Miguel Lebre de Freitas

Currency substitution and money demand in Euroland

This paper tests the stability of the demand for money in the euro-area in the context of an open economy. A sample consisting of quarterly data covering the 1982:2–1999:3 period is considered. The main finding is that the U.S. dollar long-term interest rate plays a significant role in the European money demand relationship. This result holds for different combinations of variables forming the vector auto-regressive system and suggests that international monetary interdependency may be an important factor influencing the ECB monetary policy.

Portugal–EU Convergence Revisited: Evidence for the Period 1960–2003

This paper uses the stochastic approach to convergence to investigate whether real per capita GDP in Portugal has been converging to the EU15 average. The estimation accounts for conditional convergence, transitional dynamics and up to two structural breaks. It is found that per capita GDP in Portugal has indeed converged to the EU15 average, but the pace of convergence has not been uniform along time. In particular, a slow down in the convergence process is identified in 1974. This result depends, however, as to whether the choice of this break-date is viewed as uncorrelated with the data. No evidence of acceleration in the speed of convergence is found after EC accession, in 1986.

Structural transformation of Portuguese exports and the role of foreign-owned firms: A descriptive analysis for the period 1995-2005

In this paper we use a recent measure of the “income level of a country’s exports” proposed by Hausmann et al. (2007) to characterize the structure of the Portuguese export basket, its recent evolution and the role of foreign-owned firms in this process. We find that between 1995 and 2005 the improvement in the “income content” of the Portuguese export basket relative to the world average was achieved through an above-average “structural transformation effect” that more than offset a bellow-average effect of having a significant share of products exposed to an increasing competition from emerging economies. We find that the weight of exports with “high” and “very high income content increased considerably in this period, with these two classes explaining more than one half of the total export growth. Analysing the presence of foreign-owned firms in different industries, we find a higher than average share of foreign affiliated firms in products with “High” and “Very High” income content. These and other pieces of evidence suggest that foreign-owned firms have played a relevant role both in the growth of Portuguese exports and in the increase of their income content.

Euro Area membership and the probability of a sudden stop

Using quarterly data from 1995 until 2014, we investigate whether Euro Area (EA) membership influences the probability of a European Union Member State going through an episode of sudden stop or through an episode of bonanza, after controlling for a number of push and pull factors. Overall, our results do not support the claim that EA membership constituted a weakness during the recent financial crisis. On the contrary, we find that EA membership decreases the probability of a sudden stop, all else equal. We find no evidence that being part of the EA has a direct effect on the probability of bonanza. When allowing for interaction effects, our results suggest that EA membership might have mitigated the risk perception arising from higher government debt in the case of bonanzas.

Euro Area Membership and the Probability of a Sudden Stop: An Empirical Assessment: EA and the Probability of a Sudden Stop

Using quarterly data from 1995 until 2014, we investigate whether Euro Area (EA) membership influences the probability of a European Union Member State going through an episode of sudden stop or through an episode of bonanza, after controlling for a number of push and pull factors. Overall, our results do not support the claim that EA membership constituted a weakness during the recent financial crisis. On the contrary, we find that EA membership decreases the probability of a sudden stop, all else equal. We find no evidence that being part of the EA has a direct effect on the probability of bonanza. When allowing for interaction effects, our results suggest that EA membership might have mitigated the risk perception arising from higher government debt in the case of bonanzas.