Mila Tang

Cohort profile: Canadian study of prediction of death, dialysis and interim cardiovascular events (CanPREDDICT)

BackgroundThe Canadian Study of Prediction of Death, Dialysis and Interim Cardiovascular Events (CanPREDDICT) is a large, prospective, pan-Canadian, cohort study designed to improve our understanding of determinants of renal and cardiovascular (CV) disease progression in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The primary objective is to clarify the associations between traditional and newer biomarkers in the prediction of specific renal and CV events, and of death in patients with CKD managed by nephrologists. This information could then be used to better understand biological variation in outcomes, to develop clinical prediction models and to inform enrolment into interventional studies which may lead to novel treatments.Methods/DesignsCommenced in 2008, 2546 patients have been enrolled with eGFR between 15 and 45 ml/min 1.73m2 from a representative sample in 25 rural, urban, academic and non academic centres across Canada. Patients are to be followed for an initial 3 years at 6 monthly intervals, and subsequently annually. Traditional biomarkers include eGFR, urine albumin creatinine ratio (uACR), hemoglobin (Hgb), phosphate and albumin. Newer biomarkers of interest were selected on the basis of biological relevance to important processes, commercial availability and assay reproducibility. They include asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA), N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP), troponin I, cystatin C, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), interleukin-6 (IL6) and transforming growth factor beta 1 (TGFβ1). Blood and urine samples are collected at baseline, and every 6 monthly, and stored at −80°C. Outcomes of interest include renal replacement therapy, CV events and death, the latter two of which are adjudicated by an independent panel.DiscussionThe baseline distribution of newer biomarkers does not appear to track to markers of kidney function and therefore may offer some discriminatory value in predicting future outcomes. The granularity of the data presented at baseline may foster additional questions.The value of the cohort as a unique resource to understand outcomes of patients under the care of nephrologists in a single payer healthcare system cannot be overstated. Systematic collection of demographic, laboratory and event data should lead to new insights.The mean age of the cohort was 68 years, 90% were Caucasian, 62% were male, and 48% had diabetes. Forty percent of the cohort had eGFR between 30–45 mL/min/1.73m2, 22% had eGFR values below 20 mL/min/1.73m2; 61% had uACR < 30. Serum albumin, hemoglobin, calcium and 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels were progressively lower in the lower eGFR strata, while parathyroid hormone (PTH) levels increased. Cystatin C, ADMA, NT-proBNP, hsCRP, troponin I and IL-6 were significantly higher in the lower GFR strata, whereas 25(OH)D and TGFβ1 values were lower at lower GFR. These distributions of each of the newer biomarkers by eGFR and uACR categories were variable.

Biomarkers of inflammation, fibrosis, cardiac stretch and injury predict death but not renal replacement therapy at 1 year in a Canadian chronic kidney disease cohort

BACKGROUND Newer biomarkers, reflective of biological processes, such as inflammation and fibrosis, cardiac stretch or damage and vascular health may be useful in understanding clinical events in chronic kidney disease (CKD). We assessed whether these newer biomarkers, alone or as a panel, improve risk prediction for renal replacement therapy or death, over and above conventional clinical, demographic and laboratory variables. METHODS We conducted a prospective observational Canadian cohort study in 2544 CKD patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 15-45 mL/min/1.73 m(2), under nephrology care, in urban and rural centers. We measured traditional clinical and laboratory risk factors, as well as newer biomarkers: cystatin C, high sensitivity c-reactive protein (hsCRP), interleukin 6 (IL6), transforming growth factor β1 (TGFβ1), fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23), N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), troponin I and asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA). Key outcomes were renal replacement therapy (RRT, dialysis or transplantation) and death, during the first year follow-up after enrollment: a time point important for clinical decision-making for patients and providers. RESULTS Newer biomarkers do not improve the prediction of RRT, when added to conventional risk factors such as eGFR, urine albumin to creatinine ratio, hemoglobin, phosphate and albumin. However, in predicting death within 1 year, cystatin C, NT-proBNP, hsCRP and FGF23 values significantly improved model discrimination and reclassification: c statistic increased by absolute 4.3% and Net Reclassification Improvement for categories of low, intermediate and high risk at 11.2%. CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest that the addition of newer biomarkers may be useful in predicting death in patients with established CKD within a 1-year timeframe. This information may be useful in informing prognosis and redirect resources to serve patients at higher risk to improve outcomes and sustainability of the nephrology care system.

