Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma

International Migration and the Role of Remittances in Eastern Europe

Many studies have addressed the effect of migration on both home and host countries, but few have focused on the effect of the economic flows derived from migration, especially for the Central and East European (CEE) countries. In this paper we analyse the effect of remittances on employment performance for CEE economies. To model the macro effects of remittances on the source country we proceed along the lines of Mancellari et al (1996) who extended the model of Aghion and Blanchard (1994) by adding migration. The impact of remittances on unemployment depends on its effect on productivity growth and entrepreneurial investment. In order to empirically analyse the impact of remittances we estimated a productivity equation using a set of 11 transition countries during the 1990-1999 period. We also analyse the impact of remittances on investment and consumption. Our results show support for the view that remittances have a positive impact on productivity and employment both directly and indirectly through its effect on investment.

Unemployment Hysteresis in the US States and the EU: A Panel Approach

This paper applies the panel unit root test proposed by Im, Pesaran and Shin (1997) to test for unemployment hysteresis in the US states and the EU countries against the alternative of a natural rate. The results show that hysteresis for the EU and the natural rate for the US states are the most plausible hypotheses.

Current account sustainability in the US: What did we really know about it?

We analyze the sustainability of the US current account (CA) deficit by means of unit-root tests. First, we argue that there are several reasons to believe that the CA may follow a non-linear mean-reversion behavior under the null of stationarity. Using a non-linear ESTAR model we can reject the null of non-stationarity favoring the sustainability hypothesis. Second, we ask whether unit-root tests are a useful indicator of sustainability by comparing in-sample results for the 1960-2004 period to the developments observed up to the end of 2008. We find that the non-linear model outperforms the linear and random walk models in terms of forecast performance. The large shocks to the CA observed in the last five years induced a faster speed of mean reversion, ensuring the necessary adjustment to meet the inter-temporal budget constraint.

Unemployment hysteresis in EU countries: what do we really know about it?

Purpose - The paper aims to re-examine the stationarity properties of unemployment rates in 12 European Union (EU) countries over the period 1988: I-1999: IV. Design/methodology/approach - This paper applies a battery of second-generation panel unit root tests that allow for cross-sectional correlation. Findings - The study shows that, contrary to previous empirical literature, hysteresis does not characterise EU unemployment. Originality/value - This paper uses recent advances in the econometrics of panel unit root tests. The new tests have more power than the traditional ones in detecting the null hypothesis of a unit root.

Current Account Sustainability in the US: What do We Really Know about it?

We analyze the sustainability of the US current account (CA) deficit by means of unit-root tests. First, we argue that there are several reasons to believe that the CA may follow a non-linear mean-reversion behavior under the null of stationarity. Using a non-linear ESTAR model we can reject the null of non-stationarity favoring the sustainability hypothesis. Second, we ask whether unit-root tests are a useful indicator of sustainability by comparing in-sample results for the 1960-2004 period to the developments observed up to the end of 2008. We find that the non-linear model outperforms the linear and random walk models in terms of forecast performance. The large shocks to the CA observed in the last five years induced a faster speed of mean reversion, ensuring the necessary adjustment to meet the inter-temporal budget constraint.

Is the natural rate of growth exogenous

In mainstream growth theory, including endogenous growth theory, the naturalrate of growth as defined by Harrod, is still treated as exogenous. In practice, however, both the growth of the labour force and the growth of labour productivity are endogenous to demand. This has theoretical implications for the adjustment process between the actual, warranted and natural growth rates. It also has serious implications for the way in which the growth process is viewed: whether from the supply side or demand side. It is shown for a sample of 15 OECD countries 1961-1995 that the natural rate of growth has been very responsive to the actual growth rate, and it is argued that for most countries demand constraints operate long before supply capacity is reached.

Unemployment Hysteresis in the US and the EU: A Panel Data Approach

This paper applies the panel unit root test proposed by Im, Pesaran and Shin (1997) to test for unemployment hysteresis in the US states and the EU countries against the alternative of a natural rate. The results show that hysteresis for the EU and the natural rate for the US states are the most plausible hypotheses.

Does exchange rate pass-through respond to measures of macroeconomic instability?

We argue that, theoretically, exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into consumer prices may be nonlinear in contrast to standard linear estimates found in the literature. ERPT can be higher in periods of financial or confidence crises, when firms have no incentive to absorb cost increases in their margins. We test this hypothesis applying a logistic smooth transition (LSTR) model to Mexican data. Using two different measures of macroeconomic instability as transition variables, we find that ERPT does seem to increase in periods of macroeconomic distress, which highlights the importance of a stable macroeconomic environment in reducing ERPT in emerging markets.

Exports, Product Differentiation and Knowledge Spillovers

Empirical studies on aggregate export behavior have recently emphasized the role played by innovation as the main force driving product differentiation and competitiveness for developed countries. These studies treat foreign innovation as a variable that affects negatively national export shares. We incorporate the impact of foreign innovation in a standard new trade theory model and find that, if knowledge spillovers exist, foreign knowledge accumulation could even have a positive effect on national exports. We then test the model using aggregate export data for a set of 21 OECD economies and find that the foreign stock of knowledge affects exports positively for the less advanced countries in the sample and negatively for the G7 economies.

REVISITING THE REAL WAGES–UNEMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIP. NEW RESULTS FROM NON‐LINEAR MODELS

We examine the long-run real wages–unemployment relationship for five OECD countries over the period 1960:1–2001:4. Given the theoretical possibility of non-linear equilibrium due to downward real wage rigidity we employ econometric tests that allow for the presence of non-linearities in the long-run equilibrium. We adopt the notion of ‘hidden co-integration’ suggested by Granger and Yoon. This methodology has several advantages with respect to other non-linear models. We find statistical evidence that, in general, there is a long-run positive relation between real wages and unemployment only when both are affected by positive shocks. We also find a negative relationship between unemployment and productivity. The empirical analysis is complemented with the estimation of error correction models for all countries.