Mikko Tuomi

A terrestrial planet candidate in a temperate orbit around Proxima Centauri

At a distance of 1.295 parsecs, the red dwarf Proxima Centauri (α Centauri C, GL 551, HIP 70890 or simply Proxima) is the Sun’s closest stellar neighbour and one of the best-studied low-mass stars. It has an effective temperature of only around 3,050 kelvin, a luminosity of 0.15 per cent of that of the Sun, a measured radius of 14 per cent of the radius of the Sun and a mass of about 12 per cent of the mass of the Sun. Although Proxima is considered a moderately active star, its rotation period is about 83 days (ref. 3) and its quiescent activity levels and X-ray luminosity are comparable to those of the Sun. Here we report observations that reveal the presence of a small planet with a minimum mass of about 1.3 Earth masses orbiting Proxima with a period of approximately 11.2 days at a semi-major-axis distance of around 0.05 astronomical units. Its equilibrium temperature is within the range where water could be liquid on its surface.

Indirect carbon dioxide emissions from producing bioenergy from forest harvest residues

Forest harvest residues are important raw materials for bioenergy in regions practicing forestry. Removing these residues from a harvest site reduces the carbon stock of the forest compared with conventional stem‐only harvest because less litter in left on the site. The indirect carbon dioxide (CO2) emission from producing bioenergy occur when carbon in the logging residues is emitted into the atmosphere at once through combustion, instead of being released little by little as a result of decomposition at the harvest sites. In this study (1) we introduce an approach to calculate this indirect emission from using logging residues for bioenergy production, and (2) estimate this emission at a typical target of harvest residue removal, i.e. boreal Norway spruce forest in Finland. The removal of stumps caused a larger indirect emission per unit of energy produced than the removal of branches because of a lower decomposition rate of the stumps. The indirect emission per unit of energy produced decreased with time since starting to collect the harvest residues as a result of decomposition at older harvest sites. During the 100 years of conducting this practice, the indirect emission from average‐sized branches (diameter 2 cm) decreased from 340 to 70 kg CO2 eq. MWh−1 and that from stumps (diameter 26 cm) from 340 to 160 kg CO2 eq. MWh−1. These emissions are an order of magnitude larger than the other emissions (collecting, transporting, etc.) from the bioenergy production chain. When the bioenergy production was started, the total emissions were comparable to fossil fuels. The practice had to be carried out for 22 (stumps) or four (branches) years until the total emissions dropped below the emissions of natural gas. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for land‐use‐related indirect emissions to correctly estimate the efficiency of bioenergy in reducing CO2 emission into the atmosphere.

Forest bioenergy climate impact can be improved by allocating forest residue removal

Bioenergy from forest residues can be used to avoid fossil carbon emissions, but removing biomass from forests reduces carbon stock sizes and carbon input to litter and soil. The magnitude and longevity of these carbon stock changes determine how effective measures to utilize bioenergy from forest residues are to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the energy sector and to mitigate climate change. In this study, we estimate the variability of GHG emissions and consequent climate impacts resulting from producing bioenergy from stumps, branches and residual biomass of forest thinning operations in Finland, and the contribution of the variability in key factors, i.e. forest residue diameter, tree species, geographical location of the forest biomass removal site and harvesting method, to the emissions and their climate impact. The GHG emissions and the consequent climate impacts estimated as changes in radiative forcing were comparable to fossil fuels when bioenergy production from forest residues was initiated. The emissions and climate impacts decreased over time because forest residues were predicted to decompose releasing CO2 even if left in the forest. Both were mainly affected by forest residue diameter and climatic conditions of the forest residue collection site. Tree species and the harvest method of thinning wood (whole tree or stem‐only) had a smaller effect on the magnitude of emissions. The largest reduction in the energy production climate impacts after 20 years, up to 62%, was achieved when coal was replaced by the branches collected from Southern Finland, whereas the smallest reduction 7% was gained by using stumps from Northern Finland instead of natural gas. After 100 years the corresponding values were 77% and 21%. The choice of forest residue biomass collected affects significantly the emissions and climate impacts of forest bioenergy.

Temperature sensitivity of soil carbon fractions in boreal forest soil.