Randomized Controlled Trial for the Effect of Vitamin D Supplementation on Vascular Stiffness in CKD

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Vitamin D is implicated in vascular health in CKD. This study compared placebo, calcifediol, and calcitriol treatment with changes in vascular stiffness, BP, proteinuria, mineral metabolism parameters, C-reactive protein, and fibroblast growth factor 23 in patients with stable CKD. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS We conducted a double-blind, randomized controlled trial in out-patient CKD clinics in Vancouver, Canada, from February of 2011 to August of 2014, enrolling 119 patients with an eGFR of 15-45 ml/min per 1.73 m2. Change in pulse wave velocity (PWV) was measured after 6 months of treatment with a fixed dose of oral calcifediol (5000 IU 25-hydroxyvitamin D3), calcitriol (0.5 µg 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3), or placebo, thrice weekly. RESULTS Eighty-seven participants were evaluated. Mean age was 66 years, 71% were men, 40% were diabetic, and mean baseline PWV was 11.5 m/s (SD=3.9 m/s). After 6 months, the PWV decreased in the calcifediol group (mean change, -1.1; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], -2.2 to 0.1 m/s), remained unchanged in the calcitriol group (mean change, 0.2; 95% CI, -0.9 to 1.4 m/s), and increased in the placebo group (mean change, 1.1; 95% CI, -0.1 to 2.2 m/s). The overall P value for between-arm changes was 0.03. Absolute PWV change was significantly different between groups (P=0.04): the combined vitamin D treatment group saw decreased PWV (mean change, -0.4; 95% CI, -1.2 to 0.4 m/s) whereas the placebo group saw increased PWV (mean change, +1.1; 95% CI, -0.1 to 2.2 m/s). The treatment group demonstrated significantly decreased serum parathyroid hormone (mean difference, -0.5; 95% CI, -0.7 to -0.3 ln[pg/ml]; P<0.001) and increased calcium (mean difference, 0.4; 95% CI, -0.1 to 0.7 mg/dl; P=0.02). In observational analysis, participants in the highest 25-hydroxyvitamin D tertile at trial end had significant decreases in PWV (mean change, -1.0; 95% CI, -2.0 to 0.0 m/s) compared with the middle and lowest tertiles (P<0.01). Side effects were minor and rare. CONCLUSIONS Six months of supplemental vitamin D analogs at fixed doses may achieve a reduction of PWV in patients with advanced CKD. Because the treatment effect was attenuated when baseline PWV was included as a covariate, these findings should be replicated in larger populations and further studied.

The Association between Biomarker Profiles, Etiology of Chronic Kidney Disease, and Mortality

Background: Prognosis in chronic kidney disease (CKD) for adverse outcomes differs substantially based on the etiology of CKD. We examined whether the biomarker profile differed based on CKD etiology and whether they were associated with mortality. Methods: Prospective observational study of 1,157 patients, 663 with diabetic kidney disease (DKD), 273 with glomerulonephritis (GN), and 221 with cystic/interstitial disease (polycystic kidney disease, pyelonephritis or chronic tubulointerstitial nephritis [PCK/TIN]) were identified in the Canadian Study of Prediction of Dialysis, Death and Interim Cardiovascular events over Time cohort. The outcome of interest was mortality before commencing dialysis. The biomarker profile consisted of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), troponin I (TnI), asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA), interleukin (IL)-6, high sensitivity C-reactive protein, fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF23), transforming growth factor-beta, 25-hydroxylvitamin D, and cystatin C (CysC). Results: The mean estimated glomerular filtration rate was 27 mL/min/1.73 m2 and median follow-up time was 44 months. Mortality before dialysis commencement was the greatest in DKD (20%), followed by PCK/TIN (13%), and was least in those GN (8%). The majority of deaths were cardiovascular in nature, 17, 9, and 5.5% for DKD, PCK/TIN, GN, respectively. Those with DKD had higher hazard for mortality, unadjusted (hazard ratio [HR] 2.7, 95% CI 1.7-4.3) and adjusted (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.1-2.8). The biomarker profiles associated with mortality differed significantly by CKD etiology as follows: DKD was associated with CysC (HR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0-1.6), ADMA (HR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.6), and NT-proBNP (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.4-2.1), GN was associated with FGF23 (HR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1-2.8), TnI (HR 3.6, 95% CI 1.3-9.5), and transforming growth factor-beta (HR 0.6, 95% CI 0.4-0.9) and PCK/TIN was associated with ADMA (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.3-1.8) and IL-6 (HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.5-3.1). Conclusions: Biomarkers profiles differ according to the etiology of CKD and are associated with mortality.

Infection in advanced chronic kidney disease leads to increased risk of cardiovascular events, end-stage kidney disease and mortality

The risk of infection in advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) and its subsequent impact on adverse outcomes are not well established. Therefore, we determined the association of an infectious episode with the subsequent risk of cardiovascular ischemia, congestive heart failure, end-stage kidney disease or mortality in a Canadian prospective cohort (CanPREDDICT) of patients with advanced CKD (eGFR: 15-45 ml/min/1.73m(2)) followed by nephrologists for up to 5 years. Infectious episodes were classified by anatomic location and identified by positive culture, hospital admission, or use of antibiotics. Competing risk models were used to examine the time-varying risk of infection and the risk of cardiovascular ischemia, congestive heart failure, or end-stage kidney disease accounting for the competing risk of mortality. All outcomes were independently adjudicated. Of 2370 patients (mean age, 68 years; mean baseline eGFR, 28.2 mL/min/1.73m(2)), 575 patients (24.3%) had recorded infections; 378 had 1 infection episode, whereas 197 had 2 or more episodes, the most common being urinary and respiratory. An infectious episode was independently associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular ischemia (hazard ratio 1.80, 95% confidence interval 1.24-2.60), congestive heart failure (hazard ratio, 3.2; confidence interval, 2.25-4.61), end-stage kidney disease (hazard ratio, 1.58; confidence interval, 1.22-2.05) or mortality (hazard ratio, 3.39; confidence interval, 2.65-4.33). Thus, there is a high risk of infection in advanced CKD being associated with subsequent adverse outcomes.

