Miguel Carreras

The Rise of Outsiders in Latin America, 1980–2010 An Institutionalist Perspective

One of the most significant developments in Latin American democracies since the beginning of the third wave of democratization is the rise to political prominence of outsider candidates in presidential elections. I use an original database of political outsiders in Latin America to examine the institutional factors that contribute to the emergence of political outsiders. Using a fixed effects variance decomposition (FEVD) model, I find that, in addition to the favorable conditions already identified in the literature—legitimacy crisis of traditional political parties and negative socioeconomic conditions—the rise of political outsiders is determined by institutional factors, such as nonconcurrent elections, compulsory voting rules, and reelection provisions.

Who Votes in Latin America? A Test of Three Theoretical Perspectives

Previous studies of electoral participation in Latin America have focused on the political and institutional factors that influence country differences in the aggregate level of turnout. This article provides a theoretical and empirical examination of the individual-level factors that have an impact on citizens’ propensity to vote. We test three theoretical perspectives that have been used to explain electoral participation in industrialized democracies (voters’ resources, voters’ motivations, and mobilization networks). Using a series of logistic and hierarchical models, we demonstrate that the demographic characteristics of voters (age and education) and citizens’ insertion in mobilizing networks (civic organizations and the working place) are strong predictors of electoral participation in Latin America. Our analysis also confirms the importance of contextual and institutional variables to explain turnout in the region.

Refining the theory of partisan alignments: Evidence from Latin America

In this article we provide a theoretical and empirical evaluation of the evolution of partisan alignments in Latin America since the beginning of the Third Wave of democratization. We first point to a series of limitations of the conventional framework of partisan alignments, namely their disregard of party systems that are only partially or non-institutionalized. Second, we propose a refined framework that is more universally applicable. We then operationalize our indicators and apply our new framework to every democratic country in Latin America to generate a map of the evolution of partisan loyalties in Latin America in the period 1980–2012. Our analysis reveals that the conventional view of widespread partisan dealignment in Latin America is largely inaccurate.