Feedback to climate warming from the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems depends critically on the temperature sensitivity of soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition. Still, the temperature sensitivity is not known for the majority of the SOC, which is tens or hundreds of years old. This old fraction is paradoxically concluded to be more, less, or equally sensitive compared to the younger fraction. Here, we present results that explain these inconsistencies. We show that the temperature sensitivity of decomposition increases remarkably from the youngest annually cycling fraction (Q10 < 2) to a decadally cycling one (Q10 = 4.2-6.9) but decreases again to a centennially cycling fraction (Q10 = 2.4-2.8) in boreal forest soil. Compared to the method used for current global estimates (temperature sensitivity of all SOC equal to that of the total heterotrophic soil respiration), the soils studied will lose 30-45% more carbon in response to climate warming during the next few decades, if there is no change in carbon input. Carbon input, derivative of plant productivity, would have to increase by 100-120%, as compared to the earlier estimated 70-80%, in order to compensate for the accelerated decomposition.

Habitable-zone super-Earth candidate in a six-planet system around the K2.5V star HD 40307

Context. The K2.5 dwarf HD 40307 has been reported to host three super-Earths. The system lacks massive planets and is therefore a potential candidate for having additional low-mass planetary companions. Aims. We re-derive Doppler measurements from public HARPS spectra of HD 40307 to confirm the significance of the reported signals using independent data analysis methods. We also investigate these measurements for additional low-amplitude signals. Methods. We used Bayesian analysis of our radial velocities to estimate the probability densities of different model parameters. We also estimated the relative probabilities of models with differing numbers of Keplerian signals and verified their signifi cance using periodogram analyses. We investigated the relation of the detected signals with the chromospheric emission of the star. As previously reported for other objects, we found that radial velocity si gnals correlated with the S-index are strongly wavelength dependent. Results. We identify two additional clear signals with periods of 34 and 51 days, both corresponding to planet candidates with minimum masses a few times that of the Earth. An additional sixth candidate is initially found at a period of 320 days. However, this signal correlates strongly with the chromospheric emission from the star and is also strongly wavelength dependent. When analysing the red half of the spectra only, the five putative planetary s ignals are recovered together with a very significant period icity at about 200 days. This signal has a similar amplitude as the other new signals reported in the current work and corresponds to a planet candidate with M sin i∼ 7 M⊕ (HD 40307 g). Conclusions. We show that Doppler measurements can be filtered for activit y-induced signals if enough photons and a suffi cient wavelength interval are available. If the signal correspon ding to HD 40307 g is a genuine Doppler signal of planetary origin, this candidate planet might be capable of supporting liquid water on its surface according to the current definition of the liq uid water habitable zone around a star and is not likely to suffer from tidal locking. Also, at an angular separation of∼ 46 mas, HD 40307 g would be a primary target for a future space-based direct-imaging mission.

Short communication: Soil carbon model Yasso07 graphical user interface

In this article, we present a graphical user interface software for the litter decomposition and soil carbon model Yasso07 and an overview of the principles and formulae it is based on. The software can be used to test the model and use it in simple applications. Yasso07 is applicable to upland soils of different ecosystems worldwide, because it has been developed using data covering the global climate conditions and representing various ecosystem types. As input information, Yasso07 requires data on litter input to soil, climate conditions, and land-use change if any. The model predictions are given as probability densities representing the uncertainties in the parameter values of the model and those in the input data - the user interface calculates these densities using a built-in Monte Carlo simulation.

Bayesian re-analysis of the radial velocities of Gliese 581 - Evidence in favour of only four planetary companions

Aims. The Gliese 581 planetary system has received attention because it has been proposed to host a low-mass planet in its habitable zone. We re-analyse the radial velocity measurements reported to contain six planetary signals to see whether these conclusions remain valid when the analyses are made using Bayesian tools instead of the common periodogram analyses. Methods. We analyse the combined radial velocity data set obtained using the HARPS and HIRES spectrographs using posterior sampling techniques and computation of the posterior probabilities of models with differing numbers of Keplerian signals. We do not fix the orbital eccentricities and stellar jitter to certain values but treat these as free parameters of our statistical models. Hence, we can take the uncertainties of these parameters into account when assessing the number of planetary signals present in the data, the point estimates of all of the model parameters, and the uncertainties of these parameters. Results. We conclude that based on the Bayesian model probabilities and the nature of the posterior densities of the different models, there is evidence in favour of four planets orbiting GJ 581. The HARPS and HIRES data do not imply the conclusion that there are two additional companions orbiting GJ 581. We also revise the orbital parameters of the four companions in the system. Especially, according to our results, the eccentricities of all the companions in the system are consistent with zero.

