METHODS We did a randomised double-blind trial at 64 centres in North America and Europe. 752 eligible participants completed an atorvastatin-only run-in period for dose titration, after which they all continued to receive atorvastatin at the titrated dose. 377 of these patients were randomly assigned to receive 60 mg of torcetrapib per day and 375 to placebo. We made carotid ultrasound images at baseline and at 6-month intervals for 24 months. The primary endpoint was the yearly rate of change in the maximum intima-media thickness of 12 carotid segments. Analysis was restricted to 683 patients who had at least one dose of treatment and had at least one follow-up carotid intima-media measurement; they were analysed as randomised. Mean follow-up for these patients was 22 (SD 4.8) months. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00134238. FINDINGS The change in maximum carotid intima-media thickness was 0.025 (SD 0.005) mm per year in patients given torcetrapib with atorvastatin and 0.030 (0.005) mm per year in those given atorvastatin alone (difference -0.005 mm per year, 95% CI -0.018 to 0.008, p=0.46). Patients in the combined-treatment group had a 63.4% relative increase in HDL cholesterol (p<0.0001) and an 17.7% relative decrease in LDL cholesterol (p<0.0001), compared with controls. Systolic blood pressure increased by 6.6 mm Hg in the combined-treatment group and 1.5 mm Hg in the atorvastatin-only group (difference 5.4 mm Hg, 95% CI 4.3-6.4, p<0.0001). INTERPRETATION Although torcetrapib substantially raised HDL cholesterol and lowered LDL cholesterol, it also increased systolic blood pressure, and did not affect the yearly rate of change in the maximum intima-media thickness of 12 carotid segments. Torcetrapib showed no clinical benefit in this or other studies, and will not be developed further.

Common Carotid Intima-Media Thickness Measurements in Cardiovascular Risk Prediction: A Meta-analysis

CONTEXT The evidence that measurement of the common carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) improves the risk scores in prediction of the absolute risk of cardiovascular events is inconsistent. OBJECTIVE To determine whether common CIMT has added value in 10-year risk prediction of first-time myocardial infarctions or strokes, above that of the Framingham Risk Score. DATA SOURCES Relevant studies were identified through literature searches of databases (PubMed from 1950 to June 2012 and EMBASE from 1980 to June 2012) and expert opinion. STUDY SELECTION Studies were included if participants were drawn from the general population, common CIMT was measured at baseline, and individuals were followed up for first-time myocardial infarction or stroke. DATA EXTRACTION Individual data were combined into 1 data set and an individual participant data meta-analysis was performed on individuals without existing cardiovascular disease. RESULTS We included 14 population-based cohorts contributing data for 45,828 individuals. During a median follow-up of 11 years, 4007 first-time myocardial infarctions or strokes occurred. We first refitted the risk factors of the Framingham Risk Score and then extended the model with common CIMT measurements to estimate the absolute 10-year risks to develop a first-time myocardial infarction or stroke in both models. The C statistic of both models was similar (0.757; 95% CI, 0.749-0.764; and 0.759; 95% CI, 0.752-0.766). The net reclassification improvement with the addition of common CIMT was small (0.8%; 95% CI, 0.1%-1.6%). In those at intermediate risk, the net reclassification improvement was 3.6% in all individuals (95% CI, 2.7%-4.6%) and no differences between men and women. CONCLUSION The addition of common CIMT measurements to the Framingham Risk Score was associated with small improvement in 10-year risk prediction of first-time myocardial infarction or stroke, but this improvement is unlikely to be of clinical importance.

Carotid Intima-Media Thickness Measurements in Intervention Studies Design Options, Progression Rates, and Sample Size Considerations: A Point of View

Background— Carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) measurements are currently widely used in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to study the efficacy of interventions. In designing a RCT with CIMT as a primary outcome, several ultrasound options may be considered. We discuss the various options and provide a pooled estimate of CIMT progression. In addition, we quantify the effect of these choices on the sample size for a RCT. Summary of Comment— To estimate the average CIMT progression rate, we performed a pooled analysis using CIMT progression rates of control groups from published RCTs. The pros and cons of the following ultrasound options are discussed: which arterial segments may be studied; whether near and far wall CIMT measurements should be performed; whether a single image (1 angle of interrogation) or multiple images (more angles of interrogation) should be used; whether a manual or an automated edge detection reading system should be used; and whether images should be read in a random fashion or in batches. The pooled analysis showed an annual rate of change in mean common CIMT of 0.0147 mm (95% CI, 0.0122 to 0.0173) and in mean maximum CIMT of 0.0176 mm (95% CI, 0.0149 to 0.0203). Conclusions— Given the current evidence together with our experience with recently developed ultrasound protocols, we favor the use of mean maximum CIMT rather than mean common CIMT as the primary outcome measure in RCTs designed to evaluate the efficacy of pharmacological and nonpharmacological interventions in carotid artery atherosclerosis.

Carotid intima-media thickness progression to predict cardiovascular events in the general population (the PROG-IMT collaborative project) : a meta-analysis of individual participant data

BACKGROUND Carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) is related to the risk of cardiovascular events in the general population. An association between changes in cIMT and cardiovascular risk is frequently assumed but has rarely been reported. Our aim was to test this association. METHODS We identified general population studies that assessed cIMT at least twice and followed up participants for myocardial infarction, stroke, or death. The study teams collaborated in an individual participant data meta-analysis. Excluding individuals with previous myocardial infarction or stroke, we assessed the association between cIMT progression and the risk of cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, vascular death, or a combination of these) for each study with Cox regression. The log hazard ratios (HRs) per SD difference were pooled by random effects meta-analysis. FINDINGS Of 21 eligible studies, 16 with 36,984 participants were included. During a mean follow-up of 7·0 years, 1519 myocardial infarctions, 1339 strokes, and 2028 combined endpoints (myocardial infarction, stroke, vascular death) occurred. Yearly cIMT progression was derived from two ultrasound visits 2-7 years (median 4 years) apart. For mean common carotid artery intima-media thickness progression, the overall HR of the combined endpoint was 0·97 (95% CI 0·94-1·00) when adjusted for age, sex, and mean common carotid artery intima-media thickness, and 0·98 (0·95-1·01) when also adjusted for vascular risk factors. Although we detected no associations with cIMT progression in sensitivity analyses, the mean cIMT of the two ultrasound scans was positively and robustly associated with cardiovascular risk (HR for the combined endpoint 1·16, 95% CI 1·10-1·22, adjusted for age, sex, mean common carotid artery intima-media thickness progression, and vascular risk factors). In three studies including 3439 participants who had four ultrasound scans, cIMT progression did not correlate between occassions (reproducibility correlations between r=-0·06 and r=-0·02). INTERPRETATION The association between cIMT progression assessed from two ultrasound scans and cardiovascular risk in the general population remains unproven. No conclusion can be derived for the use of cIMT progression as a surrogate in clinical trials. FUNDING Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.