A randomized control trial to assess the impact of vitamin D supplementation compared to placebo on vascular stiffness in chronic kidney disease patients

BackgroundVitamin D deficiency is associated with cardiovascular (CV) risk in multiple populations, including those with chronic kidney disease (CKD). The active form of the hormone (1,25 OH2D3) binds to receptors in multiple organs. CKD patients are deficient in both 25 Vitamin D and 1,25 OH2D3. Clinical trial data demonstrating the benefits of vitamin D formulations are limited, and fail to show significant benefits on CV outcomes, and have compared different compounds, in various populations, and focused on a variety of outcomes. A understanding of the mechanism by which different vitamin D compounds confer CV protection in CKD is important for the design of future studies.Methods/DesignThis 3 arm randomized prospective double-blinded placebo-controlled study examining the impact of calcitriol (1,25 OH2D3) and 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 supplementation compared to placebo on vascular stiffness, as measured by pulse wave velocity (PWV). Patients are enrolled from 2 tertiary care institutions if they meet inclusion criteria (stable estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) between 15-45ml/min, <±5ml/min change in previous 6 months), on stable doses of renin-angiotensin aldosterone system blockade. For those already receiving vitamin D therapies, a 3 month washout period before randomization is mandatory. Treatment duration is 6 months; medications are given thrice weekly in fixed doses. The primary outcome measure is Vascular stiffness, measured non-invasively by pulse wave velocity (PWV). Other measurements include BP, kidney function and serial blood levels of biomarkers. The primary analysis will compare any vitamin D therapy versus placebo for the primary outcome defined as the change of PWV from baseline to 6 months. Analysis of covariance will be used to detect differences between vitamin D preparations in the magnitude of reduction in PWV.DiscussionThis study is novel in that we are using a robust study design in CKD patients (not on dialysis) comparing placebo to different forms of vitamin D supplementation in fixed doses, irrespective of baseline values. We hope to demonstrate the biological mechanistic effect of vitamin D supplementation on vascular function in order for this information to be used in designing larger randomized controlled trials.Trial registrationCurrent Controlled Trials NCT01247311. Date of Registration: November 12, 2010.

The Variability of Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate Decline in Alport Syndrome

Background: A progressive trajectory toward renal failure is common in patients with Alport syndrome. Genotype-phenotype correlations have been well described; however, the natural history of the trajectory toward renal failure is not well described. Objective: The objective of this study is to describe the natural history of renal function decline in a cohort of Alport syndrome patients. Design: Retrospective observational cohort study. Setting: British Columbia, Canada, chronic renal disease registry 1995-2012. Patients: 37 biopsy proven Alport syndrome or hematuria with family history of Alport syndrome. Measurements: Serial estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) Trajectory of renal decline described graphically by fitting a cubic smoothing spline to patient’s eGFR measures. Various time points within a trajectory were indexed, randomly sampled, and followed for 2 years to estimate portion of progressors (>5 mL/min/1.73 m2 /y decline), stable state (0-2 mL/min/1.73 m2 /y decline), and regressors (>2 mL/min/1.73 m2 /y incline). Methods: In this retrospective observational cohort study, participants were identified through a chronic renal disease registry in British Columbia, Canada, from 1995 to 2012. Inclusion criteria were biopsy proven or hematuria with a family history of Alport syndrome. Individual patients and family group members were studied. Trajectory of renal decline described graphically by fitting a cubic smoothing spline to patient’s serial estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) measures. Various time points within a trajectory were indexed, randomly sampled, and followed for 2 years to estimate portion of progressors (>5 mL/min/1.73 m2/y decline), stable state (0-2 mL/min/1.73 m2/y decline), and regressors (>2 mL/min/1.73 m2/y incline). Limitations: Histological or genetic evidence of Alport syndrome is not available in all patients. Results: Median follow-up time was 48.2 months of 37 patients (78% male), with a median age of 36 (interquartile range [IQR], 18-47) and a median age of renal replacement therapy commencement (n = 23) of 38 (IQR = 20-52). Renal function changes were found to be heterogeneous overall, intra-individual and within families. Portion of progressors in eGFR 45-60 mL/min/1.73 m2 was 73.7% (SD, 10.3), whereas 23.6% (SD, 11.0) remained stable. Within eGFR 30-45 mL/min/1.73 m2, 45.6% (SD, 7.0) were progressors, whereas 53.4% (SD, 7.4) remained stable. A large portion of eGFR 15-30 mL/min/1.73 m2 patients were stable (54.8%; SD, 8.4), whereas 25.7% (SD, 7.1) progressed and 19.5% (SD, 5.6) regressed. Conclusions: The renal decline in Alport syndrome patients is heterogeneous which has implications for designing clinical trials of interventions.