Evidence for nine planets in the HD 10180 system

Aims. We re-analyse the HARPS radial velocities of HD10180 and calculate the probabilities of models with differing numbers of periodic signals in the data. We test the significance of the seven signals, corresponding to seven exoplanets orbiting the star, in the Bayesian framework and perform comparisons of models with up to nine periodicities. Methods. We used posterior samplings and Bayesian model probabilities in our analyses together with suitable prior probability densities and prior model probabilities to extract all significant signals from the data and to receive reliable uncertainties for the orbital parameters of the six, possibly seven, known exoplanets in the system. Results. According to our results, there is evidence for up to nine planets orbiting HD10180, which would make this star a record holder with more planets in its orbits than there are in the solar system. We revise the uncertainties of the previously reported six planets in the system, verify the existence of the seventh signal, and announce the detection of two additional statistically significant

Two planets around Kapteyn's star : a cold and a temperate super-Earth orbiting the nearest halo red-dwarf

Exoplanets of a few Earth masses can be now detected around nearby low-mass stars using Doppler spectroscopy. In this paper, we investigate the radial velocity variations of Kapteyns star, which is both a sub-dwarf M-star and the nearest halo object to the Sun. The observations comprise archival and new HARPS, HIRES and PFS Doppler measurements. Two Doppler signals are detected at periods of 48 and 120 days using likelihood periodograms and a Bayesian analysis of the data. Using the same techniques, the activity indicies and archival ASAS-3 photometry show evidence for low-level activity periodicities of the order of several hundred days. However, there are no significant correlations with the radial velocity variations on the same time-scales. The inclusion of planetary Keplerian signals in the model results in levels of correlated and excess white noise that are remarkably low compared to younger G, K and M dwarfs. We conclude that Kapteyns star is most probably orbited by two super-Earth mass planets, one of which is orbiting in its circumstellar habitable zone, becoming the oldest potentially habitable planet known to date. The presence and long-term survival of a planetary system seems a remarkable feat given the peculiar origin and kinematic history of Kapteyns star. The detection of super-Earth mass planets around halo stars provides important insights into planet-formation processes in the early days of the Milky Way.

TWO SUPER-EARTHS ORBITING THE SOLAR ANALOG HD 41248 ON THE EDGE OF A 7:5 MEAN MOTION RESONANCE

There are a growing number of multi-planet systems known to be orbiting their host stars with orbital periods that place them in mean motion resonances (MMRs). These systems are generally in first-order resonances and dynamical studies have focused their efforts on understanding the origin and evolution of such dynamically resonant commensurabilities. Here we report the discovery of two super-Earths that are close to a second-order dynamical resonance orbiting the metal-poor ([Fe/H] = ?0.43 dex) and inactive G2V star HD?41428. We analyzed 62 HARPS archival radial velocities for this star that, until now, exhibited no evidence for planetary companions. Using our new Bayesian Doppler signal detection algorithm, we find two significant signals in the data, with periods of 18.357?days and 25.648?days, indicating they could be part of a 7:5 second-order MMR. Both semi-amplitudes are below 3?m?s?1 and the minimum masses of the pair are 12.3 and 8.6 M ?, respectively. Our simulations found that apsidal alignment stabilizes the system, and even though libration of the resonant angles was not seen, the system is affected by the presence of the resonance and could still occupy the 7:5 commensurability, which would be the first planetary configuration in such a dynamical resonance. Given the multitude of low-mass multi-planet systems that will be discovered in the coming years, we expect that more of these second-order resonant configurations will emerge from the data, highlighting the need for a better understanding of the dynamical interactions between forming planetesimals.