Michiel van Eupen

Environmental flows and its evaluation of restoration effect based on LEDESS model in Yellow River Delta wetlands

Due to freshwater supplement scarcity and heavy human activities, the fresh water wetland ecosystem in Yellow River Delta is facing disintegrated deterioration, and it is seriously affecting the health of the Yellow River ecosystem. This paper identifies the restoration objectives of wetland aiming to protect ecological and economic values and development as well as the water resources of the Yellow River. The hydraulic and groundwater coupling model and Landscape Ecological Decision and Evaluation Support System (LEDESS) of the Yellow River Delta were established to calculate environmental flows of degraded wetlands. LEDESS is a computer-based model developed and used to assess and evaluate the effects of land-use changes on nature. In this study, LEDESS is used to assess and evaluate the ecological effects and the restoration possibilities considering several environmental flows’ supplement scenarios. This included the changes of suitable habitat conditions and its ecological carrying capacities for indicator species, e.g., Red-crowned crane (Grus japonensis), Oriental stork (Ciconia boyciana), and Saunder’s gull (Larus relictus), and changing of ecological patterns. The results showed that replenishing fresh water to wetlands is one of the effective adaptive measures to mitigate wetland degradation and improve its habitat quality and carrying capacities. This study indicated that landscape ecology approach is not only considered as a good way to solve complex problems in ecosystem management but also can be used to decide on the environmental flows and assess its ecological effects in large-scale wetland rehabilitation. This integrated method could make environmental flows estimated and assessment more rational than the results of hydrologic methods. It could assist decision makers to “see” the ecological effects after water supplementing and so alleviate the contradictions between environmental flows and production water demands, and can facilitate the implementation of environmental flows in most countries with water resources shortage.

Large-scale impact of climate change vs. land-use change on future biome shifts in Latin America

Climate change and land-use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental-scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio-economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5-6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land-use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land-use expansion is halted by the mid-century. We suggest that constraining land-use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate-change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio-economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change.

Impact of agricultural expansion on water footprint in the Amazon under climate change scenarios

Agricultural expansion and intensification are main drivers of land-use change in Brazil. Soybean is the major crop under expansion in the area. Soybean production involves large amounts of water and fertiliser that act as sources of contamination with potentially negative impacts on adjacent water bodies. These impacts might be intensified by projected climate change in tropical areas. A Water Footprint Assessment (WFA) serves as a tool to assess environmental impacts of water and fertiliser use. The aim of this study was to understand potential impacts on environmental sustainability of agricultural intensification close to a protected forest area of the Amazon under climate change. We carried out a WFA to calculate the water footprint (WF) related to soybean production, Glycine max, to understand the sustainability of the WF in the Tapajós river basin, a region in the Brazilian Amazon with large expansion and intensification of soybean. Based on global datasets, environmental hotspots - potentially unsustainable WF areas - were identified and spatially plotted in both baseline scenario (2010) and projection into 2050 through the use of a land-use change scenario that includes climate change effects. Results show green and grey WF values in 2050 increased by 304% and 268%, respectively. More than one-third of the watersheds doubled their grey WF in 2050. Soybean production in 2010 lies within sustainability limits. However, current soybean expansion and intensification trends lead to large impacts in relation to water pollution and water use, affecting protected areas. Areas not impacted in terms of water pollution dropped by 20.6% in 2050 for the whole catchment, while unsustainability increased 8.1%. Management practices such as water consumption regulations to stimulate efficient water use, reduction of crop water use and evapotranspiration, and optimal fertiliser application control could be key factors in achieving sustainability within a river basin.

High Nature Value farmland identification from satellite imagery, a comparison of two methodological approaches

While the identification of High Nature Value (HNV) farmland is possible using the different types of spatial information categories available at European scale, most data used is still too coarse and therefore only provides an approximate estimate of the presence of HNV farmland. This paper describes two promising methods using remote sensing – one for HNV farmland identification and one for change detection within HNV farmland. The performance of the two methods is demonstrated by detailed results for two case studies – the Netherlands for the HNV farmland identification, and Bulgaria for change detection within HNV farmland. An estimation of the presence of HNV farmland or of HNV farmland change can well be based on high-resolution satellite imagery, but the classification method must be adapted to regional characteristics such as field size and type of landscape. The temporal variability and bio-climatological characteristics across Europe do not allow for a simple European classification of HNV farmland. Also comparison between years is complicated because of the large impact of seasonal variation in the land cover expression and the complexity of the HNV farmland definitions. Although HNV farmland detection methods are promising, remote sensing alone does not yet provide the appropriate tools for adequate monitoring.

An Ecological Footprint-Based Spatial Zoning Approach for Sustainable Metropolitan Agro-Food Systems

Based on research undertaken in Berlin, Milan, London, Ljubljana, Rotterdam and Nairobi, the EU FP7 Project ‘Food Planning and Innovation for Sustainable Metropolitan Regions’ (www.foodmetres.eu) has developed a string of assessment tools and food planning concepts that are especially geared towards the role of metropolitan regions as spatial-functional entities of sustainable food supply. Focusing on the example of the Rotterdam Metropolitan Region, this paper puts forward a spatial-analytical approach that combines an ecological footprint analysis with land use assessment and knowledge on the impacts of food chains on the social, environmental and economic dimensions of the agro-food sector. Drawing upon existing work, we have developed an approach to delineate Metropolitan Agro-Food Systems (MAS) as spatially explicit foodsheds. Taking the food demand of a city into consideration, the required amount and location of ‘local hectares’ of agricultural areas meeting these demands are identified as the starting point illustrating the challenge of feeding an urban population. Using the example of the Rotterdam region, we show how the von Thunen model can be adapted to a dynamic interpretation of the regional food supply potentials on the basis of local hectare calculations deriving from food consumption census data.

Harmonizing outdoor recreation and bird conservation targets in protected areas: Applying available monitoring data to facilitate collaborative management at the regional scale

In protected areas managers have to achieve conservation targets while providing opportunities for outdoor recreation. This dual mandate causes conflicts in choosing between management options. Furthermore, the persistence of a protected species within the management unit often depends on how conservation areas elsewhere in the region are managed. We present an assessment procedure to guide groups of managers in aligning outdoor recreation and bird conservation targets for a regional scale protected area in the Netherlands. We used existing bird monitoring data and simulated visitor densities to statistically model the impact of outdoor recreation on bird densities. The models were used to extrapolate the local impacts for other parts of the area, but also to assess the impact on conservation targets at the regional level that were determined by the national government. The assessment shows impacts of outdoor recreation on Nightjar (Caprimulgus europaeus), Stonechat (Saxicola torquata) and Woodlark (Lullula arborea), reducing the regional population by up to 28 percent. The Woodlark population size was reduced below the level of the politically determined conservation target. The output of the regression models provides information that connects implications of local management to regional scale conservation targets. The spatial maps of bird densities can help in deciding where reducing visitor disturbance is expected to result in increasing bird populations, or where alternative measures, such as improving the habitat conditions, could be effective. We suggest that by using our assessment procedure collaborative decision making is facilitated.